2023 Final Four Picks, Predictions, Odds

The 2023 Final Four is scheduled to begin on Saturday April 1 and conclude with the NCAA College Basketball National Championship Game on Monday April 3 from NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas.

2023 NCAA Tournament Picks
Odds | Matchups | Futures
Sweet 16 | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Championship 

2023 NCAA Tournament Final Four Picks

March Madness Expert Picks
Free | Premium
Parlays | Consensus

VegasInsider College Basketball Expert Bruce Marshall is back with his Final Four Picks, Predictions and Betting Analysis as the NCAA Tournament arrives in Houston, Texas for the semifinal matchups and championship game.

No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 9 Florida Atlantic

The San Diego State Aztecs are listed as short favorites over FAU in the semis. (Getty)

At this stage the technical handicaps often cancel out one another, especially with a spread as tight as FAU-SDSU.  They’re both winning and the spread is near even, so... pick the winner!!!

Fundamentals fascinate here more than perhaps any matchup in the Dance to date, especially how the Owls might be able to attack the gnarly Aztec defenders.  Much of the pundit class in print and on TV tends to dismiss three-point defense as something random, hence some of the comments on the TV side during San Diego State's Sweet 16 upset of Alabama, noting the Tide shooters were “missing open three-pointers” while continue to misfire, as if trying to justify three-point D as mere chance.  Except it’s not, certainly in the case of the Aztecs, who like any good defensive team will start to play off shooters when they’re consistently off-target, daring them to shoot. 

'Bama, however, like  every team SDSU has faced since the Mountain West finale vs. Utah State, and like Creighton in Sunday’s regional final, had become completely unnerved by the Aztecs’ physicality and athleticism on the perimeter, and began to squeeze the trigger much too quickly at the first opening to shoot a triple. 

It’s time to acknowledge what’s going on; across the past five games, against some of the better-shooting teams in the country (Utags, Charleston, Furman, Bama, and Creighton) SDSU has limited foes to 22 of 118 from beyond the arc...barely 18% (!), even better than the season-long 27.9%, which ranks third nationally. 

FAU, however, attacks differently, using constant ball screens and high pick-and-rolls involving rugged 7-1 Vladislav Goldin to force constant defensive switches that eventually pull defenders away from their normal assignments, and opposing bigs further away from the hoop...hence the stunning number of offensive rebounds (58) thus far in the Dance.  As everyone aside from Goldin can also shoot the 3, and with leading scorer Johnell Davis getting plenty of help from his friends,  FAU can spread the floor and defenses out of their normal configuration. 

To combat this best, foes can either use a zone, which most don’t prefer (and most don’t do well enough either), or you fight over the top and above the screens...which no team in the nation does better than the Aztecs.  Meanwhile, thanks to transfers Darrian Trammell (via Seattle) and Mich Parrish (via Oakland), Brian Dutcher can usually find a hot hand or two among his backcourt weapons including star and former Cal transfer Matt Bradley (lone double-digit scorer on season at 13 ppg), Lamont Butler or Adam Seiko; it happened to be Butler and Trammell (combined 30 points) on Sunday vs. Creighton. 

But while a bit more reliable from the perimeter than in recent years, the Aztecs can go cold, too (only 3 for 13 from deep vs. the Bluejays), and the deep shooting background of NRG Stadium could wreak havoc with depth perception.  Initial thought here is that this will be no shootout, with extended possessions working down the shot clock, and clearing the low 130s “total” might be a chore.

Winner: San Diego State Aztecs

No. 4 UConn vs. No. 5 Miami, Fl.

Miami opened as a healthy underdog for its Final Four matchup versus UConn. (Getty)

Bearing a resemblance to the Villanova juggernaut of 2018, UConn is roaring thru the Dance while hardly taking a deep breath; no one has come closer than 15 points into the Final Four.  The Huskies have had an uncanny knack of rattling the opposition and quickly going for the kill, as we saw in the first half of the Sweet 16 vs. Arkansas and the second half vs. a cowering Gonzaga in the Elite 8. 

Which has also continued quite a trend for Dan Hurley’s bunch, which hasn’t lost a game outside of the Big East and suffered only one spread loss, barely so in a 20-point win over Buffalo as a 20.5-point favorite in November.  With a “four out” offense spreading the floor with shooters around 6-9 destroyer Adama Sanogo in the post (or, when Sanogo needs a blow, 7-2 frosh Donovan Clingan) the Huskies operated like a finely-tuned Swiss watch in the West Regionals at Las Vegas, scoring 85 ppg in the two blowouts last weekend. 

