SEC Betting Notebook – Week 14

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

26 minute read

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SEC Week 14 Schedule & Odds

Texas A&M (-5.5, 48) at Auburn
Arkansas at Missouri (-3, 53.5)
Florida (-17.5, 62.5) at Tennessee
South Carolina at Kentucky (-11.5, 47)
Alabama (-29, 66.5) at LSU

Odds Subject to Change

Week 14 is here and it contains five SEC games that we’ll preview momentarily. Saturday’s sixth SEC tilt between Vanderbilt and Georgia in Athens was postponed to Dec. 19 early Friday afternoon. Due to COVID-19, opt outs and injuries, the Commodores decided they couldn’t play tomorrow.

Ole Miss and Mississippi State are off after the Rebels won last week’s Egg Bowl 31-24. The Bulldogs took the money, though, as 9.5-point road underdogs.

Ole Miss has shut down all team activities amid a growing COVID-19 outbreak. The Rebels are hoping to return to practice on Dec. 9 and play next Saturday (12/12).

If Lane Kiffin’s team can’t play on Dec. 12, then all sorts of scheduling changes are going to have to take place. One scenario being thrown around is to have LSU at Florida and Alabama at Arkansas cancelled to give both teams an open date before their presumed (but not quite clinched) showdown at the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta on Dec. 19.

Along with many other bettors, I have a huge problem with that, not that our pockets will be taken under consideration by SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey. I own tickets on Alabama’s season win total to go ‘over’ 8.5 and for Florida’s to go ‘over’ 7.5. If both teams can win outright as double-digit favorites tomorrow, those bets become winners. However, those tickets won’t cash unless both teams play all 10 scheduled games. Otherwise, they become no-plays.

Anyway, going into this weekend, Alabama is the +125 ‘chalk’ to win the College Football Playoff at most books. Florida, which will clinch the SEC East with its next win or a Georgia loss, has 12/1 odds to win the CFP at most spots. UGA has 75/1 longshot odds at some shops.

Most books have the Crimson Tide as a -500 favorite to win the SEC. The Gators are at +250 odds, followed by Texas A&M (100/1) and UGA (250/1). Like I've been saying for weeks, gamblers can expect Alabama to be favored between 10 and 14 points vs. UF depending on performances and injuries between now and then. We also could be looking at the highest total we've ever seen in an SEC football game.

Three of the five SEC games have double-digit spreads, while Texas A&M at Auburn and Arkansas at Missouri have single-digit numbers. Let’s get to the games…

How to Handicap SEC Week 14

(Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS)

Scheduled for Saturday, Dec. 5

Texas A&M at Auburn

TV-Time: ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Jordan-Hare Stadium
Location: Auburn, Alabama

-- As of Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Texas A&M (6-1 straight up, 3-4 against the spread) installed as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 48.5. The Tigers were around +210 on the money line.

-- Since Texas A&M joined the SEC in 2012, the road team has won seven of the eight head-to-head meetings between these SEC West adversaries. However, the exception was 2018 on The Plains, where Auburn rallied from a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit to win a 28-24 decision. With last season’s 28-20 win in College Station, the Tigers have won three in a row over the Aggies.

-- The underdog has won outright in four of the last six games in this rivalry.

-- Auburn (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) is undefeated in four home games with a 3-1 spread record. Gus Malzahn owns a 7-3 ATS mark in 10 games as a home underdog during his eight-year tenure. The Tigers have home wins over Kentucky (29-13), Arkansas (30-28), LSU (48-11) and Tennessee (30-28) this year.

-- Auburn sophomore QB Bo Nix is a completely different player at Jordan-Hare Stadium, where he has an 8/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio this season. In eight games regardless of the venue, Nix has completed 61.2 percent of his passes for 1,854 yards with a 10/7 TD-INT ratio. He hasn’t always had the best protection, but he can make plays with his legs. Nix has 283 rushing yards, four TDs and a 3.5 yards-per-carry average.

-- Nix has an outstanding trio of wideouts to work with. Although he dropped what should’ve been an easy TD pass on a bomb from Nix late in the second quarter last week at Alabama, Seth Williams still has 36 receptions for 580 yards and three TDs. Anthony Schwartz has 46 catches for 566 yards and three TDs. He’s a burner who had 118 rushing yards, two TDs and a 10.7 YPC average in 2019. Despite missing two games, senior WR Eli Stove has caught 31 balls for 287 yards and three TDs.

