2023 NCAA Tournament Bracketology Predictions

Bruce Marshall Sports Betting Expert

4 minute read

Bracketology Predictions

2023 NCAA Tournament Futures Odds

Acknowledging there are no best answers to such a subjective exercise, we have always proceeded a bit differently with our Bracketology forecasts, mixing the current metrics with some of our projections to what might be coming before we hit Selection Sunday. 

Thus, we don’t always pencil in a team to the field of 68 simply because it might be leading its conference, especially this early, in mid-January.  We grant ourselves a bit of flexibility with such projections...after all, projections are our business!  

Of course, the less-exact these Bracketology projections with Selection Sunday so far over the horizon, but our track record has been pretty accurate in the past.  So, as always, we’re blending what has been happening with what we expect to happen into early March to come up with how we think the field would, or should, seed on Selection Sunday, which takes place on March 12, 2023.

Come next week, we’re sure to have some different ideas.  

As we get close to the weekend, a quick look at our seed lines.

Bracketology Seed Predictions

Projections as of January,18, 2023

1. Houston, Purdue, Alabama, Kansas
2. UCLA, Gonzaga, Tennessee, Xavier
3. Iowa State, Texas, Arizona, Virginia
4. Kansas State, Marquette, TCU, Miami-Fla
5. Rutgers, Illinois, Baylor, Auburn
6. UConn, Providence, North Carolina State, Saint Mary’s 
7. Clemson, Arizona State, North Carolina, Creighton
8. Duke, Arkansas, Iowa, Michigan State
9. Pittsburgh, Charleston, Florida Atlantic, Missouri
10. Wisconsin, Boise State, New Mexico, USC
11. San Diego State, Texas A&M, Virginia Commonwealth, Wake Forest
12. Oral Roberts, Kent State, Oklahoma*, Nevada*, Indiana*, Kentucky*
13. Southern Illinois, Princeton, UL-Lafayette, Liberty
14. UC Santa Barbara, SIU-Edwardsville, Youngstown State, Seattle
15. Eastern Washington, Siena, Colgate, Samford
16. UNC-Asheville, UMass-Lowell, Norfolk State*, Southern U*, Fairleigh Dickinson*, SE Louisiana*

• * Play-in game participants at First Four in Dayton

Updated on 04/16/2024

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Last Four In...

Oklahoma, Nevada, Indiana, Kentucky

First Four Out...

Ohio State, West Virginia, Memphis, Penn State

Next Four Out...

Utah State, UNC-Wilmington, Cincinnati, Dayton

Bracketology Conference Big Predicitions

• ACC- 8
• SEC-7
• Big Ten-7
• Big 12- 7
• Big East-5
• Mountain West-4
• Pac 12- 4
• West Coast-2

Bracketology Teams to Watch

Creighton

Conference: Big East
Record: 11-8 SU, 9-10 ATS
Futures Odds: +7500

At the moment we are hardly sure the Bluejays would be seeded as high as the seven-line where we have placed them at the moment.  With eight losses already, Greg McDermott's field might not even be included in some other bracket projections.  But the Selection Committee in the past has granted some leeway to teams which lost games when star players were absent (as long as the losses don’t pile too high and the injured player returns to action). 

Creighton thus looks the next test-case here, minus key center Ryan Kalkbrenner for several of those losses in December.  Keep in mind that at full strength, the Bluejays made the finals at Maui during Thanksgiving week and were nipped at the wire by two points vs. high-powered Arizona in the title game.  And, since Kalkbrenner has returned, Creighton is definitely back on the ascent.  We suspect that by the time we get into mid-February, any Bluejays inclusion questions will be moot.

UConn

Conference: Big East
Record: 15-5 SU, 12-8 ATS
Futures Odds: +2400

Sticking in the Big East, we would watch the Huskies carefully.  With losses in five of their last six, including a galling defeat at midweek vs. Seton Hall in which the Huskies coughed up a 14-point halftime lead, UConn is most definitely in the midst of a nosedive.  Head coach Dan Hurley also missed the game at Newark vs. the Hall due to Covid protocols (though should return soon).  Upcoming games vs. the bottom shelf of the Big East (Butler, DePaul, and Georgetown) should break the fall...at least we think.  While no need to panic at the moment about playing their way out of the field, the Huskies are nonetheless on a very slippery slope, their early 14-0 mark, No. 2 ranking in the polls, and win at the Phil Knight Legacy at Portland in late November all looking a very long way back in the rear-view mirror tight now.

Kentucky

Conference: SEC
Record: 12-6 SU, 6-12 ATS
Futures Odds: +5000

At this time last week we wouldn’t have had the Wildcats in the field.  But wins over high-ranked Tennessee and Georgia, roaring from behind at halftime in the latter, suggests that John Calipari can still squeeze some juice out of this UK orange.  Yes, turbulent times in Lexington, to be sure, butt we’d still be surprised if the Cats don’t make the Dance, so we’ll put them at the outer reaches of the field for now while waiting to see how many seed lines they might climb in the next few weeks.

Bruce Marshall

Bruce's unique and colorful brand of football and basketball analysis, as well as informed commentary on the national and international sports scene, has made him an in-demand guest for many years on numerous sports talk radio and TV shows across the country. Bruce's vast array of editorial work has also been featured in VegasInsider, along with the Las Vegas Review-Journal and New York Post. Bruce, who is also in the midst of several book projects, combines all of his work while splitting time between Celebration, Florida and Henderson, Nevada. More from Bruce Marshall