We dare say, however, that Miami has impressed more in the Dance, simply because the Hurricanes have been seriously challenged (which UConn hasn’t) and has responded in the clutch, outscoring dangerous Drake 16-1 down the stretch  to pull an opening-round win out of the fire, then roaring back from 14 down in the second half to collar Texas and beat the Longhorns on Sunday. 

Jim Larranaga’s nous was on full display in Kansas City, instructing his guards to take their Texas counterparts to the basket where the absence of 6-9 Dylan Disu as a burly rim protector could be exploited; the result was near 60% FG shooting in a stinging rebuke to the analytics crowd that would cringe at Miami attempting only eight triples (and making only two). 

Time and time again Isaiah Wong and Jordan Miller attacked the paint; eventually the Horns wilted, helped by more timely buckets from K-State transfer G Nijel Pack and some deft free-throw shooting (28 of 32).  Yes, the Huskies have looked overwhelming, but they're hardly unbeatable; they lost eight times this season.  Note that all four games involving these teams last week landed well on the “over” side so not sure the early “totals” in the upper 140s is high enough, either.

Winner: Miami, Fl. Hurricanes

NCAA Final Four Betting Trends

Championship Picks & Analysis

NCAA Final Four Picks & Predictions

Jonathan Willis will return with his Score Predictions, Best Bets and Betting Analysis for the Final Four:

Saturday, Apr. 1

NCAA Tournament Final Four Best Bets

NCAA Tournament Final Four Odds

The NCAA Men's Tournament Final Four is set with four schools from four different conferences and get this, no No. 1, No. 2 or No. 3 seeds will be represented.

The winners and seeds of each region are listed below:

East: No. 9 Florida Atlantic
South: No. 5 San Diego State
West: No. 4 UConn
Midwest: No. 5 Miami, Fl.

The East and South winners will meet on Saturday in the first semifinal at 6;09 p.m. ET while the West and Midwest tangle in the nightcap at 8:49 p.m. ET.

Listed below are the Spread, Total (Over-Under) and Money Line odds for the NCAA Tournament Final Four semifinal matchups.

No. 9 FAU vs. No. 5 San Diego State Odds

CBS, 6:09 p.m. ET

Opening Odds

Spread: S.D. State -1.5 FAU +1.5
Total: Over 131.5 Under 131.5
Money Line: S.D. State -130 FAU +108

No. 5 Miami, Fl. vs. No. 4 UConn Odds

CBS, 8:49 p.m. ET

Opening Odds

Spread: UConn -5.5 Miami +5.5
Total: Over 149.5 Under 149.5
Money Line: UConn -215 Miami +176

NCAA Tournament Final Four Futures

The NCAA Men's Tournament has been cut from 68 teams to 4 and the oddsmakers have updated the odds on the remaining four schools.

San Diego State+360
Miami, Fl.+490
Florida Atlantic+600

Odds per FanDuel - Subject to Change


NCAA Tournament Region Odds


Instead of picking who will be the NCAA Men's Tournament winner, bettors now have the ability to predict which four schools will reach the Final Four in Houston, Texas.

2023 Final Four Teams

  • Houston +140
  • Alabama +190
  • Purdue +250
  • UCLA +300
  • Kansas +350
  • Texas +400
  • Arizona +400
  • Gonzaga +400
  • Marquette +450
  • Tennessee +500
  • Connecticut +500
  • Baylor +550
  • Duke +800
  • Creighton +800
  • San Diego State +875
  • Kansas State +900
  • Xavier +1000
  • TCU +1000
  • Saint Mary's +1000
  • Texas A&M +1200
  • Kentucky +1200
  • Virginia +1200
  • Indiana +1400
  • Michigan State +1400
  • Iowa State +1600
  • West Virginia +1800
  • Miami, Fl. +2000
  • Arkansas +2000
  • Memphis +2000
  • Maryland +2200
  • Illinois +2500
  • Auburn +2500
  • Iowa +3000
  • USC +3000
  • Utah State +3000
  • Penn State +3000
  • Providence +3500
  • Florida Atlantic +3500
  • Northwestern +4000
  • Missouri +5000
  • North Carolina State +5000
  • Boise State +5000
  • Mississippi State +6600
  • Drake +6600
  • VCU +8000
  • Pittsburgh +8000
  • Charleston +8000
  • Montana State +10000
  • Northern Kentucky +10000
  • UC Santa Barbara +10000
  • Louisiana-Lafayette +10000
  • UNC Asheville +10000
  • Kent State +10000
  • Colgate +10000
  • Furman +10000
  • Arizona State +10000
  • Southeast Missouri State +10000
  • Nevada +10000
  • Kennesaw State +10000
  • Vermont +10000
  • Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +10000
  • Oral Roberts +10000
  • Texas Southern +10000
  • Iona +10000
  • Grand Canyon +10000

