Oklahoma Sooners vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys Predictions, Odds, Picks

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

Nov. 27, 2021

Jonathan Willis
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

The Bedlam battle is set for Saturday night as the Oklahoma State Cowboys hosts the Oklahoma Sooners in a huge Big 12 game with College Football Playoff implications on the line. Kick off is set for 7:30 p.m. ET and will air on ABC from Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, Oklahoma.

Score Prediction

Oklahoma State 30, Oklahoma 24

Best Bets

Oklahoma State -4

Over 49.5

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys Predictions

Bedlam is not usually a competitive game. The Oklahoma Sooners typically dominate the Oklahoma State Cowboys, but there is reason for the Cowboys to believe that they have the upper hand this year. Oklahoma State has been the best team in the Big 12 this year, and the Cowboys are favored over the Sooners for a reason on Saturday night in Stillwater.

Oklahoma is 90-18-7 against Oklahoma State over the course of this rivalry, but the Cowboys have a very good chance of knocking off the Sooners for the first time since 2014. This is the best defense that Mike Gundy has had since taking over Oklahoma State, and that has made the Cowboys the team to beat in the Big 12.

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Oklahoma Sooners vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys Betting Resources

Matchup: Big 12
Date: Saturday, November 27, 2021
Venue: Boone Pickens Stadium
Location: Stillwater, Oklahoma
TV-Time: ABC, 7:30 p.m. ET

Oklahoma Sooners Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 10-1
ATS: 5-6
O/U: 6-5
ATS - Home: 4-3
ATS - Away: 1-3

Caleb Williams has been the starter for Oklahoma since the Red River Rivalry. Williams led the Sooners to a come from behind win, and he hasn’t been as mistake prone as Spencer Rattler. Williams is averaging 9.8 YPA with 15 touchdowns and four interceptions, but he has thrown three interceptions in the last two weeks.

This ground game is in good hands with Kennedy Brooks running alongside Williams. Brooks is 28 yards shy of the 1,000-yard plateau on the season, and he is averaging 6.0 YPC with 10 touchdowns. Williams has run for 372 yards and six touchdowns while averaging 7.0 YPC for the Sooners.

The top receiver on the team is Marvin Mims. He is averaging 22.2 YPR to be the leading receiver on Oklahoma although he ranks fourth on the team in receptions. Jason Haselwood, Michael Woods II, and Mario Williams all have more receptions, but they haven’t been nearly as explosive in the passing game.

Oklahoma is allowing 3.8 YPC and 129.2 YPG on the ground. The Sooners rank 56th in Defensive SP+ though, as Alex Grinch hasn’t been as impactful on this side of the ball. This secondary is allowing 8.2 YPA and 276 YPG, ranking outside the top 100 in both measures.

Oklahoma State Cowboys Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 10-1
ATS: 9-2
O/U: 4-7
ATS - Home: 4-2
ATS - Away: 5-0

Spencer Sanders was expected to take a big step forward under Gundy this season. Gundy is one of the best offensive minds in college football, but Sanders is playing a little worse than he did in 2019 or 2020. He is completing just over 60% of his passes, and he is averaging just 7.6 YPA after averaging over 8.0 YPA in 2019 and 2020.

Sanders is a solid runner, averaging 4.2 YPC. That has helped the Oklahoma State offense with Chuba Hubbard now in the NFL. Jaylen Warren has had a fine season in Stillwater in place of Hubbard, running for 1,078 yards (4.9 YPC) and 10 touchdowns on the year.

Tay Martin is the leading receiver on the Cowboys with 54 receptions for 765 yards and six touchdowns. Brennan Presley has 35 catches for 422 yards and five scores, but no one else on Oklahoma State has more than 16 receptions this season.

The Cowboys defense has been exceptional. Oklahoma State ranks sixth in defensive SP+, and they are allowing just 2.5 YPC. This defense ranks second in scoring defense (14.8 PPG) and third in total defense (253.8 YPG).

Oklahoma State has covered the spread in nine of its last 11 games. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Oklahoma Sooners

Record: 10-1
VI Ranking: 8
Points Scored: 428
Points Allowed: 266
PS/G: 38.9 (10th)
PA/G: 24.2 (52nd)

Inside the Stats - Oklahoma State Cowboys

Record: 10-1
VI Ranking: 5
Points Scored: 345
Points Allowed: 164
PS/G: 31.4 (46th)
PA/G: 14.9 (2nd)

Key Players to Watch

OU: Caleb Williams - QB (96/146, 1,422 yards, 15 TD, 4 INT)
OU: Kennedy Brooks - RB (161 carries, 968 yards, 10 TD)
OKST: Spencer Sanders - QB (159/265, 1,997 yards, 20 Total TDs, 6 INT)
OKST: Jaylen Warren - RB (220 carries, 1,078 yards, 10 TD)

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys Betting Conclusion

It’s not often that Oklahoma State has had the upper hand in this game, but that is the case in 2021. The Cowboys have a much better defense and an offense that can keep base, and that will make Oklahoma State the best team in the state.