Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:48 AM

Iowa State vs. Texas Week 13 Predictions, Odds

  • November 27, 2020
  • By Jonathan Willis

The Iowa State Cyclones haven’t won a conference title since 1912, but head coach Matt Campbell has this program on the precipice.

They have already defeated the Oklahoma Sooners, and a victory over the Texas Longhorns on Black Friday would make it nearly impossible for the Cyclones to miss out on the Big 12 Championship Game.

Meanwhile, a Texas victory could lead to a four-way tie for first place as Iowa State, Texas, and the two Oklahoma schools would all have two losses.


Iowa State-Texas Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: Texas -1
  • Money-Line: Texas -115 Iowa State -105
  • Total: 57

Odds Subject to Change

How to Handicap Iowa State-Texas

The Cyclones didn’t get off to a great start this year. Iowa State lost at home to Louisiana as a two-touchdown favorite in the season opener, and they narrowly defeated TCU in Fort Worth.

An upset win over Oklahoma in Ames announced they could make a run at the conference title though, and they are 6-1 in Big 12 play. Iowa State has covered in four of its last six games coming into Friday after shellacking Kansas State 45-0 last weekend.

Iowa State completely dominated Kansas State in every aspect of the game. The Cyclones outgained the Wildcats by 390 yards, and they had almost three times as many first downs. This offense has averaged 45 points per game over its last three outings.

Texas has failed to earn the cover in five of its last six games, burning bettors regularly.

The offense was great, but the defense let the team down in the Longhorns’ first four games, leading to all those games going over the total. We’ve seen the inverse happen in two of the last three weeks, but the Longhorns have largely leaned on their defense for three straight wins.

Three of Texas’ games have gone to overtime, and the Longhorns have a 2-1 record in the extra sessions. The loss came in quadruple-overtime to Oklahoma, but they managed to outlast Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.

Betting Analysis – Iowa State

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • 2020: 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS, 4-4 O/U

This has been one of the best all-around teams in the country. Iowa State is ranked 14th in SP+, and the Cyclones were 13th in the initial College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday.

QB Brock Purdy hasn’t been as great under center as he was last year, but he has been largely solid.

Purdy threw five interceptions in a three-game stretch, leading to diminished performances against Oklahoma State, Kansas, and Baylor, but he was stellar against Kansas State last week. He completed 80 percent of his passes for 11.8 YPA with three touchdowns and no turnovers against the Wildcats.

The ground game has been excellent with Breece Hall leading the way. He has run for 1,169 yards (6.5 YPC) and 15 touchdowns on the season, while Purdy is complementing Hall with 4.6 YPC and three touchdowns.

That’s pretty impressive considering starting left guard Trevor Downing and right tackle Joey Ramos have been out for over a month.

We’ve seen some quality receivers at Iowa State over the last decade, and Xavier Hutchinson is the next in a long lineage.

He has 41 receptions for 518 yards and four touchdowns. Tight end Charlie Kolar has been a solid option for Purdy and the offense too with 25 catches for 286 yards and four scores.

Iowa State’s defense has done an excellent job stopping the run. Opponents are averaging 3.1 YPC and 105.8 YPG on the ground against this front seven, but the secondary has had some hiccups in the pass-happy Big 12.

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