-- True freshman RB Tank Bigsby has lived up to his billing as a potential star coming out of high school. However, he left the win over Tennessee two weeks ago with a hip pointer after rushing for 24 yards on his first three carries. Bigsby is a gamer and he showed up in Tuscaloosa, but he was clearly not 100-percent healthy and was limited to 39 rushing yards on 11 totes. Nevertheless, Bigsby still has 566 rushing yards, five TDs and a 5.5 YPC average. He also has 11 receptions for 84 yards, in addition to 300 yards on kick returns. Bigsby is listed as ‘questionable’ vs. the Aggies. Backup RB DJ Williams (32 carries for 183 yards with a 5.7 YPC average) has been ruled ‘out’ after leaving the loss at ‘Bama with an undisclosed injury.

-- If Bigsby isn’t able to play or aggravates his hip, the bulk of the Auburn ground attack will fall to junior RB Shaun Shivers, who has 189 rushing yards, one TD and a 4.5 YPC average in five games this year.

-- Jimbo Fisher’s team is 2-1 both SU and ATS in three road assignments this year. The Aggies won 28-14 at Mississippi St. and 48-3 at South Carolina, but they got spanked 52-24 at Alabama as 18-point road underdogs on Oct. 3. Since then, though, Texas A&M has won five consecutive games and the last four victories have come by margins of 11 points or more.

-- Texas A&M beat LSU 20-7 last Saturday night, but the Aggies burned their backers as 16-point home favorites when they allowed LSU to score on a Max Johnson TD pass to Terrace Marshall with 38 seconds remaining. The Aggies produced only 267 yards of total offense and were fortunate to finish the game +3 in turnover margin. Senior QB Kellen Mond had a dreadful performance, completing only 11-of-34 passes for 105 yards. Sophomore RB Isaiah Spiller ran for 141 yards and one TD on 27 carries.

-- Despite last week’s poor outing, Mond has enjoyed an outstanding season. He has connected on 59.3 percent of his throws for 1,573 yards with a stellar 16/2 TD-INT ratio. Mond has added 139 rushing yards and one TD.

-- Spiller has run for 784 yards and six TDs while averaging 6.0 YPC. He also has eight catches for 104 yards. According to Pro Football Focus College, Spiller leads all SEC running backs in yards after contact with 486. RB Ainias Smith has 187 rushing yards, two TDs and a 5.5 YPC average. Smith has produced team-highs in receiving yards (348) and TD catches (five) on 29 receptions.

-- Sophomore tight end Jalen Wydermyer is probably the SEC’s second-best at his position (behind Florida’s Kyle Pitts, obviously). He has matched his number of catches from last season (32) already and has 342 receiving yards and four TDs. Redshirt freshman WR Chase Lane has caught 24 balls for 323 yards and two TDs.

-- Texas A&M owns a 4-0 ATS record in four games as a road favorite since Fisher took over in 2018.

-- The ‘under’ is 4-3 overall for the Aggies after going 3-1 in their last four games. They’ve seen the ‘under’ cash at a 2-1 clip in their three road outings.

-- The ‘under’ is on a 5-0 run for Auburn to improve to 7-1 overall. The Tigers have seen the ‘under’ go 3-1 in their home contests.

Arkansas at Missouri

TV-Time: SEC, 12:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Memorial Stadium
Location: Columbia, Missouri

-- As of Friday afternoon, most books had Missouri (4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS) installed as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 52.5.

-- Arkansas (3-5 SU, 6-2 ATS) was the country’s lone team with a 6-0 spread record three weeks ago, but the Razorbacks are 0-2 ATS in their last two contests. The Hogs have lost three of four road games outright, but they’re 3-1 ATS and were robbed of a victory by the officials (mostly the ones in the replay booth) in a 30-28 loss at Auburn.

-- Sam Pittman’s team is off a gut-wrenching 27-24 home loss to LSU two weeks ago as a one-point home underdog. With a 21-20 lead early in the final stanza, Arkansas had to settle for a short 22-yard field goal to extend its lead to 24-20. This left the door open for LSU, which got a 13-yard TD pass with 3:59 remaining to take back the lead. With 1:24 left, A.J. Reed’s potentially tying 44-yard field goal was partially blocked.

