Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:47 AM

USC vs. Stanford Predictions, Odds

  • February 2, 2021
  • By Thom Cunningham

A huge Pac-12 game sees the Stanford Cardinal taking on the USC Trojans Tuesday night. Tip is set for 9 p.m. (ET) and will air on FS1 from the Maples Pavilion.



USC-Stanford Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: USC -3
  • Money-Line: USC -135 Stanford +115
  • Total: 138.5

Odds Subject to Change

USC is the road favorite for this game, entering with a -3-point spread. The Trojans have covered in nine of 16 games this season, while Stanford is 8-7-1 on the ATS.

The point total is set at 138.5, which both teams tend to go OVER on slightly. USC is 9-7 on the O/U this season, while Stanford is 9-6-2.

Betting Analysis – USC Trojans

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 13-3
  • ATS: 9-7
  • SU - Home: 9-2
  • SU - Away: 4-1
  • O/U: 9-7

USC is exceptional this season, although a bit inconsistent still. Evan Mobley averages a near double-double and is the heartbeat of this team. The freshman leads the team in points per game, rebounds per game and blocks per game with nearly three a game.

USC is long with Mobley and his brother Isaiah Mobley. They are the two tallest players for USC, leading the team in rebounds per game (Evan with 8.9 and Isaiah with 7.4) although Drew Peterson does add 5.4 himself.

The Trojans rank sixth in blocks per game (5.7), eighth in total rebounds per game (41.6), 60th in field goal percentage and 17th in free throws attempted per game (15.4). They dominate all the big men stats, because, they have good big men. The 14.3 assists per game that ranks 120th isn't terrible but there is a glaring weakness - the free throw line.

Yes, USC takes a ton of shots from the charity stripe each game. However, USC only hits 65.2% of their foul shots which ranks an atrocious 312th in the nation. Stanford has big men that can bang with the Mobley's, so if this becomes a free throw shoot out the Trojans are in trouble - regardless how great the big men stats are.

Betting Analysis – Stanford Cardinal

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 10-6
  • ATS: 8-7-1
  • SU - Home: 5-2
  • SU - Away: 5-4
  • O/U: 9-6-2

What makes Stanford a very tough backing are the injuries. Ziaire Williams and Deajon Davis are both listed as questionable, Williams averaging 12.5 points per game and 5.7 rebounds. Davis averages 13 points a game with 4.1 boards.

Stanford will need as many big bodies as they can get, and players crashing the glass. Williams and Davis rebounded well (despite Davis being 6'3"), but Oscar Da Silva is playing. Stanford has a chance in any game, let alone the paint, when Da Silva dresses up. He averages 19.5 points and 7.3 boards a game.

Stanford has four players average four or more rebounds per game that's not including Williams and Davis. They can bump with the USC bigs, as this game will be won down low and at the charity stripe. Stanford attempts the 21st-most free throws per game, but they hit 74.9% of them (58th-best nationally) and are playing at home.

The food for thought here is, do you like the USC talent or fear the USC free throws on the road? Well, Stanford at home wins the free throw battle based on numbers but the glaring weakness for the Cardinal is offensive rebounds. Although Stanford has a high volume of defensive rebounds, they average under 10 offensive boards per game which ranks 221st.

<p.Typically that would be fine if the offense was making shots at such a high pace that there were no offensive boards to grab, because the shots are falling. Stanford is not Belmont however, and with two top scorers being questionable this game could be decided by USC's defensive rebounding.

Any way you break down this game, it all circles back to two common denominators - rebounding and free throws.

Inside the Stats – USC Trojans

  • PS/G: 76.6 (78th)
  • PA/G: 64.5 (52nd)
  • Off Rtg: 109.9 (53rd)
  • Def Rtg: 92.6 (39th)

Inside the Stats – Stanford Cardinal

  • PS/G: 72.6 (154th)
  • PA/G: 68.9 (150th)
  • Off Rtg: 100.3 (205th)
  • Def Rtg: 95.2 (85th)

Key Players to Watch

  • USC - Evan Mobley (16.4 PPG, 8.9 RPG)
  • USC - Tahj Eddy (12.5 PPG)
  • STAN - Oscar Da Silva (19.5 PPG, 7.3 RPG)
  • STAN - Jaiden Delaire (12.6 PPG, 4.8 RPG)

USC-Stanford Predictions

USC getting three here is a bit hard to take, although the Trojans are a formidable take. Stanford can win this outright, so if you're brave enough I do support a ML bet on the plus-value Cardinal playing at home.

The injures are a concern, so be sure to check the status of both Davis and Williams before taking the ML for Stanford. The point total is a bit more difficult to decide on. Stanford has seen at least one team cross 70 points in nine straight games. Assuming it happens a 10th time in what should be a close battle, the point total should sneak OVER the set line.

  • Score Prediction: Stanford 71 USC 69
  • Best Bets: Stanford +3
  • Best Bets: OVER

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