2025 College Football Playoff Semifinal Odds: Lines & Betting Trends

Patrick Everson Sports Betting Expert

9 minute read

College Football Playoff odds for the semifinals are getting kicked around, with both matchups now having a few days to marinate.

On deck first in 2024-25 College Football Playoff semifinal odds: Penn State vs. Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl on Thursday night. Then comes Ohio State vs. Texas in the Cotton Bowl on Friday night.

Here’s everything you need to know about college football odds for semifinal playoff games: opening lines, spreads and betting trends, as multiple oddsmakers provide insights on College Football Playoff semifinal odds and action. Check back regularly for updates and use our BetMGM bonus code to get the most out of your action.

2024-25 College Football Playoff Odds Semifinals

Texas vs. Ohio State Odds

• Opening point spread: Ohio State -4.5
• Opening moneyline: Ohio State -192/Texas +160
• Opening total: Over/Under 52.5 points scored
• Time: 7:30 p.m. ET Friday, Jan. 10 (ESPN)

UPDATE 6:45 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Ohio State is 6 point chalk in BetMGM's College Football Playoff odds for the semifinals, with 45 minutes or so until kickoff. The Buckeyes opened -4.5 and quickly surged to -6/-6.5.

The line then spent the past week toggling between Ohio State -6/-5.5, at various juice.

"We're gonna need Texas tonight. It would be great if we could get the Longhorns outright. There's a heap of parlays that cash with Ohio State moneyline," BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee said. "But if we can get Texas to cover +6, that would be great for the book, as well."

The total opened at 54.5 and bounced between 53.5/52.5 a couple times late last week/early this week. It's been at various iterations of 52.5 since Thursday morning, and it's now 52.5 (Under -115).

Still, BetMGM is hoping for a lower-scoring affair.

"The Under is preferable for the book," Magee said.

UPDATE 10:30 A.M. ET FRIDAY: Nine hours before kickoff, ESPNBET has Ohio State at -6 (-115) in CFP semifinal odds. That's up a point from the -5 opener.

The Buckeyes are attracting 73% of spread bets/83% of spread money. Further, moneyline bettors are all over the favorite, with Ohio State taking 79% of bets/82% of money. The Buckeyes are currently -240 on the moneyline.

ESPNBET opened the total at 54.5 and now sits at 53.5 (Under -115). Still, 78% of bets and 75% of dollars are on the Over.

UPDATE 2:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: A day out from the Cotton Bowl, Ohio State is 6-point chalk in DraftKings' College Football Playoff odds semifinal market. On Jan. 1, the Buckeyes opened -4.5 and sped to -6.5 within 20 minutes.

Since then, the line has resided mostly at Ohio State -6, with a few short trips to -5.5. Spread tickets and money are running 4/1 on the Buckeyes.

"It's mostly Ohio State money. That's going to be the public's side of choice," DraftKings director of sportsbook operations Johnny Avello said.

The total jumped from 52.5 to 54.5 within the first few minutes on Jan. 1. It backed up to 53 briefly on Jan. 2 and has been stable at 53.5 since then. Ticket count is 3/1 on the Over, but money is running close to even, with a slight lean toward the Over.

"I could see the total coming down a tick. When you get into the playoffs, it tends to tighten up a little bit," Avello said.

UPDATE 9 P.M. ET MONDAY: Ohio State hit Borgata Sports' CFP semifinal odds board as 5.5 point chalk. And that didn't last long.

"This quickly went to -6.5, with mostly Ohio State money coming in early," Borgata sportsbook director Tom Gable said. "We have had some respected money come in on Texas at +6.5, and we are back down to 6.

"With Ohio State playing the way it has the last two games, I’m pretty sure the public will continue to back them here."

The total opened at 54.5 and is now 53.5.

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, JAN. 1: Back on Dec. 24, The SuperBook put up a prospective lookahead line of Ohio State -1.5 vs. Texas. When prospective became reality earlier this evening, the Buckeyes opened -6.5 in College Football Playoff odds for the semifinals.

"Ohio State looked so good today, and Texas looked questionable," SuperBook risk manager Casey Degnon said, before addressing early action on the Cotton Bowl. "We went right to 6. Then there were a couple bets on Ohio State spread and moneyline, and a couple small bets on the Over as well.