-- Arkansas senior QB Feleipe Franks has upped his stock for the 2021 NFL Draft with his play for the Razorbacks, who didn’t have a spring practice due to COVID-19. That makes Franks’s season even more impressive in that he didn’t get many reps to establish chemistry with his new teammates since arriving in Fayetteville as a grad transfer from Florida. Franks hit 17-of-26 passes vs. LSU for 339 yards with one TD and one interception. He also ran for a team-high 43 yards and one TD on 14 attempts.

-- For the season, Franks has completed 68.0 percent of his passes for 2,017 yards with a 17/4 TD-INT ratio. The Wakulla High School (FL.) product has 229 rushing yards and one TD. Franks’s favorite target has been WR Treylon Brooks, who has 39 receptions for 598 yards and six TDs. Junior WR Mike Woods has 27 catches for 553 yards and four TDs.

-- Arkansas junior RB Trelon Smith has a team-high 469 rushing yards and two TDs while averaging 5.3 YPC. Senior RB Rakeem Boyd, who was a third-team All-SEC selection in 2019, has 309 rushing yards, three TDs and a 3.8 YPC average. However, Boyd opted out of the rest of the season earlier this week.

-- Missouri is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS at home. The lone outright loss at Faurot Field came against unbeaten Alabama (35-19) in the season opener. The Tigers have home wins over LSU (45-41), Kentucky (20-10) and Vanderbilt (41-0). They blanked the Commodores last week and easily took the cash as 14-point favorites. Connor Bazelak, who hasn’t thrown an interception at home all season, hit on 30-of-37 pass attempts for 318 yards vs. Vandy. Senior RB Larry Rountree, who has run for 119 yards or more in three straight home contests, torched the ‘Dores for 160 rushing yards and three TDs on 21 totes. RB Tyler Badie had a one-yard TD run and caught seven balls for 102 receiving yards.

-- For the season, Bazelak has completed 70.3 percent of his passes for 1,622 yards with a 5/2 TD-INT ratio. Rountree has 650 rushing yards, eight TDs and a 4.5 YPC average. Badie has 20 receptions for 302 yards and two TDs, in addition to running for 160 yards and two scores. Jalen Knox has 26 catches for 261 yards.

-- Missouri has won four games in a row in this rivalry, including last year’s 24-14 win in Fayetteville. The Razorbacks covered the number, though, as 13-point home underdogs.

-- Missouri is 30-22 ATS as a home favorite since 2010.

-- The ‘under’ has connected in four consecutive Missouri games to improve to 5-2 overall. Totals have been a wash (2-2) for the Tigers in their home games.

-- The ‘under’ is 5-3 overall for the Hogs, but they’ve seen the ‘over’ hit at a 3-1 clip in four road outings.

Florida at Tennessee

TV-Time: CBS, 3:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Neyland Stadium
Location: Knoxville, Tennessee

-- Florida is 14-1 against Tennessee in the past 15 head-to-head meetings, including a 34-3 win as a 14-point home favorite in Kyle Trask’s first career start last season. The last time the Gators came to Neyland Stadium (AKA: Swamp North) in 2019, they dealt Jeremy Pruitt’s team a 47-21 shellacking as 3.5-point road favorites. The Volunteers’ lone victory over UF in the past 15 years came in 2016, when Josh Dobbs rallied his team from a 21-0 deficit to a 38-28 victory as a 4.5-point home ‘chalk.’

-- As of Friday afternoon, most books had Florida (7-1 straight up, 4-3-1 against the spread) listed as a 17.5-point favorite with a total of 62.5. The Volunteers were around +525 on the money line.

-- Florida will bring a five-game winning streak to Knoxville since losing 41-38 at Texas A&M on a walk-off field goal on Oct. 10. The Gators are off a 34-10 win over Kentucky that saw its backers take a push as a 24-point home favorite. They were on the UK 2-yard line as time expired and kicker Evan McPherson hit the right goal post late in the third quarter for only his second miss of the season. The missed field goal and failure to get into the end zone on the final drive cost me (and other bettors) the ‘over’ on UF’s team total to go ‘over’ 20.5 points in the second half. (The Gators finished with 20 points in the final 30 minutes.) The 44 combined points dropped ‘under’ the 60.5-point total.