Odds Subject to Change


There are few things as exciting as placing a bet on the finalists for the NCAA tournament. Final Four betting is all about making the right choices and putting money on the team with the best chances. This is an event that attracts millions of bettors with determination and drive.

During March madness betting season, everybody eyes up the Elite 8 and awaits the Final Four bracket. This is where the best of the best compete. It’s the cream of the crop. That’s one of the reasons why it’s so intense and moves so many people.

The Final Four tournament is the last set of games in the NCAA tournament. They involve the four teams remaining in their respective brackets. These compete in two games of a single-elimination tournament’s final round. The two teams that win face-off to decide first and second place. The remaining teams duke it out to place third.


When money’s on the line, it’s important to make informed decisions. So, you need to look in every nook and cranny for little details that might give you an edge when selecting a team in the Final Four bracket. You can check previous Final Four scores, read into the NCAA bracket, and perhaps participate in Elite 8 betting as practice.

Both the players and the coaches matter. Deep dive into their backgrounds and performance over time. You can also find more information on Final Four betting through social means. You might ask friends, online forums, or explore different websites. Most importantly, though, you need to gather and analyze the information you find.

Sadly, Final Four betting isn’t a black and white business. There are many gray areas. Consider the team composition, injured players, MVPs, strengths and weaknesses, and other key factors. Also, note when to place your bets.

The further from the Final Four games you place your bet (known as March Madness betting), the more money you can make. However, betting closer to the event means you’ll have more information for your decisions. After all, the odds for each team can change drastically as the games approach. It’s a balancing act between how much money you’d like to win and how high you want your chances to be.


Selection Sunday for the NCAA tournament will take place on March 12, 2023. The Final Four begins on April 1 and concludes on April 3 at NRG Stadium from Houston, Texas.

  • Semifinal 1: TBD vs. TBD
  • Semifinal 2: TBD vs. TBD


68 teams play their hearts out to make it to the Final Four bracket. As it stands, the finalists have yet to be determined. However, you can expect some fierce competition from the usual standouts. It’s important to find the outliers and exceptional teams early on. They’re usually the teams that make it to the final games.

Final Four betting revolves around these last matches. Once all other teams have lost, they’re the remaining competitors. 


As with most popular sports, the NCAA tournament creates some serious buzz. There’s a huge fanbase that participates a bit more than the rest, and they do so in the form of legal bets and online wagers. Generally, these bettors find advice online for each NCAA bracket. 

However, others gather to debate the best Final Four betting tactics and strategies before they start their March Madness betting.

March Madness betting can feel like a bit of a mess. However, with some reading and information seeking, you’re more likely to place sensible bets. When 68 teams face-off for the big win in under one month’s time, the excitement might take you by surprise. Stay focused, and think straight.


First off, you're going to want to make sure you're in a state that has legal, online betting. These include LouisianaNew YorkNew JerseyArizona, and a ton more. Check our guide on state-to-state betting to see if wagering is available in your area.

Using an online sportsbook such as FanDuel or DraftKings to place bets is the best choice for players across the country. It’s easy to do and accessible to users in a ton of eligible states-- just make sure online sportsbooks are legal where you want to bet. Also, remember to check the different types of wagers you can place. 

There are tons of strategies you can pick, and your success rate will depend on your knowledge of the players, coaches, and past successes each team has. Experts also suggest practicing with Elite 8 betting.

Overall, the Final Four tournament is a chance to have some fun and make some money on the side. Win or lose; you’re sure to enjoy yourself with friends, family, and great food.

If you are interested in more Final Four tournament odds, please check out our Betmgm Bonus Code offer.