"But nothing too significant yet."

Degnon has an idea of how this evolves between now and Jan. 10.

"I think the spread will have decent two-way action. But once you add in moneyline parlays and teasers, I think we'll be rooting for Texas," he said.

The total hasn't moved off 54 in College Football Playoff semifinal odds.

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UPDATE 8:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, JAN. 1: Texas (13-2 SU/8-7 ATS) blew all of a 24-8 fourth-quarter lead vs. Arizona State, going to overtime tied at 24 in the Peach Bowl. The teams then exchanged touchdowns in the first OT to remain tied at 31.

The Longhorns followed with a touchdown/2-point conversion to open the second overtime. Texas then picked off Sam Leavitt to seal a 39-31 win, while failing to cash as hefty 13.5-point chalk.

Ohio State (12-2 SU/8-6 ATS) didn't have nearly that much trouble tonight, putting a beatdown on No. 1 seed Oregon. The Buckeyes led 34-0 late in the second quarter and coasted to a 41-21 victory as 2.5-point Rose Bowl favorites.

About 20 minutes ago, DraftKings Sportsbook opened Ohio State-Texas at Buckeyes -4.5. That line is already up to Ohio State -6.5. Likewise, the total is on the move early, from a 52.5 opener to 54.5.

UPDATE 11:15 P.M. ET TUESDAY, DEC. 31: Among the seven remaining teams, Texas is the +320 favorite to win the national title at DraftKings. But the No. 5 seed Longhorns (12-2 SU/8-6 ATS) first have to get through No. 4 Arizona State (11-2 SU and ATS).

The winner of that Peach Bowl matchup gets a Jan. 10 date with Ohio State or Oregon in the Cotton Bowl. The top-seeded Ducks (13-0 SU/7-6 ATS) and eighth-seeded Buckeyes (11-2 SU/7-6 ATS) meet in Wednesday's Rose Bowl.

DraftKings already has College Football Playoff semifinal odds on the board for the four possible Cotton Bowl matchups:

• Oregon -1.5 vs. Texas
• Oregon -13 vs. Arizona State
• Ohio State -2 vs. Texas
• Ohio State -13.5 vs. Arizona State

Those numbers will come off the board Wednesday. And there will likely be some adjusting once the matchup is set and DK reopens the game.

Penn State vs. Notre Dame Odds

• Opening point spread: Notre Dame -1.5
• Opening moneyline: Notre Dame -120/Penn State even
• Opening total: Over/Under 47.5 points scored
• Time: 7:30 p.m. ET Thursday, Jan. 9 (ESPN)

UPDATE 6:15 P.M. ET THURSDAY: With 75 minutes until kickoff, Notre Dame is 1-point chalk in BetMGM's College Football Playoff odds for the semifinals. A week ago, the Fighting Irish opened -1.5, and the line went to -2 Monday, then got to -2.5 for a few hours Tuesday.

By mid-afternoon Tuesday, it returned to Notre Dame -2, then went to -1.5 Tuesday night. The move to Irish -1 came early this morning.

"We started to see some Penn State money come in today. So the book looks to be in OK shape," BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee said, alluding to two-way action. "We'll see where the big rush of money falls, the closer we get to opening kick."

If the current situation holds up, the championship futures book comes into play.

"Our futures book looks great. Penn State is still our best result," Magee said. "I think either way, we'll get huge handle on the championship. It's a great set of four teams for us to have in the semis."

The total opened at 50.5 and quickly corrected downward. By Friday, it was at 46.5, and it bottomed out at 44.5 on Monday and Wednesday. It's now at 45.5.

"The total looks solid for us, too. Some sharp money came in on the Under. But slowly, some money cam in today on Over 44.5," Magee said.

UPDATE 2:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Five hours ahead of kickoff, Notre Dame is -1.5 (-105) in DraftKings Sportsbook's College Football Playoff semifinal odds. A week ago, the Fighting Irish opened -1.5 flat.

In between, the spread peaked at Notre Dame -2.5 a few times, but it's been steady at -1.5 since Tuesday afternoon. The Fighting Irish are drawing 64% of spread bets and spread money.