-- Florida fifth-year senior QB Kyle Trask is the betting favorite to win the Heisman Trophy at odds that I’ve seen priced anywhere from -110 to -160 this week. Trask didn’t have his best game vs. UK last week, but he completed 21-of-27 passes for 256 yards and three TDs without an interception. Junior TE Kyle Pitts returned from nasal surgery, a concussion and two games on the sidelines to catch 5 balls for 99 yards and three TDs. Trailing 10-7 with 42 seconds remaining in the second quarter, UF ruined money-line bets on Kentucky in the first half by returning a punt 50 yards for a TD. RB Dameon Pierce produced 67 rushing yards on just eight carries.

-- Florida is 6-3 ATS in nine games as a road favorite during Dan Mullen’s three-year tenure. The Gators are 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS in three road assignments this season. They covered by one-half point in a 51-35 win at Ole Miss but failed to get the money in a 38-17 win at Vanderbilt as 31-point ‘chalk.’

-- For the season, Trask has put up record-setting numbers. In eight games, he has connected on 71.4 percent of his passes for 2,810 yards with an incredible 34/3 TD-INT ratio. Trask is the country’s leader in TD passes, is ranked second nationally in passing yards per game (351.3 YPG), fifth in QB Rating (196.79) and seventh in completion percentage.

-- Toney is Trask’s favorite target, hauling in 45 receptions for 541 yards and seven TDs. According to PFF College, Toney has forced 29 missed tackles on his 55 catches in the last two seasons, the highest rate in all of college football. (Remember, a wrist injury limited Toney to seven games in 2019.) The senior WR also has 83 rushing yards and one TD on 13 attempts for a 6.4 YPC average. Toney is ninth in the SEC in all-purpose yards per game (108.0 YPG).

-- Although he’s been limited to six games and missed the second half of a 44-28 win over Georgia, Pitts still has 29 catches for 513 yards and 11 TDs. Senior WR Trevon Grimes is yet another weapon in a deep and talented core of WRs and TEs for the Gators. The transfer from Ohio St. has 24 receptions for 358 yards and six TDs. Justin Shorter, another transfer from Penn St., has caught 19 balls for 216 yards and three TDs.

-- Pierce has run for a team-best 412 yards and three TDs while averaging 5.2 YPC. He’s added 11 receptions for 114 yards and one TD, while junior RB Malik Davis has 196 rushing yards and a 4.0 YPC average. Davis has 19 catches for 295 yards.

-- PFF College has UF’s skill position groups ranked fourth in the nation (91.9) behind only No. 1 BYU, No. 2 Alabama and No. 3 North Carolina.

-- Florida is 12th in the nation in total offense, second in passing yards and 10th in scoring with its 43.4 PPG average.

-- Tennessee (2-5 SU, 1-5-1 ATS) started Jeremy Pruitt’s third season at the helm with wins at South Carolina (31-27 for a push) and vs. Missouri (35-12). Then the Volunteers had a goal-line stand to end the first half at Georgia and took a 21-17 lead into intermission in Athens. Since then, however, the season and Pruitt’s tenure have gone in the toilet. In fact, the Vols have been outscored 108-14 in the second half of their last five games.

-- UT’s five consecutive losses both SU and ATS have Pruitt on a boiling hot seat. AD Philip Fulmer made an appearance on Vol Calls earlier this week and failed miserably in trying to give Pruitt a vote of confidence. Like this space has been saying for several weeks, Pruitt is a goner at season’s end and I’m not even sure wins over Florida and Texas A&M next week can reverse that anticipated outcome.

-- Tennessee is 1-2 both SU and ATS in three home games. As home underdogs on Pruitt’s watch, the Vols have compiled a 3-5 spread record in eight such spots.

-- Tennessee led 10-0 at Auburn early in the second quarter of a 30-17 loss two weeks ago. The Tigers responded with 13 unanswered points to take a three-point lead midway through the third. On UT’s ensuing drive, it advanced into the red zone and appeared poised to at least pull even if not take the lead back. However, that’s when Auburn DB Smoke Monday intercepted UT senior QB Jarrett Guarantano and returned the pick 100 yards for a TD and a 20-10 lead. After AU extended the lead to 27-10, UT sophomore RB Eric Gray scored on a one-yard TD run with 4:07 remaining. Gamblers on the Vols +10 were at least looking at an unfortunate push at that point, but Malzahn went for the cover with 1:27 left and Anders Carlson delivered with a 50-yard field goal.

