Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:56 AM
Total Moves - Week 11
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College Football Week 11 Total Moves
Last week in college football was a rough one all the way around, as the total selections I landed on didn't come away with a single winner. In hindsight, it was probably too cute to go with the 'under' in the SMU/Memphis game as it was probably a spot to best stay away from, while the Michigan/Maryland game going 'over' the total was doomed in the 1st half when Maryland couldn't put any points up on the board after a few successful drives.
Bad weeks like that present an opportunity to get better, and hopefully this week the results fall into that category. It's a first time in a long time that the YTD record is below the .500 mark after a couple of rough weeks, so let's get right to the plays this week as I look to rectify that situation.
YTD: 10-11 ATS
Week 11 Total move to disagree with:
Connecticut/Cincinnati from 56.5 to 54.5
Don't understand this early week move much at all, as those who are of the mindset that the 'under' is the play here, have to figure that the Bearcats are going to blank the Huskies or give up just a single score at worst. I mean, Connecticut has allowed an average of 46.66 points per game in conference road tilts this year, and that number includes a very bad Massachusetts team putting up 35 points (the Minutemen's 2nd highest point total this year). The other foes that have hosted the Huskies include UCF (who put up 56 points) and Tulane (who put up 49 points) and in terms of talent level the Bearcats probably fall somewhere in-between those two programs.
So you can probably pencil in the Bearcats for 40+ points here, meaning that now with the move you are likely only going to need two scores from the visitors. Admittedly that's a tougher ask with Connecticut then it is with practically every other college football team in the nation, but 14 points is exactly the average amount of points the Huskies put up in their road games vs UCF and Tulane; again comparable teams.
Connecticut has also put up an average of 22.1 points per game in all conference games this year, and even if you eliminate that 56-point outburst in their win over Massachusetts, the average point total in AAC games still clocks in at 15.4/game.
Cincinnati's 0-4 O/U record at home has likely played into the early 'under' move, but at the same time the Bearcats have allowed at least 13 points against in all four of those home contests. Connecticut isn't going to provide much resistence in terms of Cincinnati putting up points as already addressed, so you could easily see the Bearcats defense go into prevent mode rather early here and give up some garbage time points that could potentially put an ATS win in peril. If that's the case, those same points will help push this game 'over' the number as 42-14 or even 48-10 – depending on what side of the point spread you may prefer – gets 'over' backers the win.
Week 11 Total move to agree with:
Tennessee/Kentucky from 41 to 42
Kentucky has been an 'under' team for five straight weeks now and because of it have forced their totals to open up lower and lower. Only one of those recent five games for the Wildcats would have eclipsed this current number of 42 – a 24-20 win over Arkansas – as this team prefers to rely on their defense to keep them in games. That defense has earned them three straight ATS wins – the last two as underdogs of +9.5 or greater – as this week's game is essentially a pick'em between themselves and the Volunteers.
Projected close games like this are never a bad option to look 'over' the total (if it makes sense in other regards) because of the higher likelihood we get extra time. And given the way college football OT rules work with both teams getting the ball at the 25-yard line, 'over's are never really dead if extra time happens, especially ones with low totals like this. That's not to say OT will be the end result here, but would a 17-17 game between two teams be all that surprising? I mean taking the difference between the points scored and points allowed by each offense and defense, you end up with a 23-22.7 game in favor of Tennessee. That's already enough points to cash an 'over' here as it is.
With both defenses coming off performances where they only allowed a single TD respectively, I believe we see that change quite a bit here. That type of recency bias may be somewhat reflective in this lower total, and with the 'over' on a 4-1 run in this rivalry, and Kentucky on a 5-2 O/U run at home, 12-4-1 O/U against a team with a losing record on the road, and 5-1 O/U off a SU win, we should get to 45+ points as those scoring averages suggest.
Other Notable Moves
Central Florida-Tulsa: 71 to 69
Wake Forest-Virginia Tech: 63.5 to 61.5
Baylor-TCU: 50 to 48
Georgia Tech-Virginia: 44 to 46
North Texas-Louisiana Tech: 68.5 to 71.5
New Mexico State-Mississippi: 62-64
Miami-Florida State: 46 to 48