Michigan State Spartans vs. Purdue Boilermakers Predictions, Odds, Picks

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

Nov. 6, 2021

Eytan Shander
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

There isn’t a team in the nation that suffers more disrespect when it comes to lines than the Spartans. The third ranked Michigan State Spartans are a short 3-point favorite at 5-3 Purdue. The two teams kick off 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday afternoon on ABC.

Score Prediction

Michigan State 28, Purdue 17

Best Bet

Michigan State -3

Under

Michigan State Spartans vs. Purdue Boilermakers Predictions

Don’t overthink this one, Kenneth Walker is the best running back in the country. Michigan State doesn’t do much else besides wear you down with a healthy dose of Walker. It worked against Michigan and seven other teams before the Wolverines. Despite how sloppy it looks on defense, Sparty still comes up with big plays at the right time.

Again, it’s not even like they dropped a game where Purdue can take advantage. While Purdue may appreciate the pacing and lower scoring tempo that MSU plays to, the Spartans aren’t giving up many points – which will be the backbreaker for the Boilermakers.

Purdue has a shot to keep this close, but they lack explosiveness in their offense. It’s their ultimate undoing in this game no matter how tight it may be throughout the game. Purdue has the advantage in penalties – one of the least flagged teams in the nation. They have a swarming defense and limit get offenses off the field on third down.

They even hold on to the football like the Spartans. The problem is overcoming any deficit – especially if it gets double-digits. The passing game isn’t good enough to beat MSU’s defense nor stop an aggressive pass-rush. The under looks like another great play as Purdue has yet to hit a total above 52 points.

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Michigan State Spartans vs. Purdue Boilermakers Betting Odds

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Michigan State Spartans vs. Purdue Boilermakers Betting Resources

Matchup: Big 10
Date: Saturday, November 6, 2021
Venue: Ross-Ade Stadium
Location: West Lafayette, Indiana
TV-Time: ABC - 3:30 p.m. ET

Michigan State Spartans Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 8-0
ATS: 6-1-1
O/U: 4-4
ATS - Home: 2-1-1
ATS - Away: 4-0

Kenneth Walker is the offense. He’s Michigan State. Walker has rushed for 1194 yards and 14 TDs including a 94-yard run. Payton Thorne has thrown for 1897 yards, and 15 TDs to 6 INTs. He’s also rushed for two scores.

Jayden Reed leads the team in receiving yards with 642, he’s at 5 TDs on the year. Jalen Nailor is the other leading receiver with 587 yards and 6 TDs. Walker also has one receiving TD on the year. The offense is ranked 42nd in the country, 56th on the ground and 79th in the air. The Spartans defense is 157th overall – 71st against the run and 214th against the pass.

Purdue Boilermakers Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 5-3
ATS: 4-4
O/U: 1-7
ATS - Home: 1-3
ATS - Away: 3-1

Aidan O’Connell and Jack Plummer have rotated due to injury and circumstance this year, combining for all but 44 of the 2005 total passing yards. O’Connell has thrown 8 INT to Plummer’s 0 picks. King Doerue is the team’s leading rusher – in only 7 games played – with 363 yards, but only one score. Zander Horvath has 2 scores on the ground, as Purdue only has 3 rushing TDs on the season.

David Bell makes the offense click in the air, one of the better big- play WRs in the country. Bell is at 786 yards with an average 14.8 YPC and 4 TDs. TE Payne Durham also has 4 receiving TDs. Both Milton Wright and TJ Sheffield each have three scores in the air. Purdue’s defense is ranked 37th – 66th on the ground and 54 h in the air.

The Michigan State Spartans have won four straight games when facing the Purdue Boilermakers. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Michigan State Spartans

Record: 8-0
VI Ranking: 3
Points Scored: 277
Points Allowed: 164
PS/G: 34.6 (30th)
PA/G: 20.5 (29th)

Inside the Stats - Purdue Boilermakers

Record: 5-3
VI Ranking: 57
Points Scored: 183
Points Allowed: 137
PS/G: 22.9 (103rd)
PA/G: 17.1 (11th)

Key Players to Watch

MSU: Kenneth Walker III - RB (175 carries, 1,194 yards, 14 TD)
MSU: Payton Thorne - QB (131/213, 1,897 yards, 15 TD, 6 INT)
PUR: David Bell - WR (53 catches, 786 yards, 4 TD)

Michigan State Spartans vs. Purdue Boilermakers Betting Conclusion

The easiest path to making money would be taking the under. Both teams love holding on to the football and Purdue’s defense is good enough to limit huge plays from Walker. The total at 54 is just too high, especially because Sparty will gladly play a ball-control style offense with Walker wearing down Purdue’s legit run defense.

David Bell has a chance to be the biggest x-factor leading to the upset, but neither team is going to light up the scoreboard. There’s super low average of under 38 PPG scored at Purdue – this is what both teams want.

Michigan State Spartans vs. Purdue Boilermakers Betting Trends

Purdue has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight games when playing as the favorite.
Purdue has gone UNDER the point total in eight of its last nine games.
Purdue has covered the spread in three of its last four games when facing Michigan State.
The point total has gone UNDER in three of the last four meetings.