First Four: Arizona State vs. Nevada Picks, Predictions, Odds

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There will be some familiarity between the Arizona State Sun Devils and the Nevada Wolfpack when these teams meet in the final First Four game. Arizona State stars Warren Washington and Desmond Cambridge Jr. both spent the 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons at Nevada before transferring to Tempe to play for the Sun Devils. That will add a layer of intrigue to this matchup between border teams that have only played four times.

The most recent meeting between these schools occurred in December 2018 when Nevada was ranked No. 6 and Arizona State was ranked No. 20. The Wolfpack bested the Sun Devils 72-66, and they were a top ten team for most of the season.

On Wednesday, March 15, 2023, the Arizona State Sun Devils and Nevada Wolfpack will meet in the last First Four game. This tilt will take place at UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio with tip off slated for 9:10 p.m. ET on truTV. The winner of this game will face the No. 6 TCU Horned Frogs in the West Region.

Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Nevada Wolf Pack Betting Prediction

The recipe for success is pretty clear for the Arizona State Sun Devils. When they hold opponents to 65 points or less, Arizona State is 14-0 on the season. However, the Sun Devils are just 8-12 in games where their opponents have scored 66 points or more. This is a defense-first team under Bobby Hurley, as Arizona State ranks in the top 30 nationally defensively per Ken Pomeroy. The Sun Devils will be hard-pressed to keep a good Nevada team under that number though, and that will allow the Wolfpack to squeak out a victory.

Best Bet: Nevada +2 (-110)
Score Prediction: Nevada 71, Arizona State 69

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Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Nevada Wolf Pack Betting Odds

Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Nevada Wolf Pack Betting Resources

Date: Wednesday, Mar. 15, 2023
TV-Time: truTV, 9:10 p.m. ET
Venue: Dayton Arena
Location: Dayton, Ohio
Matchup
Expert Picks

Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Nevada Wolf Pack Betting Stats

Arizona State Sun Devils
SU: 22-12
ATS: 15-18-1
O/U: 17-17
PPG: 70.3
OPPG: 67.7

Nevada Wolf Pack
SU: 22-10
ATS: 19-12
O/U: 18-13
PPG: 72.6
OPPG: 66.9

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)
Points Per Game (PPG), Opponents Points Per Game (OPPG)

Updated on 05/10/2024

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Arizona State Sun Devils Betting Analysis

The Sun Devils have one of the worst offenses of any power conference team in the NCAA Tournament. Arizona State ranks 308th in effective field goal percentage, as this team is making just 31.4% of its three-point field goals and 47.9% of its two-point attempts. Additionally, ASU is struggling to hit its free throws (68.9% as a team).

Desmond Cambridge Jr. is the leading scorer at 13.7 PPG, but he isn't that effective of a shooter. Cambridge is making under 40% of his field goals, and he is hitting just 32.6% of his threes. D.J. Horne is the other Sun Devil averaging double digits per game with 12.1 PPG, and he is only making 35.6% of his field goals.

One of the most fascinating things about this team is how everyone is making about a third of their three-point attempts. The top five scorers on Arizona State are all making between 32.6% and 33.8% of their threes. No one else is averaging more than 4.5 PPG for the Sun Devils, so you pretty much know the likelihood of a three going in no matter who is taking it.

Defense is why Arizona State made it to March Madness. The Sun Devils rank 22nd in effective field goal percentage, and they do a great job of packing the paint. Opponents are making just 43.8% of their two-point attempts against ASU as Warren Washington is averaging 1.7 BPG and is a presence down low. Cambridge does an excellent job of forcing turnovers and Frankie Collins has done some good things in this area too.

Nevada Wolfpack Betting Analysis

Steve Alford has made history by bringing his fourth different team to the NCAA Tournament. Nevada was seen as a team on the wrong side of the cut line by many bracketologists, but the Wolfpack snuck into March Madness. They are a well-rounded team that doesn't make a lot of mistakes, and they have a solid perimeter shooter in Jarod Lucas. He leads the Wolfpack in scoring with 17.3 PPG, and he is making 37.9% of his three-point attempts. It's hard to close out on him too as he takes a higher percentage of his shots off screens than anyone in the country according to SynergySST.

The other shooter to watch on Nevada is Kenan Blackshear. He isn't a great perimeter shooter and has pretty much stopped shooting threes recently, but he is making 48.2% of his two-point attempts while averaging 14.4 PPG. Blackshear leads the team with 4.6 APG and 1.5 SPG, yet he must hit his shots if Nevada is going to win this game. The Wolfpack closed out the season with three straight losses and Blackshear went just 8 of 30 inside the three-point line in those games.

Nevada has a big man that can play with Washington in Will Baker, and Darrion Williams is a solid rebounder for an undersized power forward. Unlike Arizona State, the Wolfpack are comfortable at the free throw line late in a close game as the Wolfpack are sinking 79.2% of their free throws. Their top six scorers are all making 77.8% of their freebies.