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Sep 29, 2021

BYU Cougars vs. Utah State Aggies Predictions, Odds, Picks

Oct. 1, 2021
Thom Cunningham
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

Friday night college football action sees a battle in the mountains as the Utah State Aggies take on the BYU Cougars from Maverik Stadium in Logan, Utah. The interstate game is set to air on CBSSN at 9:00 p.m. ET, the last game to kick off on Friday evening.

Score Prediction: BYU 34, Utah State 24

Best Bet: Under 62

Best Bet: BYU -8.5

BYU Cougars vs. Utah State Aggies Predictions

This is traditionally a high scoring game, as the OVER has cashed for bettors three straight times these two teams meet. It has also hit in four of the last five meetings, so why consider the UNDER instead as a best bet? For starters, the point total is very high, set above 60 which hasn't been the case the last five meetings.

So although the point total has gone OVER in four of five meetings between the Utah schools, the highest total was set at 54.5 in those games. The winning team has scored a minimum of 40 points in four of the last five meetings though, but looking at recent trends the Cougars have gone UNDER in three of four games this season. Between recent and historical trends, siding with the recent ones are typically more reliable.

Going off recent trends as well, there are recent stats to support a possible UNDER play - with BYU only averaging 28 points per game. That ranks only 76th nationally, while holding opponents to under 20 points per game. Holding Utah State under 20 was just achieved by Boise State, holding them out of the end zone in fact.

After the defeat to Boise State, it's tough to side with Utah State's 31.5 ppg offense over the BYU 19.2 pag defense. Recent trends support the UNDER here, despite the historical data suggesting otherwise.

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BYU Cougars vs. Utah State Aggies Betting Odds

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BYU Cougars vs. Utah State Aggies Betting Resources

  • Matchup: Independent vs. Mountain West
  • Date: Friday, October 1, 2021
  • Venue: Maverik Stadium
  • Location: Logan, Utah
  • TV-Time: CBSSN - 9:00 p.m. ET



BYU Cougars Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 4-0
  • ATS: 2-2
  • O/U: 1-3
  • ATS - Home: 2-1
  • ATS - Away: 0-1

BYU is having a quarterback dilemma, as Jaren Hall is suffering through a rib injury while backup Baylor Romney has been playing well. The two have combined for 11 TD's and just 2 INT (both from Hall), so it's not as much of a dilemma as it is a question on who BYU will play.

Either way, the quarterback swapping could end up limiting the amount of points BYU is able to score in this tough road game. It may not matter, but sometimes a quarterback carousel limits an offense rather than propelling it. Regardless of the quarterback situation, the team only averages four TDs per game.

For how good of aerial stats BYU actually has, it's a bit confusing to see why they are limited in scoring touchdowns. They have two wide receivers in Neil Pau'u and Gunner Romney with each over 200 yards and seven combined TDs, along with five different players catching at least one TD in just four games played.

The running game could be better, as Tyler Allgeier averages the fewest amount of yards per carry in the backfield at 4.4. In fact, it's Hall who averages 8.3 yards per carry when he decides to tuck it and run. So it seems BYU has pieces in place to be an effective offense but are still lacking the firepower to put up a lot of points quickly with the departure of Zach Wilson. It should turn around at some point, but on a shortened week against a rivalry school on the road is a tough ask.

Utah State Aggies Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 3-1
  • ATS: 3-1
  • O/U: 2-2
  • ATS - Home: 1-1
  • ATS - Away: 2-0

Utah State will need a complete turnaround on offense if it wants to upset BYU at home, as an offense that averages over 30 points a game has no excuse to not see the end zone. Held to just a field goal a week ago, look for the Aggies to begin this game with urgency. Despite ranking 101st (out of 130) nationally in points allowed per game, they were able to stop the bleeding on Boise State who couldn't quite get past the 27-point mark.

With a 'bend but don't break' performance on defense against Boise State, along with BYU's struggling offense, it seems the Aggies might enter this game with conviction at home. If the Aggies wish to limit this BYU offense from reaching its potential, it starts with Justin Rice who has three interceptions this season to go along with 40 tackles, two passes deflected and a forced fumble.

Rice leads Utah State's defense in all those categories, so if he has a bad night or is the victim of a targeting penalty then BYU's offense might finally open up a bit. Utah State defends the pass well though, with four interceptions and 14 pass deflections. The Aggies only have six sacks though, so quarterback pressure could be an issue.

Utah State can contend on offense, with three wide receivers the Cougars need to be weary of. Devin Thompkins is at 29 catches with over 500 yards and three TDs, while Brandon Bowling has 20 catches this season to go along with 326 yards and three TDs. Justin McGriff and Derek Wright are also very productive, so the BYU defense that only allows 19.2 points per game will be tested by these four.

Inside the Stats - BYU Cougars

  • Record: 4-0
  • VI Ranking: 15
  • Points Scored: 112
  • Points Allowed: 77
  • PS/G: 28 (76th)
  • PA/G: 19.2 (41st)

Inside the Stats - Utah State Aggies

  • Record: 3-1
  • VI Ranking: 75
  • Points Scored: 126
  • Points Allowed: 119
  • PS/G: 31.5 (58th)
  • PA/G: 29.8 (101st)

Key Players to Watch

  • BYU: Tyler Allgeier (80 carries, 351 yards, 4 TD)
  • BYU: Neil Pau'u - WR (18 catches, 232 yards, 4 TD)
  • UTST: Devin Thompkins - WR (29 catches, 514 yards, 3 TD)
  • UTST: Brandon Bowling - WR (20 catches, 326 yards, 3 TD)

Injuries

  • BYU: Keenan Pili - LB (Knee-Out)
  • BYU: Jaren Hall - QB (Ribs-Probable)
  • BYU: Kody Epps - WR (Foot-Questionable)
  • BYU: Max Tooley - LB (Undisclosed-Questionable)
  • BYU: Keenan Ellis - DB (Concussion-Questionable)
  • BYU: Brayden Cosper - WR (Undisclosed-Out)

BYU Cougars vs. Utah State Aggies Betting Conclusion

History tells you to take the OVER here, but the BYU quarterback situation and it's underwhelming ability to find the end zone this season make that play a bit difficult to trust. BYU has gone UNDER the point total in three of its last four games along with six of its last seven overall. If BYU's offense is going to break free though, it would be this game as history supports. The smart odds, however, point UNDER with a large total above 60 points.

BYU has won 15 of its last 19 games SU against Utah State, but Utah State has covered the spread in eight of its last 12 home games when facing BYU. Between the two markets, the point total seems to be a safer play despite a high scoring affair (usually) when these two teams collide.

BYU Cougars vs. Utah State Aggies Betting Trends

  • BYU has seen the point total go UNDER in six of its last seven games.
  • BYU has won four of its last five road games.
  • Utah State has covered the spread in eight of its last 12 home games when facing BYU.
  • Utah State has failed to cover the spread in five of its last seven home games.


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