Last Updated Jan 04, 2022, 2:36 PM

Kentucky Wildcats vs. LSU Tigers Picks, Predictions, Odds

Jan. 4, 2022
Dan Dobish
VI Betting Expert

The Kentucky Wildcats (11-2, 1-0 SEC) travel to meet the LSU Tigers (12-1, 0-1) at the Pete Maravich Assembly Center in Baton Rouge on Tuesday night. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on ESPN.

Score Prediction

Kentucky 76, LSU 68

Best Bets

Kentucky +100 ML at BetMGM

Kentucky +1.5 (-115) at BetMGM

Over 139.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Kentucky Wildcats vs. LSU Tigers Predictions

The Wildcats hit the road looking for a fifth consecutive victory and cover. It won't be easy in a battle of ranked teams, especially in their place. Kentucky registered a 92-48 win against High Point last time out as a 27.5-point favorites as the OVER hit, and it has scored 83 or more points in each of the previous four outings, including three times with 92 or more points. That includes a win in the SEC opener against Missouri at home on Dec. 29, an 83-56 victory as 20-point favorites as the UNDER cashed.

LSU was 12 up and 12 down through the holidays, but a trip to fellow ranked team Auburn in the SEC opener didn't necessarily go as planned. LSU stumbled out of the chute, falling down 18-1 early on, and it never recovered, as Auburn routed them 70-55 as 4.5-point favorites as the UNDER hit. The 55 points by LSU easily marked a season low, with the previous low as 66 against Louisiana Tech on a neutral site Dec. 18, and against Ohio in Baton Rouge on Dec. 1.

Kentucky has won five of the past six meetings in this series, while covering three of the past four. I didn't like LSU's energy from the jump at Auburn, but it should be a little better at home. It won't matter, however, as Kentucky is more battle tested, and won't be intimidated at the PMAC.

Kentucky Wildcats vs. LSU Tigers Betting Odds

  • Kentucky +100
  • LSU -120
  • Kentucky +1.5 (-115)
  • LSU -1.5 (-105)
  • Over 139.5 (-110)
  • Under 139.5 (-110)

More Odds | Futures Odds

Kentucky Wildcats vs. LSU Tigers Betting Resources

  • Matchup: SEC
  • Date: Tuesday, January 4, 2022
  • Venue: Pete Maravich Assembly Center
  • Location: Baton Rouge, Louisiana
  • TV-Time: ESPN - 7:00 p.m. ET

Kentucky Wildcats Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 11-2
  • ATS: 7-6
  • O/U: 6-7

Big Blue rolls into this one with a 4-0 SU/ATS streak in tow, averaging 92.0 PPG during the impressive span. And yes, it dropped 92 on High Point last time out, but Missouri, Western Kentucky and North Carolina were the other opponents, so the big offense didn't come against slouches. The UNC game was particularly impressive, as the Wildcats dropped 98 on the Tar Heels in Vegas on a neutral floor, quickly shifting from planning for Ohio State to UNC due to COVID issues for the Buckeyes.

The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in the past four games overall, but they're just 1-7-1 ATS in the past nine road games while going 1-5 ATS in the past six on the road against teams with a winning home record. And, for what it's worth, Kentucky is just 0-8 ATS in the previous eight appearances on a Tuesday.

For totals, the OVER is 8-3 in the past 11 games against teams with a winning overall record, while the UNDER is 5-1-1 in the past seven on the road against teams with a winning home record.

LSU Tigers Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 12-1
  • ATS: 10-3
  • O/U: 2-11

LSU fell 82-69 in Lexington in last season's lone meeting on Jan. 23, 2021. This is the first home game for the Tigers against the Wildcats since Feb. 18, 2020, before the COVID shutdown. Kentucky eked out a 79-76 win in Baton Rouge that day, and it has won five of the past six games overall while going 4-2 ATS.

