Kentucky vs. Kansas State Picks, Predictions, Odds

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The Kentucky Wildcats are looking to make their first Sweet 16 in four seasons. Kentucky has been in a bit of a slump considering the program's reputation as a blue blood, and the Wildcats haven't been to the Final Four in eight years.

However, they are in good position to advance to the second weekend of the tournament as they are favored to beat the Kansas State Wildcats on Sunday afternoon. Kansas State is seen as the better team according to Ken Pomeroy's metrics, but the Wildcats lost consecutive games to close out the season before beating Montana State and doesn't have the same branding as Kentucky.

On Sunday, March 19, 2023, the Kentucky Wildcats will take on the Kansas State Wildcats at Greensboro Coliseum in Greensboro, North Carolina. Tip off is scheduled for 2:40 p.m. ET on CBS.

Kentucky Wildcats vs. Kansas State Wildcats Betting Preview

The X-Factor in this game is whether or not Kansas State can stop Oscar Tshiebwe on the glass. Tshiebwe was awesome in Kentucky's first round victory over Providence with 25 rebounds (11 offensive), and he had more than half of his team's rebounds.

Conversely, Providence could only pull down 31 boards, and that really hurt the Friars' chances of pulling off the upset. Kansas State is an above average team on the glass, but Keyontae Johnson and Nae'Qwan Tomlin will need to step up their games a bit if the underdogs want to advance.

Best Bet: Kansas State +3 (-110)
Score Prediction: Kansas State 77, Kentucky 75

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Kentucky Wildcats vs. Kansas State Wildcats Betting Odds

Kentucky Wildcats vs. Kansas State Wildcats Betting Resources

Date: Sunday, Mar. 19, 2023
TV-Time: CBS, 2:40 p.m. ET
Venue: Greensboro Coliseum
Location: Greensboro, North Carolina
Matchup
Expert Picks

Kentucky Wildcats vs. Kansas State Wildcats Betting Stats

Kentucky Wildcats
SU: 22-11
ATS: 16-16-1
O/U: 20-13
PPG: 74.6
OPPG: 67.6

Kansas State Wildcats
SU: 24-9
ATS: 21-12
O/U: 17-16
PPG: 75.5
OPPG: 68.9

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)
Points Per Game (PPG), Opponents Points Per Game (OPPG)

Updated on 04/18/2024

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Kentucky Wildcats Betting Analysis

Oscar Tshiebwe has been the best rebounder in the country for two straight seasons. Tshiebwe is averaging 16.2 PPG and 13.5 RPG, and he ranks in the top ten in both offensive rebounding percentage and defensive rebounding percentage. His ability to dominate at the rim despite being 6'9 frees up the rest of the Wildcats to spread the floor, and it helps open up things for Jacob Toppin in the mid-range game.

Antonio Reeves is the top backcourt player on Kentucky. Reeves is the second leading scorer on the Wildcats with 14.6 PPG, and he is hitting 41.4% of his three-point attempts on the season. The Illinois State transfer is having the best year of his career, as he looks to cap off his collegiate years with a title. His play has been extremely important considering Sahvir Wheeler's injury, and he has helped Cason Wallace develop as a freshman.

The Wildcats are simply above average on defense. They don't allow opponents to get many offensive rebounds because of the presence of Tshiebwe, but they don't force a lot of turnovers either. Wallace is a very good on-ball defender and ranks in the top 60 in steal percentage, but that doesn't translate to the rest of the team.

Kansas State Wildcats Betting Analysis

Keyontae Johnson is one of the two standout players for Kansas State. Johnson has rejuvenated his career in Manhattan after transferring from Florida, and he is averaging 17.7 PPG and 7.1 RPG. He had 18 points and eight rebounds in a first-round win over Montana State, and he continues to be a very effective shooter. Johnson is making 55.6% of his two-point field goals and 41.1% of his three-point attempts.

The other key player for Kansas State is 5'8 guard Markquis Nowell. He is averaging 16.8 PPG and 7.8 APG, and he ranks second nationally in assists. Nowell was superb on Friday night with 17 points and 14 assists, and he is an excellent free throw shooter. Opponents can punish him for his lack of size though, and that's something to watch on Sunday.

Kansas State has a top 20 defense in the nation per Ken Pomeroy. Nae'Qwan Tomlin is a very good interior defender and a solid shot blocker, and Nowell ranks in the top 60 nationally in steal percentage. Opponents are making just 30% of their threes against the Wildcats this season, so Kentucky will likely have to continually move the ball down low to Toppin and Tshiebwe.