"We're a little heavy on the Notre Dame side, but not ridiculously heavy," DraftKings director of sportsbook operations Johnny Avello said, while noting the championship futures book plays a role tonight, too. "We were in OK shape with Notre Dame. But bettors piled on the Irish in the last three weeks or so."

So DraftKings is angling for a Penn State win tonight.

DK opened the total at 47.5 and slowly made its way down to 44.5 by Monday night. It's now at 45.5 (Under -118), with 63% of bets/70% of dollars on the Under.

"They've bet the Under a little. These are two offenses that can play wide-open, but this matchup could be a little conservative to start," Avello said.

UPDATE 9 P.M. ET MONDAY: Three days out from the first matchup, Notre Dame is laying 2 points at Borgata Sports, a BetMGM property in Atlantic City. That's up a tick from the opener of Fighting Irish -1.5 in College Football Playoff odds for the semifinals.

"There's not too much of a decision on the spread right now. But we have taken multiple five-figure wagers on the Notre Dame moneyline, at -125 and -130. Again, some local Penn State money is sure to come in here," Borgata sportsbook director Tom Gable said.

The total has been the bigger mover, getting bet down from 48.5 to 45.5.

"We definitely have some exposure at 47.5/47/46.5," Gable said.

UPDATE 9 P.M. ET THURSDAY: With 90 minutes to marinate tonight, The SuperBook moved Notre Dame from -1 to -1.5 in the College Football Playoff odds for the semifinals. That's in slight contrast to spread play so far.

"We got a couple small bets on Penn State spread," SuperBook risk manager Casey Degnon said. "But we've got more action on the moneyline than on the spread. There's more money on Penn State and more tickets on Notre Dame.

"I think we'll see good two-way on this game, with two popular teams. We might not know who we really need until kickoff."

The total quickly slid from 48.5 to 47, with stops at 48/47.5 along the way. Degnon said there were some small bets on the Under, but nothing too significant.

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UPDATE 7:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Notre Dame (13-1 SU/12-2 ATS) earned a spot opposite Penn State in the Orange Bowl. The Fighting Irish stifled Georgia throughout tonight's Sugar Bowl, winning 23-10 as 1-point favorites.

Along with its defense, a huge key for Notre Dame was Jayden Harrison's 98-yard kickoff return for a touchdown to open the second half. That put the Irish up 20-3, which proved insurmountable.

Notre Dame heads to the semis on a 12-game SU tear and has cashed in its last 10 games. Penn State is 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS in its last seven games.

DraftKings Sportsbook opened the Fighting Irish -1.5 in College Football Playoff semifinal odds. The total opened at 47.5. There's no movement yet on the spread or total.

UPDATE 5:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, JAN. 1: DraftKings Sportsbook reopened College Football Playoff semifinal odds for the two prospective Orange Bowl matchups.

Prior to Penn State's win over Boise State, DraftKings had the Nittany Lions as 2.5-point underdogs to Georgia. That matchup is now at Penn State +1.

DraftKings had Penn State as a 1.5-point 'dog to Notre Dame. That matchup is also now at Penn State +1.

UPDATE 11:15 P.M. ET TUESDAY, DEC. 31: No. 6 seed Penn State (13-2 SU/8-7 ATS) let Boise State hang around for significant stretches in the Fiesta Bowl. But the Nittany Lions eventually slammed the door with two defensive stops and a huge TD, winning 31-14 as 11.5-point favorites.

Nicholas Singleton's 58-yard touchdown run with 4:54 remaining sealed the deal. Next up for Penn State: No. 7 seed Notre Dame or No. 2 seed Georgia, who meet Thursday in the postponed Sugar Bowl.

Prior to the Nittany Lions' win, DraftKings Sportsbook already had College Football Playoff semifinal odds up for the two possible matchups. Penn State was a 2.5-point underdog to Georgia and a 1.5-point pup to Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl.

Orange Bowl odds are now off the board. Once the matchup is set and the game reopens, don't be surprised if those numbers adjust.

Patrick Everson

Patrick Everson is a senior reporter for VegasInsider. Based in Las Vegas since 1994, he's worked in the sports betting journalism/content space for more than a decade. He's most known for his deep roster of contacts behind sportsbook counters, providing readers and viewers with the ins-and-outs of how events are being bet. He's also a thought leader in the sports betting space, often appearing on or moderating panels at national conferences. More from Patrick Everson