Last Updated Feb 25, 2022, 7:59 PM

Texas State Bobcats vs. Troy Trojans Predictions, Picks, Odds

In the backend of Friday night’s doubleheader of college basketball betting action on ESPN2, the Texas State Bobcats head on the road to tangle with the Troy Trojans in this Sun Belt clash. Tip-off from Trojan Arena is set for 9 p.m. (ET)

Score Prediction

Texas State 72, Troy 63

Best Bets

Texas State -2 (-110)

Texas State Bobcats vs. Troy Trojans Predictions

Texas State started play in the Sun Belt this season with a lopsided 18-point loss to Troy on Dec. 30 as a six-point home favorite. The Bobcats will look to avenge that loss riding a straight-up eight-game winning streak. They knocked off South Alabama by five points on Wednesday night closing as three-point road underdogs so playing this game on the road could actually be a plus.

The Trojans improved to 10-5 SU in conference play with Wednesday’s seven-point victory at home against Texas-Arlington laying 4.5-points on the closing spread. They had lost two of their previous three games, including a stunning six-point setback against Arkansas-Little Rock at home on Feb. 17 as 13-point favorites.

Along with the fact that Texas State is one of the hottest teams in the Sun Belt closing out its regular season on Friday night, the team’s motivation for winning this last game is about as high as it gets. At 11-3 SU, the regular season title is on the line. Add in that first loss to Troy and I see the Bobcats rolling to another big road win in this game.

Texas State Bobcats vs. Troy Trojans Betting Odds

  • Texas State -2 (-110)
  • Troy -2 (-110)
  • Over 128.5 (-110)
  • Under 128.5 (-110)

More Odds | Futures Odds

Texas State Bobcats vs. Troy Trojans Betting Resources

  • Matchup: Sun Belt
  • Date: Friday, February 25, 2022
  • Venue: Trojan Arena
  • Location: Troy, Alabama
  • TV-Time: ESPN2 - 9:00 p.m. ET

Texas State Bobcats Betting Analysis

  • SU: 20-6
  • ATS: 12-11
  • O/U: 12-10-1

Along with eight-straight wins, Texas State has been able to cover against the spread in its last six games. It is 3-0 SU and ATS in its last three games on the road. The total stayed UNDER 130.5 points in Wednesday’s 55-52 win against South Alabama and it has now stayed UNDER in three of the Bobcats’ last four games.

Forward Nighael Ceaser posted a double-double to lead the way in that last game with 11 points and 12 rebounds. Guard Caleb Asberry added nine points to the winning cause. He has been the team’s leading scorer this season with an average of 13.2 points per game. Asberry is shooting 42.1% from the field and 36.6% from three point range.

Guard Mason Harrell and forward Isiah Small are each averaging just over 11 PPG. Small leads the team in rebounds (6.9) and Harrell is adding five assists a game while connecting on 40.6 % of his shots from outside the three-point line.

The Bobcats have been able to average 70.8 PPG this season while shooting 46.8% from the field and 37.5% from three point range. They are pulling down an average of 33.8 rebound and holding opposing teams to 62.6 points a game on defense.

Troy Trojans Betting Analysis

  • SU: 19-9
  • ATS: 15-10
  • O/U: 11-14

Even with Wednesday’s cover against Texas-Arlington, the Trojans are just 2-3 ATS over their last five outings. They are 9-6 ATS this season through 15 conference games, but they have failed to cover in two of their last three games at home. The total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in five of their last seven games overall.

Forward Zay Williams had the hot hand in Wednesday’s win with 15 points. He is fourth on the team in scoring (8.4 points) while leading the way in rebounds with seven a game. Forward Efe Odigie is at the top of the list in scoring with 11.3 points and second in rebounds with 6.4 a game.

Guard Duke Deen (9.3 points) is the team’s best foul shooter at 81.5% and he leads the way in assists (3.1). Guard Duke Miles continues to miss playing time as the team’s third-highest scorer (8.9 points). 

Troy is averaging 69.9 points and 37.7 rebounds a game. The team has shot 42.8% from the field and 32.9% from three-point range. Deen is converting on 35.1% of his team-high 148 attempts from three point range. The Trojans are giving up an average of 65.1 points a game on defense.

Texas State is 1-4 ATS in its last five matchups against Troy.

Inside the Stats - Texas State Bobcats

  • Record: 20-6
  • PS/G: 70.8 (187th)
  • PA/G: 62.6 (27th)
  • ORtg: 107 (88th)
  • DRtg: 94.5 (55th)

Inside the Stats - Troy Trojans

  • Record: 19-9
  • PS/G: 69.9 (215th)
  • PA/G: 65.1 (61st)
  • ORtg: 99.2 (253rd)
  • DRtg: 92.4 (31st)

Key Players to Watch

  • TXST: Caleb Asberry - G (13.2 PPG, 4.5 REB, 2 AST)
  • TXST: Isiah Small - F (11.2 PPG, 6.9 REB, 1.7 AST)
  • TROY: Efe Odigie - F (11.3 PPG, 6.4 REB, 1.2 AST)
  • TROY: Duke Deen - G (9.3 PPG, 2.3 REB, 3.1 AST)

Texas State Bobcats vs. Troy Trojans Betting Conclusion

Texas State has the slight 6-4 SU edge over the last 10 meetings in this series with Troy holding an even smaller advantage ATS at 5-4-1. The total has gone OVER in the last two games between the two after staying UNDER in the previous four meetings.

Despite these teams playing each other close in recent years, I give Texas State the big edge on the road this Friday night. This is mainly based on current form but revenge for a bad loss is always an important factor.

Texas State Bobcats vs. Troy Trojans Betting Trends

  • Texas State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games.
  • Troy is 7-1 SU in its last eight home games.
  • Texas State is 1-4 ATS in its last five matchups against Troy.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the last six matchups between Troy and Texas State.
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