FSU Seminoles vs. Purdue Boilermakers Picks, Predictions, Odds

Nov. 30, 2021
Dan Dobish
VI Betting Expert

The Florida State Seminoles (5-1) travel to meet the No. 2 Purdue Boilermakers (6-0) at Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, Ind. for the Big Ten/ACC Challenge on Tuesday night. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m., and the game can be viewed on ESPN.

Score Prediction

Purdue 83, Florida State 68

Best Bets

Purdue -11.5 (-110)

Over 143.5 (-105)

FSU Seminoles vs. Purdue Boilermakers Predictions

The Seminoles opened the season with a victory over Penn, and FSU carried a ranking into the rivalry game against Florida on Nov. 14. The 'Noles hit Gainesville as one-point favorites, but left with a 16-point beatdown from the rival Gators. Florida State bounced back with a narrow win over Tulane before kicking it into high gear with a pair of victories against Loyola Marymount and Missouri on a neutral floor. The Seminoles won both games by at least 23 points for a pair of easy covers. But they had their hands full the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, narrowly escaping against a bad Boston University squad in overtime, 81-80. So we have seen a little bit of a Jekyll and Hyde act from Leonard Hamilton's bunch this season.

Florida State is expected to have a rather short bench Tuesday, as G Rayquan Evans (undisclosed), Naheem McLeod (ankle) and Tanor Ngom (knee) are expected to sit due to injuries.

Not only is Purdue unbeaten through six games, they have posted marquee wins against North Carolina and Villanova, and the Boilermakers have covered each of the past four outings. Against top-flight opponents, or cupcakes, Purdue has mowed down all comers so far. The latest win was a 97-40 curb-stomping of Nebraska-Omaha on the Friday after Thanksgiving, as they certainly weren't slowed by turkey, mashed potatoes and cranberry sauce.

FSU Seminoles vs. Purdue Boilermakers Betting Odds

  • Florida State +450
  • Purdue -650
  • Florida State +11.5 (-110)
  • Purdue -11.5 (-110)
  • Over 143.5 (-105)
  • Under 143.5 (-115)
  • More Odds | Futures Odds

    FSU Seminoles vs. Purdue Boilermakers Betting Resources

    • Matchup: ACC vs. Big 10
    • Date: Tuesday, November 30, 2021
    • Venue: Mackey Arena
    • Location: West Lafayette, Indiana
    • TV-Time: ESPN - 7:30 p.m. ET

    FSU Seminoles Betting Analysis

    Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

    • SU: 5-1
    • ATS: 3-3
    • O/U: 3-3

    The Seminoles will play their second true road game of the season. As mentioned, the first one didn't go terribly well, falling at Florida by a 71-55 score. And that was with a full cadre of players. They enter this game with a few guys left behind in Tallahassee, and that's not good in an all-hands-on-deck kind of a game in West Lafayette. The Big Ten won the first two games on the Big Ten/ACC Challenge, and the Seminoles aren't likely to carry the flag for the conference.

    The last time these teams met came back on Nov. 30, 2019, exactly two years to the day. Florida State won 63-60 in overtime on this very same floor as a one-point favorite. The teams also met Nov. 28, 2018 in Tallahassee, with Purdue grabbing the cover in a 73-72 loss. The UNDER has connected in each of the past two meetings.

    Purdue Boilermakers Betting Analysis

    Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

    • SU: 6-0
    • ATS: 5-1
    • O/U: 4-2

    The Boilermakers have not only won all six of their games, but they have covered four straight, including quality wins against North Carolina and Purdue. They're 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS on their home floor, including a 97-40 win over Nebraska-Omaha as 36.5-point favorites. As a double-digit favorite this season, Purdue is 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS in four such games this season. The OVER/UNDER is 2-2 in those games, and 4-2 to the OVER in six games overall.

    Purdue has four guys averaging 13.0 or more points this season. The Boilermakers have generally been playing nine deep this season, and they saw F Mason Gillis return from suspension against Omaha last time out to give them even more depth.

    The Boilermakers are 4-0 ATS in the past four games as a favorite, while going 4-1 ATS in the past five home games. The OVER is 24-9 in the past 33 games as a favorite, and 23-8 in the past 31 at home. The OVER is also 21-6 in the past 27 games as a home favorite, too.

    Purdue has hit the OVER in 21 of the past 27 as a home favorite. (AP)

    Inside the Stats - FSU Seminoles

    • Record: 5-1
    • VI Ranking: 29
    • PS/G: 75.7
    • PA/G: 63.0
    • ORtg: 33.8
    • DRtg: 30.0

    Inside the Stats - Purdue Boilermakers

    • Record: 6-0
    • VI Ranking: 2
    • PS/G: 92.3
    • PA/G: 64.0
    • ORtg: 40.7
    • DRtg: 23.3

    Key Players to Watch

    • FSU: Malik Osborne - F (12.5 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 64.3 3P%)
    • FSU: Anthony Polite - G (9.3 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 2.7 APG, 1.7 SPG)
    • PUR: Zach Edey - C (17.7 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 1.5 BPG, 1.2 APG)
    • PUR: Jaden Ivey - G (15.0 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 4.2 APG, 1.5 SPG)

    FSU Seminoles vs. Purdue Boilermakers Betting Conclusion

    The Seminoles are shorthanded for this Big Ten/ACC battle, and they are going to have a difficult time trying to shoot down one of the best teams in the country. FSU might be able to hang with Purdue for a while, as defense hasn't been a hallmark of Boilermakers basketball to date. They're allowing 64.0 PPG, ranking a mediocre 97th, and the opposition is dropping in 3-pointers at 29.8%.

    FSU isn't terribly tidy on the defensive end, either, and that's not good against a top-notch offense like Purdue. The Boilermakers have posted 92.3 PPG to rank second in the nation in scoring, while hitting 53.7% to rank third in the country in field-goal percentage. They're also fifth in 3-pointer percentage, hitting 43.5% from behind the arc. Look for Purdue to score plenty on the Seminoles, protecting their home court while keeping the Big Ten in good shape in this challenge.

    FSU Seminoles vs. Purdue Boilermakers Betting Trends

    • The Seminoles are 0-4 ATS in the past four road games.
    • The Boilermakers are 4-0 ATS in the past four games overall.
    • The Boilermakers are 4-1 ATS in the past five home games.
    • The UNDER is 3-1-1 in past five road games for FSU vs. team with a winning home mark.
    • The OVER is 6-2 in the past eight games overall for Purdue.
    • The OVER is 23-8 in the past 31 home games for Purdue.