Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Texas Longhorns Predictions, Odds, Picks

Sept. 22, 2021
Stuart Durst
VI College Football Betting Expert

Who doesn't like a good old-fashioned rivalry game? The annual Texas vs. Texas Tech meeting is always must watch TV, with both of these in-state rivals battling it out once again. Effort is never something to be questioned in these kinds of games, and college football bettors should be excited to watch these two teams battle it out Saturday afternoon.

While neither team will have an explicit home field advantage, this is a Longhorns home game and will take place in Austin, Texas. Despite this, expect to see plenty of Red Raiders in attendance. Kick off is set for 12:00 p.m. ET on ABC, so make sure you get your bets in early.

Score Prediction: Texas 35, Texas Tech 33

Best Bet: Texas Tech +8

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Texas Longhorns Predictions

UniBet and SugarHouse are laying a good number compared to the rest of the market for Texas Tech backers. While its -7.5 on most sportsbooks, +9 is a nice cushion. However, this is is changing constantly and many Vegas books have settled around +8. It doesn't move through any key numbers, but I'll take the points when I can.

Both of these teams are off to pretty solid starts. Texas beat Louisiana to start off the year well, but then quickly dropped a game to Arkansas. They bounced back last week, crushing Rice and now hope to bring that same momentum into this game.

Texas Tech started the year with an exclamation mark, beating a tough Houston team by 17 points. After that, they took care of business against FIU and Stephen F. Austin in two fairly simple games. A 3-0 start is just what this team wanted entering Austin, and I expect them to bring all the fight against a tough Texas team.

I personally think this spread should be a bit closer to -6, and so I'll take the value with Texas Tech. They are going to face their toughest matchup of the year, but I think they're very capable of covering this game - covering four of their last six overall.

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Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Texas Longhorns Betting Odds

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With a spread anywhere between 7.5 and - 9, sportsbooks across the country expect Texas to win this game by at least a touchdown.

The total is anywhere between 60-62 with most sportsbooks. We’ve seen these teams involved in shootouts in the past, as sportsbooks clearly think we may be repeating history.

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Texas Longhorns Betting Resources

  • Matchup: Big 12
  • Date: Saturday, September 25, 2021
  • Venue: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
  • Location: Austin, Texas
  • TV-Time: ABC - 12:00 p.m. ET

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Texas Tech Red Raiders Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 3-0
  • ATS: 2-1
  • O/U: 1-2
  • ATS - Home: 1-1
  • ATS - Away: 1-0

This team lives and dies by quarterback Tyler Shough. While that isn't necessarily uncommon for starting quarterbacks, the Oregon transfer truly is this team's offensive 'x-factor'. While he's not the popular dual threat quarterback, hes done a good job of winning the turnover battle and letting his playmakers do all the dirty work.

This Red Raiders' defense is also stronger than it has been over the last couple years, but Texas will really put them to the test. They have been successful in limiting the running game so far, and that's going to be a huge key to success on Saturday. If Robinson ends up over 110 yards this weekend, then its going to be really hard for Texas Tech to get that offense on the field and maximize their drives to the fullest potential.

I don't think Texas is a great matchup, but excited enough from what I've seen to back Texas Tech here. Slough looks like hes progressing every game and this team can definitely cover a 9-point spread if they are having a good day.

Texas Longhorns Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 2-1
  • ATS: 2-1
  • O/U: 2-1
  • ATS - Home: 2-0
  • ATS - Away: 0-1

It's been an interesting ride for Texas fans so far. Their offensive production has been a bit all over the place thus far, running back Bijan Robinson was touted as a Heisman candidate coming into the year, but hasn't exactly been playing on that level yet. He's definitely played well in their wins, but only rushing for 69 yards against Arkansas was definitely frustrating.

A lot of Robinson's problems have all come from the lack of starting starting quarterback consistency, and the defense's ability to stack the box and really game plan for him. That being said, Casey Thompson was my preferred starter at the beginning of the season, and it finally looks like he will be able to excel in that role being named Saturday's starter.

Texas Tech hasn't allowed a rusher to eclipse 80 yards yet this year, but I think Robinson should change that. If they are able to grab an early lead and keep the Red Raiders offense off the field, then they should be able to severely limit Texas Tech's biggest advantage in this game. Overall, I think Texas wins this game but just by not enough to cover.

The Texas Longhorns have named Casey Thompson the starting quarterback for Saturday's game against Texas Tech. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Texas Tech Red Raiders

  • Record: 3-0
  • VI Ranking: 31
  • Points Scored: 120
  • Points Allowed: 64
  • PS/G: 40 (26th)
  • PA/G: 21.3 (60th)

Inside the Stats - Texas Longhorns

  • Record: 2-1
  • VI Ranking: 27
  • Points Scored: 117
  • Points Allowed: 58
  • PS/G: 39 (32nd)
  • PA/G: 19.3 (47th)

Key Players to Watch

  • TXT: Tyler Shough - QB (55/81, 804 yards, 6 TD, 2 INT)
  • TXT: Tahj Brooks - RB (35 carries, 284 yards, 4 TD)
  • TEX: Bijan Robinson - RB (52 carries, 299 yards, 5 TD)
  • TEX: Xavier Worthy - WR (10 catches, 163 yards, TD)


  • TEX: Brayden Liebrock - TE (Shoulder-Out)
  • TEX: Ishmael Ibraheem - DB (Knee-Out)
  • TEX: Jaden Alexis - WR (Knee-Out)
  • TEX: Troy Omeire - WR (Knee-Out)
  • TEX: Jahdae Barron - DB (Knee-Out)

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Texas Longhorns Betting Conclusion

The spread is playable anywhere at +7.5 or more. If Texas Tech drops under a touchdown, then I think a lot of the value is sucked out of this play and would stay away. This is a risky play trusting an underdog against an already established powerhouse team, but trust what you've seen from the Red Raiders so far and take anything over a touchdown spread.

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Texas Longhorns Betting Trends

  • Texas Tech has covered the spread in four of its last six games.
  • Texas Tech has lost 11 of its last 13 road games.
  • Texas Tech has gone UNDER the point total in five of its last seven games.
  • Texas has gone OVER the point total in four of its last five games.
  • Texas has won nine of its last 11 home games.