The Tigers have held serve as home well against most everybody else lately, going 12-3-1 ATS across the past 16 games at home, while going 5-1-1 ATS in the past seven games at home against teams with a losing road record. And yes, Kentucky does qualify in that category, losing its only true road game at Notre Dame by a 66-62 score on Dec. 11 as 4.5-point underdogs. That was against a mediocre Irish team, so this will be a much bigger test. LSU is also 11-4 ATS in the past 15 games against teams with a winning overall record.

For totals, it's all UNDER all the time for LSU, going 10-1 in the past 11 games overall. The UNDER is 6-1 in the past seven home games, too, while going a perfect 8-0 in the past eight against teams with a winning percentage over .600.

Inside the Stats - Kentucky Wildcats

  • Record: 11-2
  • VI Ranking: 14
  • PS/G: 83.9 (11th)
  • PA/G: 60.5 (33rd)
  • ORtg: 118.2 (5th)
  • DRtg: 85.2 (16th)

Inside the Stats - LSU Tigers

  • Record: 12-1
  • VI Ranking: 15
  • PS/G: 77.7 (65th)
  • PA/G: 55.3 (4th)
  • ORtg: 106.4 (111th)
  • DRtg: 75.8 (1st)

Key Players to Watch

  • UK: Oscar Tshiebwe - F (15.8 PPG, 15.2 RPG, 1.5 BPG, 1.3 SPG)
  • UK: Tyty Washington Jr. - G (14.0 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 3.9 APG, 1.1 SPG)
  • LSU: Darius Days - F (14.7 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 1.5 SPG, 36.4 3P%)
  • LSU: Tari Eason - F (15.8 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 1.7 SPG, 1.4 BPG)

Kentucky Wildcats vs. LSU Tigers Betting Conclusion

I've been to the Pete Maravich Assembly Center, but it's been a number of years. Dale Brown was the coach in Baton Rouge, and the big men on campus were Deuce Ford, Ronnie Henderson and Randy Livingston. I may or may not have had a few adult beverages at The Chimes Bar, and you used to be able to go 'Around the World', checking off beers and getting your name on the wall if you accomplished a certain number. Me and my buddy Matt didn't quite get there, but we got after it. Thankfully, we chose not to drink beforehand to remember the PMAC. It's your garden variety dome arena. But when the Tigers are going well, it's the place to be. And things are certainly going well right now.

However, looking at LSU's previous opponents top to bottom, it isn't terribly impressive. Wins at home have been against ULM, Texas State, Liberty, McNeese and Belmont at home, before neutral-site wins over Penn State and Wake. Perhaps the most impressive win was at Georgia Tech on Dec. 11, and that's not really that impressive. They also topped Northwestern State and Lipscomb at home, but you can see they haven't exactly been tested at home. And the only ranked opponent the Tigers have faced, Auburn on the road last time out, ended in huge, miserable failure in a rout.

This is a measuring stick game for LSU, and we're going to find out a lot about the Tigers. Is this a team with a pumped up record, but not quite on par with the big dogs? Or can the Tigers handle its business against one of the top teams in the conference? I am thinking it's the latter, and Kentucky runs past them.

Kentucky Wildcats vs. LSU Tigers Betting Trends

  • Kentucky is 4-0 ATS in the past four games overall.
  • Kentucky is 1-7-1 ATS in the past nine road games.
  • Kentucky is 0-8 ATS in the past eight games on Tuesday.
  • Kentucky is 5-11 ATS in the past 16 against winning teams.
  • LSU is 12-3-1 ATS in the past 16 games at home.
  • LSU is 18-7-1 ATS in the past 26 games overall.
  • LSU is 11-4 ATS in the past 15 against winning teams.
  • The OVER is 8-3 in the past 11 for Kentucky vs. winning teams.
  • The UNDER is 10-1 in the past 11 games overall for LSU.
  • The road team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings.
  • The underdog is 9-4 ATS in the past 13 meetings.

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