Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:47 AM

Baylor vs. Texas Predictions, Odds

  • February 1, 2021
  • By Thom Cunningham

The Baylor Bears take on the Texas Longhorns in a huge Big 12 game Tuesday night. Tip is scheduled for 7 p.m. (ET) and will air from the Frank Erwin Center on ESPN.



Baylor-Texas Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: Baylor -6
  • Money-Line: Baylor -230 Texas +195
  • Total: 145.5

Odds Subject to Change

Baylor is the road favorite for this game, opening with a -6-point spread. Baylor has been impressive on the ATS this season, covering 12 of 16 games. Texas is 6-8 on the ATS, but is 6-3 SU at home.

The point total is set at 145.5, which Texas tends to go OVER on. Baylor has an O/U of 8-8, while the Longhorns have gone OVER the point total in nine of 14 games.

Betting Analysis – Baylor Bears

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 16-0
  • ATS: 12-4
  • SU - Home: 10-0
  • SU - Away: 6-0
  • O/U: 8-8

Baylor is one of the only teams that has a shot to derail Gonzaga. The Bears most impressive stat is both the offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. Typically, the teams with the best offense-defense ratio tend to go the furthest in March Madness.

Baylor has the third-highest offensive efficiency rating in the nation (122.1) and the eighth-best defensive efficiency rating (87.4). It all begins with Jared Butler, the teams' leading scorer along with his 2.3 steals per game being a team-high. He also averages 5.4 assists per game, although Davion Mitchell leads the team in that department.

Mitchell is the only other Bear that averages over two steals per game too, while MaCio Teague is the senior leader who averages about 15 points per game. What makes Baylor so dangerous is that they're not dependent on one player to do one specific thing.

The team ranks seventh in assists per game (18.5), fourth in steals per game (9.7), 21st in offensive rebounds per game (13.1), 14th in field goal percentage (50.2%) and fifth in total points per game (87.3). None of those are their best stats however, as the team ranks first nationally in three-point percentage (43.4%).

This is a dangerous team with a ton of depth, talent and efficiency on both sides of the court. They are the best pick to win March Madness in your pool (not futures bet) as of today based on efficiency, and the fact that almost everyone else will be picking Gonzaga.

Betting Analysis – Texas Longhorns

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 11-3
  • ATS: 6-8
  • SU - Home: 6-3
  • SU - Away: 5-0
  • O/U: 9-5

Coach Shaka Smart's absence has been somewhat relevant during the Longhorns past few games. Regardless, Texas is still dangerous and even more focused after a close loss to Oklahoma on the road.

Although Texas is not as efficient as Baylor, they are still pretty efficient overall. Texas has the nation's 60th-best offensive efficiency rating, while also holding the nation's 70th-best defensive efficiency rating. The Longhorns feature four players with a double-digit point total, leading the way is Andrew Jones.

Joens has come out of nowhere after a slow start to the season, while Courtney Ramey is listed as questionable. Matt Coleman has cooled off a bit, but still averages 13.1 points per game and leads the team in assists per game with 4.1.

Inside the Stats – Baylor Bears

  • PS/G: 87.2 (5th)
  • PA/G: 62.4 (23rd)
  • Off Rtg: 122.1 (3rd)
  • Def Rtg: 87.4 (8th)

Inside the Stats – Texas Longhorns

  • PS/G: 76.4 (80th)
  • PA/G: 66.2 (79th)
  • Off Rtg: 108.7 (60th)
  • Def Rtg: 94.2 (70th)

Key Players to Watch

  • BAY - Jared Butler (16.8 PPG, 5.4 APG)
  • BAY - MaCio Teague (14.9 PPG, 4 RPG)
  • TEX - Andrew Jones (14.3 PPG, 4.7 RPG)
  • TEX - Matt Coleman (13.6 PPG, 4.1 APG)

Baylor-Texas Predictions

Baylor is the better team while Texas is playing through some emotional drama. That emotional drama could propel the Longhorns to a win, but Baylor seems too poised of a club to drop this game (especially if Smart is out).

The emotion does lie in Texas' corner, along with the regression that is expected for Baylor. Not that it will be long, but Baylor is unlikely to finish the season and March Madness Tournament undefeated. They're due at some point to lose, as this game does seem feasible to consider.

However, the smart play is to side with Baylor's 12-4 ATS record and the trend of Baylor winning eight of its last nine against Texas. Feel free to back the Bears, but if you want to take Baylor SU as a live bet if/when Texas takes a lead that is perfectly fine too.

Both teams have failed to score 60 points in the last two meetings, while the defenses are holding teams to an average below 70 points. Assuming 70-point territory is a maximum, the point total should go UNDER.

  • Score Prediction: Baylor 75 Texas 68
  • Best Bets: Baylor -6
  • Best Bets: UNDER

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