Iowa State vs. Texas Week 13 Predictions, Odds

• November 27, 2020
• By Jonathan Willis
• VegasInsider.com

The Iowa State Cyclones haven’t won a conference title since 1912, but head coach Matt Campbell has this program on the precipice.

They have already defeated the Oklahoma Sooners, and a victory over the Texas Longhorns on Black Friday would make it nearly impossible for the Cyclones to miss out on the Big 12 Championship Game.

Meanwhile, a Texas victory could lead to a four-way tie for first place as Iowa State, Texas, and the two Oklahoma schools would all have two losses.

BETTING RESOURCES

• Week 13 Matchup: Big 12 Conference
• Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
• Venue: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
• Location: Austin, Texas
• Date: Friday, November 27, 2020
• Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
• Bet: BetMGM | BetRivers | FanDuel | PointsBet |All

Iowa State-Texas Betting Odds

Line Movements

• Spread: Texas -1
• Money-Line: Texas -115 Iowa State -105
• Total: 57

Odds Subject to Change

Iowa State QB Brock Purdy will be looking to capture a big win on Friday when the Cyclones meet Texas from Austin. (AP)

How to Handicap Iowa State-Texas

The Cyclones didn’t get off to a great start this year. Iowa State lost at home to Louisiana as a two-touchdown favorite in the season opener, and they narrowly defeated TCU in Fort Worth.

An upset win over Oklahoma in Ames announced they could make a run at the conference title though, and they are 6-1 in Big 12 play. Iowa State has covered in four of its last six games coming into Friday after shellacking Kansas State 45-0 last weekend.

Iowa State completely dominated Kansas State in every aspect of the game. The Cyclones outgained the Wildcats by 390 yards, and they had almost three times as many first downs. This offense has averaged 45 points per game over its last three outings.

Texas has failed to earn the cover in five of its last six games, burning bettors regularly.

The offense was great, but the defense let the team down in the Longhorns’ first four games, leading to all those games going over the total. We’ve seen the inverse happen in two of the last three weeks, but the Longhorns have largely leaned on their defense for three straight wins.

Three of Texas’ games have gone to overtime, and the Longhorns have a 2-1 record in the extra sessions. The loss came in quadruple-overtime to Oklahoma, but they managed to outlast Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.

Betting Analysis – Iowa State

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• 2020: 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS, 4-4 O/U

This has been one of the best all-around teams in the country. Iowa State is ranked 14th in SP+, and the Cyclones were 13th in the initial College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday.

QB Brock Purdy hasn’t been as great under center as he was last year, but he has been largely solid.

Purdy threw five interceptions in a three-game stretch, leading to diminished performances against Oklahoma State, Kansas, and Baylor, but he was stellar against Kansas State last week. He completed 80 percent of his passes for 11.8 YPA with three touchdowns and no turnovers against the Wildcats.

The ground game has been excellent with Breece Hall leading the way. He has run for 1,169 yards (6.5 YPC) and 15 touchdowns on the season, while Purdy is complementing Hall with 4.6 YPC and three touchdowns.

That’s pretty impressive considering starting left guard Trevor Downing and right tackle Joey Ramos have been out for over a month.

We’ve seen some quality receivers at Iowa State over the last decade, and Xavier Hutchinson is the next in a long lineage.

He has 41 receptions for 518 yards and four touchdowns. Tight end Charlie Kolar has been a solid option for Purdy and the offense too with 25 catches for 286 yards and four scores.

Iowa State’s defense has done an excellent job stopping the run. Opponents are averaging 3.1 YPC and 105.8 YPG on the ground against this front seven, but the secondary has had some hiccups in the pass-happy Big 12.

The Cyclones are conceding 7.5 YPA and 229.8 YPG through the air.

Friday's College Football Best Bets

Betting Analysis - Texas

• 2020: 5-2 SU, 2-4-1 ATS, 5-2 O/U

This is Texas’ first game in three weeks.

The Longhorns had a bye after beating West Virginia 17-13 on November 7, and their game against Kansas last week was postponed due to COVID-19.

The offense continues to be pretty good, but not great under head coach Tom Herman. Texas is currently ranked 22nd in offensive SP+.

QB Sam Ehlinger hasn’t been that accurate, completing just 58.8 percent of his passes for 7.3 YPA with 22 touchdowns and five interceptions. He remains a solid running threat though, carrying the ball 73 times for 431 yards and seven touchdowns once you take out sack yards.

Top running back Keaontay Ingram is questionable to play after suffering an injury against Oklahoma State.

Ingram is one of three backs with at least 50 carries for Texas along with Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson. Robinson has been the most successful with 5.8 YPC, while Johnson is averaging 4.3 YPC and Ingram is at 4.7 YPC.

Ehlinger will have his full contingent of receivers and tight ends available for the first time all season.

Wide receiver Jordan Whittington and tight end Cade Brewer are slated to return this week, while WR Joshua Moore and TE Jared Wiley are listed as probable.

Moore is the team’s leading receiver and thrived against both Texas Tech and Oklahoma. He has two receptions or less in three of his last four games, but he has seven touchdowns on his 22 receptions.

Texas is ranked 38th in defensive SP+, which is a system derived from both play-by-play and drive data, focused on five categories.

The Longhorns are allowing 282.3 YPG through the air (113th in the nation), but they are conceding just 6.7 YPA. They have excelled at getting off the field allowing opponents to convert just 36.7 percent of third downs and 18.2 percent of fourth downs.

Historically Speaking

Head-to-Head

The Longhorns have won 14 of 17 meetings between these two teams. They only met once before both schools became part of the Big 12, but the Cyclones have only recently become competitive.

Last Meeting - 2019 (Iowa State 23 Texas 21)

Campbell led Iowa State to a win over Texas for the first time in his tenure last year. The Cyclones took a 20-7 lead into the fourth quarter, but the Longhorns roared back and moved on top with five minutes remaining.

Connor Assalley nailed a 36-yard field goal at the gun to give the Cyclones a 23-21 win. Purdy threw for over 350 yards and Hall ran for more than 100 yards in the win, while the Longhorns averaged just 2.1 YPC.

Notable Betting Trends

-- The last five games in this series have all gone under

-- Iowa State has failed to cover the spread in all four games (1-3 SU) under Campbell versus Texas

-- Texas is 1-6 ATS in its last seven Friday games

Iowa State-Texas Predictions

• Score Prediction: Iowa State 34, Texas 24
• Best Bet: Iowa State +1