-- Gray enjoyed a sensational performance at Auburn. He ran for 173 yards and one TD on 22 carries. For the season, Gray has a team-high 651 rushing yards, four TDs and a 4.9 YPC average. Backup senior RB Ty Chandler has run for 315 yards and a pair of scores while averaging 4.4 YPC. Gray is also tied for the team lead in catches (22) and is second in receiving yards (199) with one TD reception.

-- Guarantano has completed 103-of-166 throws (62.0%) for 1,112 yards with a 6/4 TD-INT ratio. He’s been yanked in and out of the lineup by Pruitt constantly, and it remains to be seen if Guarantano will start (or even touch the field) vs. UF. According to a tweet from the Orlando Sentinel’s Edgar Thompson, a long-time UF beat writer, Guarantano has connected on 19-of-35 passes for 271 yards with zero TD passes, four interceptions and one lost fumble in three games against Florida. Pruitt has been non-committal on whether Guarantano or true freshman Harris Bailey will get the starting nod.

-- Bailey has appeared in three games, completing 14-of-23 passes (60.4%) for 175 yards with zero TDs and two interceptions. Senior WR Josh Palmer has 22 receptions for 331 yards and four TDs.

-- The ‘over’ is 5-3 overall for the Gators, 2-1 in their three road assignments. We should note back-to-back ‘under’ appearances in UF games, though.

-- The ‘under’ has been a steady money maker in Tennessee games, cashing in four straight contests to improve to 5-2 overall. The Vols have seen the ‘under’ go 3-0 in their home games. This is the second-highest total UT has seen this season, with the previous high being 67 vs. Alabama.

Saturday's Video Best Bets

South Carolina at Kentucky

TV-Time: SEC, 7:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Kroger Field
Location: Lexington, Kentucky

-- As of Friday afternoon, most books had Kentucky (3-6 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) installed as a 11.5-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 47.5. The Gamecocks were +350 on the money line.

-- Kentucky is 2-2 both SU and ATS in four home games this season, while South Carolina is 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS in four road assignments. The Wildcats have won five of the last six head-to-head meetings with the Gamecocks, but they saw their five-game winning streak snapped in a 24-7 loss at South Carolina last season.

-- Mark Stoops’s squad has lost back-to-back games and is mired in a 1-3-1 ATS slide. Kentucky led 10-7 at Florida late in the first half last week, only to give up a special-teams TD to kill its momentum with less than a minute remaining until halftime. From there, the Gators dominated in a 34-10 win, but UK backers got off the hook with a fortunate push due to multiple circumstances previously noted above in our UF-UT preview.

-- Kentucky third-year sophomore DB Kelvin Joseph opted out earlier this week to enter the 2021 NFL Draft. Joseph had recorded 25 tackles, one PBU, one-half tackle for loss, an SEC-best four interceptions and one pick-six. On the bright side for UK, it is expected to get back two offensive starters that have missed the last two games due to COVID-19, sophomore RB Chris Rodriguez and senior TE Justin Rigg. In seven games, Rodriguez has a team-high 562 rushing yards, six TDs and a 6.4 YPC average. Rigg has eight catches for 65 yards and one TD.

-- Kentucky is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games as a home favorite.

-- South Carolina (2-7 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) has dropped five consecutive games both SU and ATS, including last week’s 45-15 loss to Georgia as a 22-point home underdog. True freshman QB Luke Doty was given his first career start, and he completed 18-of-22 passes for 190 yards and one TD with one interception. Sophomore RB Kevin Harris was held to 53 rushing yards and one TD on 17 attempts. TE Nick Muse hauled in eight receptions for 131 yards and one TD, while Harris had four grabs for 30 receiving yards.

-- South Carolina star senior WR missed the loss to UGA after sustaining a concussion early in the first half of a 17-10 home loss to Missouri two weeks ago. However, Smith has practiced multiple times this week and interim HC Mike Bobo seemed confident that Smith was on track to play at UK in his post-practice remarks on Thursday. Smith has 54 receptions for 605 yards and four TDs in eight games.

-- Harris and Smith have been two of the only bright spots for South Carolina this season. Harris has emerged as a force, rushing for 928 yards and 14 TDs while averaging 5.7 YPC. He’s added 20 catches for 142 yards and one TD.

-- The ‘under’ is 6-3 overall for the Wildcats, but totals have been a wash for them at home (2-2).

