Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:46 AM

Tennessee vs. Alabama Predictions, Odds, Preview

Mar. 13, 2021
Thom Cunningham
NCAA BK Expert

The SEC Tournament enters the semifinal stage on Saturday, as the Tennessee Volunteers take on the Alabama Crimson Tide. Tip for this SEC showdown is set for 1 p.m. (ET) and will air on ESPN.


Tennessee-Alabama Betting Odds

  • Spread: Alabama -3
  • Total: 136

Odds Subject to Change

Alabama enters as the favorite, given a -3-point spread as the higher seed. Alabama is 15-11-1 on the ATS this season, while Tennessee is split at 12-11-1.

The point total is set at 136, low for what Alabama is used to seeing. The Crimson Tide have gone UNDER in 14 of its last 27 games, while the Vols have gone UNDER in 14 of its last 24 games this season.

Betting Analysis – Tennessee Volunteers

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 17-7
  • ATS: 12-11-1
  • O/U: 10-14

Tennessee is coming off a solid win against Florida, now winning three of its last four games. Jaden Springer is the teams' leading scorer, while both and Keon Johnson average a double-digit point total.

The Vols average 4.5 blocks per game which ranks 33rd in the nation, while also seeing 7.2 steals per game which ranks 93rd in the nation. They are a great free throw team as well, hitting 74.5% of their shots which ransom 57th nationally. They hit 15.3 free throws per game (ranks 43rd in nation) and attempt 20.5 a game (ranks 69th in nation).

The main strength for this team is the defense though, allowing just 62.7 points per game. The Vols enter with a 91.6 defensive efficiency rating, which ranks 16th in the nation.

The Tennessee Volunteers lost to the Alabama Crimson Tide earlier this season, dropping the game at home 71-63 on Jan. 2. (AP)

Betting Analysis – Alabama Crimson Tide

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 21-6
  • ATS: 15-11-1
  • O/U: 13-14

Alabama handled Mississippi State easily in their first SEC Tournament game, as the Crimson Tide offense looks poised for a run. What else would you expect from Nate Oats and what he has brought from Buffalo? The Crimson Tide score buckets, and are not afraid to let it fly.

They score 79.6 points per game which ranks 30th in the nation, along with the nation's 24th-most efficient defense (92.9). Alabama features four players who score a double-digit point total, led by Jaden Schackelford. He and John Petty are the top two scorers, although Jahvon Quinerly isn't far behind with 12.3 points per game.

Alabama shoots the fourth-most three-pointers per game nationally (30.1) and connect on the fifth-most per game (10.7). They also rebound the ball very well, averaging 40.3 per game which ranks 11th nationally. Finally, their highly efficient defense stems from blocks and steals. They average 8.7 steals per game (ranks 17th) and 4.1 blocks per game (ranges 53rd).

Inside the Stats – Tennessee Volunteers

  • PS/G: 72.5 (146th)
  • PA/G: 62.7 (22nd)
  • Off Rtg: 105.8 (101st)
  • Def Rtg: 91.6 (16th)

Inside the Stats – Alabama Crimson Tide

  • PS/G: 79.6 (30th)
  • PA/G: 70.3 (185th)
  • Off Rtg: 105.2 (116th)
  • Def Rtg: 92.9 (24th)

Key Players to Watch

  • TENN - Jaden Springer (12.4 PPG)
  • TENN - Victor Bailey (12.4 PPG)
  • BAMA - Jaden Shackelford (14.4 PPG, 4 RPG)
  • BAMA - John Petty (12.8 PPG, 5.1 RPG)

Tennessee-Alabama Predictions

Its difficult to go against Alabama's offense right now, scoring at a highly efficient rate (which is no surprise). The low point total should be taken advantage of, despite the schools going slightly UNDER more times than not. Alabama touching 75 should see the total clear, unless Tennessee's offense disappears - which tends to occur.

If Tennessee can't keep pace then Alabama should easily cover the given spread, so feel free to pair the two bets. Go OVER and count on Alabama's offense to produce. Taking Alabama to cover also wagers on the Crimson Tide offense without having to rely on Tennessee to score points as well.

  • Score Prediction: Alabama 72 Tennessee 66
  • Best Bets: OVER
  • Best Bets: Alabama -3


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