Marshall Thundering Herd vs. North Texas Mean Green Predictions, Odds, Picks

Oct. 15, 2021

Thom Cunningham
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

A Conference-USA meeting is set for Friday as the Marshall Thundering Herd travel to Denton, Texas to take on the North Texas Mean Green. Kick off is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET and will air on CBSSN from Apogee Stadium.

Score Prediction

Marshall 35, North Texas 24

Best Bet

Under

Marshall Thundering Herd vs. North Texas Mean Green Predictions

The first thing that stands out when looking at this game's odds is the point total, set at a very high 66.5. Feel free to take advantage of that for a few reasons, as it seems oddsmakers are relying heavily on Marshall's explosive offense and North Texas' less than average defense. Marshall averages about 35 points per game, which would make the 66.5 seem fair to consider going OVER. Add that with North Texas allowing 32.2 points per game then it seems justified.

Even if Marshall scores 35 points however, North Texas ironically scores the same amount of points per game as Marshall gives up - which is 22.8. The numbers indicate that North Texas will probably score 24 points in this game, or something close. So unless Marshall scores 42 points or more, don't expect the total to go OVER a high 66.5

Marshall has gone OVER in four of six road games, but North Texas is 1-4 on the O/U this season. The UNDER has actually hit in the last two meetings between these schools, while Marshall has actually gone UNDER the point total in seven straight games when facing a school from Texas. Between the two the UNDER seems to have more conviction in betting. The spread is a bit murky here.

Marshall has seen the underdog cover the spread in five straight games, but North Texas has failed to cover four of five games when playing in Denton. Marshall has covered four of six games when playing on the road, but North Texas has covered two straight games the Thundering Herd. There are crossing trends for a high spread (-11) so the UNDER seems to be better of the two markets. Keep in mind Marshall is also 1-4 on the ATS this season.

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Marshall Thundering Herd vs. North Texas Mean Green Betting Odds

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Marshall Thundering Herd vs. North Texas Mean Green Betting Resources

• Matchup: C-USA
• Date: Friday, October 15, 2021
• Venue: Apogee Stadium
• Location: Denton, Texas
• TV-Time: CBSSN - 7:00 p.m. ET

• Weather Report
• College Football Playoff Betting

Marshall Thundering Herd Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 3-3
• ATS: 2-4
• O/U: 4-2
• ATS - Home: 0-3
• ATS - Away: 2-1

It's been a disappointing season for Marshall, favorites to win the conference before the season started but have since lost three of four games. A win against Old Dominion stopped the bleeding, but one has to wonder just how good this Marshall team actually is? The wins haven't been impressive, despite winning big.

Marshall has beaten Old Dominion, Navy and N.C. Central while losing to ECU, Appalachian State and Middle Tennessee. It seems Marshall's defense shows up against weaker opponents, only allowing 13 points or less to the first three schools mentioned. North Texas would fall into this category in terms of opponent difficulty for Marshall. Middle Tennessee could go either way this season, so it's unclear how to analyze Marshall giving up 34 to the Blue Raiders - time will tell.

This offense is dangerous however, and has the capability to blow the door off of North Texas. The team averages about five touchdown per game, as the focus is always on Rasheen Ali. Ali is a beast, scoring 12 touchdowns already with 11 of them coming from the ground. Quarterback Grant Wells has been inconsistent this season, a bit careless with the football despite tossing for over 2,000 yards already.

The team features five players with over 215 receiving yards already, Corey Gammage over halfway to 1,000 yards on the season despite having no touchdowns. Shadeed Ahmed, Willie Johnson and Talik Keaton all have two touchdowns a piece. This offense can beat you on the ground or through the air, but its ultimately the inconsistency of Wells that has set this team back in big games.

The defense has play makers as well, with Steven Gilmore recording two of the team's five interceptions and Eli Neal a threat on the rush with four sacks and two fumble recoveries. With North Texas' quarterback issues this season, look for Neal to make a big impact on the defensive side of the ball.