-- The ‘over’ is 6-3 overall for the Gamecocks, 4-0 in their road assignments. This is the third-lowest total of the season for South Carolina. Both of its other games that had totals in the 40s went ‘over.’

Alabama at LSU

TV-Time: CBS, 8:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Tiger Stadium
Location: Baton Rouge, Louisiana

-- As of Friday afternoon, most books had Alabama (8-0 SU, 6-2 ATS) installed as a 29.5-point favorite with a total of 66.5. The Tigers were anywhere from +1300 (or 13/1) to +1850 on the money line at various shops.

-- LSU is the richest underdog for a defending national champion that we’ve seen in the last 40 years of college football. Furthermore, the Tigers haven’t been ‘dogs of this large an amount since facing top-ranked FSU as 28-point puppies in 1991.

-- LSU (3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS) lost its best offensive weapon (by far) this past Sunday when junior WR Terrace Marshall decided to opt out of the rest of the season to prepare for the 2021 NFL Draft. Marshall had 48 receptions for 731 yards and 10 TDs in seven games this year. Since the start of the 2019 campaign, Marshall had 23 TD grabs for LSU.

-- LSU hooked up its betting supporters last week in a 20-7 loss at Texas A&M. Max Johnson, the son of former FSU football and basketball star Brad Johnson, who won a Super Bowl as the starting QB for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2003, found Marshall for a three-yard scoring strike with 38 seconds remaining. The TD gave LSU a backdoor cover as 16-point underdogs.

-- LSU junior QB Myles Brennan was thriving in his first season as the starter in his teams’ first three games. He completed 79-of-131 throws (60.1%) for 1,112 yards with an 11/3 TD-INT ratio. However, Brennan sustained an abdominal injury in a 45-41 loss at Missouri, and he hasn’t played since then. Orgeron has left a small window open for his return at some point, but he remains ‘out’ vs. ‘Bama.

-- The QB job has been left to a pair of true freshmen in TJ Finley and Johnson, who might get his first career start in this spot. Finley has started four games, but he’s been yanked in losses at Auburn and at Texas A&M. Finley has completed 58.9 percent of his passes for 797 yards with a 4/5 TD-INT ratio. In three games, Johnson has connected on 63.0 percent of his passes for 285 yards and two TDs without an interception.

-- Without Marshall, true freshman TE Arik Gilbert will probably get more targets. The five-star recruit has 30 catches for 339 yards and two TDs.

-- Nick Saban will be back on the sidelines after missing last week’s 42-13 win over Auburn after testing positive for COVID-19. Alabama covered the spread for the fifth straight game as a 25.5-point home ‘chalk.’ Junior QB Mac Jones, who has the second-shortest odds to win the Heisman Trophy (+150 at most shops), threw for 302 yards and five TDs without an interception in the Iron Bowl. Senior RB Najee Harris ran for 96 yards and one TD on 11 carries, in addition to catching two passes for 34 receiving yards. DeVonta Smith enjoyed in his last appearance at Bryant-Denny Stadium, bringing down seven receptions for 171 yards and two TDs. John Metchie added six catches for 55 yards and two TDs.

-- For the season, Jones has completed 76.2 percent of his passes for 2,728 yards with a 23/2 TD-INT ratio. Harris has run for a team-best 893 yards and 17 TDs with a 6.0 YPC average. Harris also has 24 receptions for 244 yards, while Smith has 72 grabs for 1,074 yards and 12 TDs. Since Jaylen Waddle went down with an injury in a 48-17 win at Tennessee, Metchie has emerged as the squad’s No. 2 wideout. Metchie has 31 catches for 590 yards and six TDs.

-- Some books have Alabama’s team total at 48.5 points, with the ‘under’ shaded to a price around -120. LSU’s team total is 19.5 points and if I were to make a play there, I’d go ‘under.’

-- Alabama is fifth in the nation in total offense, fourth in passing yards and third in scoring with its 48.5 PPG average. The Tide’s defense is ranked 17th in scoring ‘D,’ giving up just 18.5 PPG.

-- Since the ‘over’ hit in Alabama’s first four games, the ‘under’ is on a 3-1 run. The ‘over’ is 2-1 in the Tide’s three road outings. The Alabama defense has allowed only 16 combined points in its last three games.

-- The ‘under’ has been a winner in three consecutive LSU games to improve to 4-3 overall. The Tigers have watched the ‘over’ hit in both of their home games.