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Tulane Green Wave vs. SMU Mustangs Predictions, Odds, Picks

 
Oct. 21, 2021
Stuart Durst
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

ACC action is set for Thursday night as the Tulane Green Wave travel to Dallas, Texas to face the Southern Methodist Mustangs. Kick off is set for 7:30 p.m. ET and will air on ESPN from Gerald J. Ford Stadium.

Score Prediction

SMU 42, Tulane 24

Best Bet

SMU -13.5

Under

Tulane Green Wave vs. SMU Mustangs Predictions

We get some nice Thursday night action with the undefeated SMU Mustangs taking on the struggling Tulane Green Wave. SMU is currently one of three undefeated teams in the nation meanwhile Tulane is 1-5 and has dropped four straight games.

This number does feel a bit suspiciously low. It opened around -13 in most spots and is not comfortably sitting around -13.5/-14 on a majority of sportsbooks. Tulane is in the middle of an extremely tough scheduling patch and it wont get any better. They lost to Ole Miss, Houston, and East Carolina over the last couple weeks and now get the 21st ranked SMU squad and No. 2 Cincinnati next week. They are going to be outmatched on both sides of the ball here.

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Tulane Green Wave vs. SMU Mustangs Betting Odds

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Tulane Green Wave vs. SMU Mustangs Betting Resources

  • Matchup: AAC
  • Date: Thursday, October 21, 2021
  • Venue: Gerald J. Ford Stadium
  • Location: Dallas, Texas
  • TV-Time: ESPN - 7:30 p.m. ET


Tulane Green Wave Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 1-5
  • ATS: 2-4
  • O/U: 5-1
  • ATS - Home: 1-2
  • ATS - Away: 1-2

This number feels rough for Tulane. I talked about it in last week's article where we took Houston and again today, but that schedule is brutal. They just faced a Houston team that has really struggled to get the ball rolling on offense, and still allowed 40 points last week. The offense looks solid but there are a lot of holes on defense this year.

Quarterback Michael Pratt went 20/30 with 214 yards through the air and 2 TDs. He had a quarterback rating of 148.6 and finished without any turnovers. While he was one of the lone bright spots for the offense, we can't say the same about the ground game. Tulane attempted 38 different rushes during the game but only ended up with 2.5 yards per carry, a very unimpressive number.

My biggest worry is on the SMU side, they may not need to try particularly hard to win this game but still need to cover double digits. Tulane is a team I expected more from at the start of the season but have not impressed so far. Going to be a tough stretch for them.

SMU Mustangs Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 6-0
  • ATS: 4-2
  • O/U: 2-4
  • ATS - Home: 3-0
  • ATS - Away: 1-2

As you can probably already see by their undefeated record, SMU is one of the best teams in the country. SMU is currently ranked 14th in the country in passing offense and has an extremely explosive offense. They were in an unfortunate situation last week losing at halftime against Navy, but rallied back and ended up winning by seven.

SMU hasnt just played a cakewalk schedule either. They took care of business in weeks one and two against lesser opponents but then proceeded to take down both TCU and LA Tech in back to back weeks. Last week beating Navy in comeback fashion was impressive and I think they definitely care of business against a struggling Tulane team.

Tanner Mordecai has been one of my favorite DFS/Props targets this season. He's thrown for 1,893 yards, 26 touchdowns and seven interceptions on 71% passing. He's been very good this season and Tulane has allowed 40+ points in three of their last four games. SMU is 1-0-1 against the spread this season as 14 point favorites or more and I expect them to continue rolling on Thursday night.


The SMU Mustangs have covered the spread in six straight home games when facing a non-AP-ranked school. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Tulane Green Wave

  • Record: 1-5
  • VI Ranking: 104
  • Points Scored: 197
  • Points Allowed: 241
  • PS/G: 32.8 (37th)
  • PA/G: 40.2 (127th)

Inside the Stats - SMU Mustangs

  • Record: 6-0
  • VI Ranking: 18
  • Points Scored: 244
  • Points Allowed: 133
  • PS/G: 40.7 (10th)
  • PA/G: 22.2 (47th)

Key Players to Watch

  • TULA: Michael Pratt (115/191, 1,373 yards, 13 TD, 5 INT)
  • TULA: Cameron Carroll (55 carries, 407 total yards, 4 Total TD)
  • SMU: Tanner Mordecai - QB (157/221, 1,893 yards, 26 TD, 7 INT)
  • SMU: Rashee Rice - WR (30 catches, 375 yards, 6 TD)

Injuries

  • SMU: Ulysses Bentley IV - RB (Undisclosed-Probable)
  • SMU: T.J. McDaniel - RB (Leg-Questionable)
  • TULA: Devin Brunfield - RB (Left Team-Out)

Tulane Green Wave vs. SMU Mustangs Betting Conclusion

SMU at -13.5 is the best bet on the board for this game. -14 is available in a couple spots and will probably be the closing number. I think they cover 14, but there is definitely added push potential. I considered the under and don't think its a bad play either, as 70 is an incredibly high number and I have a hard time thinking they get there.

Tulane Green Wave vs. SMU Mustangs Betting Trends

  • SMU has covered the spread in three straight home games.
  • Tulane has gone OVER the point total in six straight road games when playing in October.
  • SMU has won 12 of its last 13 games.
  • SMU has gone UNDER the point total in four of its last six games.

  
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