Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Wisconsin Badgers Predictions, Odds, Picks

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

Sept. 23, 2021

Eytan Shander
VI College Football Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

The Badgers have been rolling ever since their opening week loss to Penn State as they face an undefeated Irish team that’s needed some late heroics to survive. The game features two distinctly different styles of offense. ND and – former Badger – Jack Coan wanting to throw as much as possible, where Wisconsin will rely on running the ball. The game will also be played at Soldier Field in Chicago.

Score Prediction: Wisconsin 17, Notre Dame 13

Best Bet: Under 46.5

Best Bet: Notre Dame +6.5

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Wisconsin Badgers Predictions

The difference-maker come Saturday afternoon will be how well both defenses play, but specifically Wisconsin against the pass. Notre Dame has a sharp QB in Coan who can make deep passes downfield, but they have very little action in the run game. It’s going to be easier for Wisconsin to slow down the Irish air game, than it will be for Notre Dame to stop Wisconsin’s rushing attack. What keeps this close - and ultimately an Irish cover - is just how bad Badgers QB Graham Metz is under pressure.

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Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Wisconsin Badgers Betting Odds

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Wisconsin at 2-1 sits as a -6.5-point “home” favorite against a 3-0 Notre Dame squad.

The total is only at 46.5 for this game as it’s being played on a neutral field.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Wisconsin Badgers Betting Resources

Matchup: Independent vs. Big 10
Date: Saturday, September 25, 2021
Venue: Solider Field
Location: Chicago, Illinois
TV-Time: FOX - 12:00 p.m. ET

Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 3-0
ATS: 1-2
O/U: 2-1
ATS - Home: 1-1
ATS - Away: 0-1

Two huge keys to an Irish cover rest on the QB and their defense. If Coan can protect the football while taking some risks deep down field, the team will be in the game and not have to rely so much on running. The Irish defense must force some turnovers, creating a short field or even points directly from them. Metz is not good with bodies flying at him, so the sooner the Irish apply the pressure the better.

Wisconsin Badgers Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 1-1
ATS: 1-1
O/U: 0-2
ATS - Home: 1-1
ATS - Away: 0-0

The Badgers have one heck of a rushing attack that’s second only to how well they stop the run. While they can be exposed in certain areas in the secondary, their pass rush and front 7-8 can hand out punishment to opposing backs and QBs. The Irish avoided a letdown against Florida State’s running game, so Wisconsin should be able to keep the ball for extended periods of time.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have won 19 of their last 21 games. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Record: 3-0
VI Ranking: 9
Points Scored: 100
Points Allowed: 80
PS/G: 33.3 (52nd)
PA/G: 26.7 (84th)

Inside the Stats - Wisconsin Badgers

Record: 1-1
VI Ranking: 23
Points Scored: 44
Points Allowed: 23
PS/G: 22 (105th)
PA/G: 11.5 (11th)

Key Players to Watch

ND: Jack Coan - QB (62/99, 828 yards, 8 TD, 2 INT)
ND: Kyren Williams - RB (46 carries, 366 combined yards, 4 total TD)
WIS: Chez Mellusi - RB (51 carries, 265 yards, 2 TD)
WIS: Danny Davis - WR (11 catches, 129 yards)

Injuries

ND: C'Borius Flemister - RB (Undisclosed-Questionable)
ND: Lawrence Keys III - WR (Undisclosed-Questionable)
ND: Marist Liufau - LB (Lower Body-Out)
ND: Shayne Simon - LB (Shoulder-Out)
ND: Paul Moala - LB (Achilles-Questionable)
WIS: Faion Hicks - CB (Undisclosed-Questionable)
WIS: Jack Eschenbach - TE (Arm-Questionable)
WIS: Tyler Mais - S (Undisclosed-Questionable)
WIS: Collin Wilder - S (Undisclosed-Questionable)
WIS: Deron Harrell - CB (Leg-Questionable)
WIS: Leon Chenal - LB (Covid-Questionable)
WIS: Aaron Witt - LB - (Leg-Questionable)
WIS: Antwan Roberts - RB (Suspended-Out)
WIS: Al Ashford - CB (Arm-Out)
WIS: Jalen Berger - RB (Leg-Questionable)
WIS: Cole Dakovich - TE (Leg-Out)
WIS: Jordan Turner - LB (Undisclosed-Out)
WIS: Jack Nelson - OL (Arm-Questionable)
WIS: Logan Brown - OL (Head-Questionable)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Wisconsin Badgers Betting Conclusion

Wisconsin wins this game on the neutral field, but Notre Dame keeps it close. This is a low-scoring football game that will comfortably hit under, mainly because Notre Dame isn’t looking for a shootout either. Both teams will deal with the neutral field element, which usually translates into taking time to settle in their game plans. Watch the clock move and teams stay out of the endzone as the Irish hang on to cover that 6.5.