Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Predictions, Odds, Picks

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

6 minute read

Nov. 20, 2021

Dan Dobish
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

The Arkansas Razorbacks (7-3, 3-3) travel to meet the Alabama Crimson Tide (9-1, 5-1) on Saturday at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Ala. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on CBS.

Score Prediction

Alabama 41, Arkansas 20

Best Bet

Alabama -20.5 (-110)

Over 58.5 (-110)

Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Predictions

Arkansas has had a successful campaign, and not many people figured it would be ranked in mid-November heading to Alabama. The Razorbacks showed a lot of character last week at LSU, winning 16-13 in overtime despite the fact they didn't exactly bring their 'A' game to Baton Rouge. That's three consecutive victories in a row for Arkansas, although it is 0-3-1 ATS across the past four games overall.

Alabama had the annual SEC cupcake game last week, tuning up New Mexico State by a 59-3 score, covering a huge number in the process. This week it's back to the grind of the SEC West before an Iron Bowl showdown with improving Auburn. It's all on the table and in front of the Crimson Tide for another run to the College Football Playoff despite a loss to Texas A&M last month. It's almost as if the loss never happened. Well, that's not necessarily true. Because another loss would mean lights out for the Crimson Tide, and that likely also includes the SEC Championship Game, should they qualify.

The loss to A&M served as a wake-up call for the Tide. Since that game Alabama has rattled off 49, 52, 20 and 59, going 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS. The defense has buckled down, too, and that might be the most impressive thing. Like usual, the Tide had a lot of big shoes to fill due to graduation, the NFL Draft, etc. The defense was a little shaky at first, as they were learning to jell. Since the A&M loss, the Tide have allowed 9, 24, 14 and 3, rounding into peak form at just the right time.

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Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Odds

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Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Resources

Matchup: SEC
Date: Saturday, November 20, 2021
Venue: Bryant-Denny Stadium
Location: Tuscaloosa, Alabama
TV-Time: CBS - 3:30 p.m. ET

Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 7-3
ATS: 5-4-1
O/U: 6-4
ATS - Home: 4-3
ATS - Away: 1-1-1

Arkansas is on an 0-3-1 ATS skid in the past four games since its most recent cover Oct. 9 at Ole Miss. After opening the season 4-0 SU/ATS, the Razorbacks are just 1-4-1 ATS across the past six outings. The defense has been batter lately after getting knocked around in the month of October, the Razorbacks have allowed 3, 28 and 13. Of course, facing Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Mississippi State and LSU is nowhere near the same thing as facing Alabama.

The Razorbacks are 1-3-1 ATS in the past five conference games, while going 0-3-1 ATS in the past four games in the month of November. Arkansas hasn't followed success with much success, either, going 5-17-1 ATS in the past 23 games following a straight-up win. On the good side, Arkansas is 12-4 ATS in the past 16 games as an underdog, while going 6-2-1 ATS in the past nine games on the road.

As far as the total is concerned, Arkansas has cashed the OVER in five of the past seven road games, while going 7-3 in the past 10 contests against a team with a winning record. However, the UNDER has connected in five of its past seven against Alabama.

Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 9-1
ATS: 6-4
O/U: 5-5
ATS - Home: 4-2
ATS - Away: 2-2

The Crimson Tide are favored by 20.5 points heading into this one. Alabama is 3-1 ATS in the past four as a favorite of 17 or more points. Overall, the Tide has covered three of the past four games overall, and it's been all about the offense. It has 59, 20, 52, 49, 38, 42, 63, 31, 48 and 44 points on offense this season. It's surprising that the OVER isn't much than 5-5, but that's because the defense has been good, and getting better.

Alabama has posted 484.7 total yards per game to rank 10th in the country, it has 322.6 passing yards per game to rank 11th, and Bama is third in the country with 44.6 PPG. If it has a weakness, it's in the run game, with 'just' 162.1 rushing yards per game to rank 68th. Defensively, they have allowed 288.3 yards per game to rank fourth, while allowing just 18.2 PPG.

The Crimson Tide is 12-3 ATS in the past 15 games at Bryant-Denny Stadium, while going 10-4 ATS in the past 14 league games. The Tide is also 5-2 ATS in the past seven games overall.

Alabama has won 14 consecutive times vs. Arkansas dating back to 2006. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Arkansas Razorbacks

Record: 7-3
VI Ranking: 17
Points Scored: 309
Points Allowed: 229
PS/G: 30.9
PA/G: 22.9

Inside the Stats - Alabama Crimson Tide

Record: 9-1
VI Ranking: 3
Points Scored: 446
Points Allowed: 182
PS/G: 44.6
PA/G: 18.2

Key Players to Watch

ARK: K.J. Jefferson - QB (147/226, 1,990 yards, 22 total TDs, 3 INT)
ARK: Treylon Burks - WR (52 catches, 815 yards, 8 TD)
BAMA: Bryce Young - QB (232/327, 3,025 yards, 33 TD, 3 INT)
BAMA: Jameson Williams - WR (51 catches, 1,028 yards, 10 TD)

Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Conclusion

Texas A&M upset Alabama last month. We generally don't see Alabama lose twice in a season, including the conference championship, CFP, etc. Don't expect to see it here, especially against Arkansas. The Razorbacks are a good team, but they're not a great team, and they're no threat to derail the season of the Crimson Tide, especially in Tuscaloosa on Senior Day.

This one might be close - for a quarter. It's going to get away from the Razorbacks in a hurry, and don't be surprised to see a lopsided score as early as the third quarter. Burks and company will manage to put up some decent offensive numbers, which is something we haven't seen very much against the Crimson Tide this season. But the only victory Arkansas is going to get in this one is a moral victory, and that's not worth much.