North Texas Mean Green Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 1-4
• ATS: 3-2
• O/U: 1-4
• ATS - Home: 1-1
• ATS - Away: 2-1

North Texas will look to both Deandre Torrey and Roderic Burns to carry the offense Friday night. Torrey leads the team in touchdowns with five, while Burns has 30 receptions and over 300 yards receiving. The quarterback play hasn't been terrific, but there was some light at the end of the tunnel last game for Austin Aune who threw four touchdowns against Missouri.

It's a bit surprising to see the defense allow so many points this season, as the takeaways are there. North Texas has three interceptions to go along with four fumble recoveries. Those numbers aren't substantial but it's not bad either. The team also has 10 total sacks, with K.D. Davis has two of those sacks to go along with one of the fumble recoveries - keep an eye on him if the Mean Green defense shows up.

That's a tall task though, giving up the 107th-most points per game and now facing an offense that scores the 33rd-most points per game. North Texas is capable of pulling off an upset due to Marshall's sluggish season so far, while also playing at home on a shortened week. The numbers aren't terrible, but it seems when looking at the data the root of the Mean Green's problems begin at the quarterback position - which saw a glimmer of hope last week. Yes North Texas lost, but they also played an SEC team. It's very possible Aune uses his 300-yard and four touchdown day as motivation to play well on Friday.

The Marshall Thundering Herd have covered the spread in four of their last six road games. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Marshall Thundering Herd

• Record: 3-3
• VI Ranking: 96
• Points Scored: 209
• Points Allowed: 137
• PS/G: 34.8 (33rd)
• PA/G: 22.8 (51st)

Inside the Stats - North Texas Mean Green

• Record: 1-4
• VI Ranking: 120
• Points Scored: 114
• Points Allowed: 161
• PS/G: 22.8 (106th)
• PA/G: 32.3 (107th)

Key Players to Watch

• MAR: Grant Wells - QB (157/242, 2,003 yards, 8 TD, 7 INT)
• MAR: Rasheen Ali - RB (103 carries, 566 yards, 12 Total TDs)
• NOTX: Deandre Torrey - RB (115 carries, 601 yards, 4 TD)
• NOTX: Roderic Burns - WR (30 catches, 363 yards, 2 TD)

Injuries

• MAR: Knowledge Mcdaniel - RB (Legal-Out)
• NOTX: Jyaire Shorter - WR (Undisclosed-Out)
• NOTX: Tommy Bush - WR (Leg-Out)
• NOTX: Oscar Adaway III - RB (Knee-Out)
• NOTX: Ikaika Ragsdale - RB (Undisclosed-Questionable)
• NOTX: Loronzo Thompson - WR (Undisclosed-Questionable)
• NOTX: Deonte Simpson - WR (Dismissed-Out)
• NOTX: Kevin Wood - LB (Undisclosed-Out)
• NOTX: Quinn Whitlock - DB (Undisclosed-Out)

Marshall Thundering Herd vs. North Texas Mean Green Betting Conclusion

I don't mind Marshall here, clearly the better team but the turnovers from Wells worries me. Playing on Friday (short week) and on the road doesn't help, while the Mean Green defense (although giving up points) seems to force takeaways at a manageable rate. Add all that with the recent good play at the QB spot from Aune, there is thought North Texas plays motivated and capitalizes on Wells' hypothetical mistakes to keep the game close.

Marshall has covered four of six on the road however, so the notion that going into Denton will rattle the team should be buried. The shortened week is more worrisome then the venue Marshall is playing in. The UNDER seems to be the smart play for multiple reasons, so between the markets that's the smart play. Again, I won't argue Marshall if the amount of points the North Texas defense gives up worries you.

Marshall Thundering Herd vs. North Texas Mean Green Betting Trends

• Marshall has seen the underdog cover the spread in five straight games.
• Marshall has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games.
• North Texas has gone UNDER in four of its last five games.
• North Texas has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five home games.