Utah State Aggies vs. San Diego State Aztecs Picks, Predictions, Odds

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

Dec. 4, 2021

Jonathan Willis
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

The Mountain West Championship game sees the Utah State Aggies look to upset the San Diego State Aztecs. Kick off is set for 3:00 p.m. ET and will air on FOX from the Dignity Health Sports Park in Carson, California.

Score Prediction

San Diego State 27, Utah State 17

Best Bets

San Diego State -5.5 at WynnBet

Under 50.5 at South Point

Utah State Aggies vs. San Diego State Aztecs Predictions

Polar opposites will clash in the Mountain West Championship Game when the San Diego State Aztecs face the Utah State Aggies this weekend. San Diego State relies on its defense and the best punter in the nation under Brady Hoke, while Utah State head coach Blake Anderson has brought his high-flying offense to Logan after seven years at Arkansas State.

Defense will be the key for San Diego State in this game. The Aztecs haven’t won the Mountain West Championship since 2016, while Utah State is looking to win its first MWC title. The Aggies have consistently struggled against the best teams in the conference and were hammered by Boise State and Wyoming, so San Diego State should win by double digits or more on Saturday.

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Utah State Aggies vs. San Diego State Aztecs Betting Odds

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Utah State Aggies vs. San Diego State Aztecs Betting Resources

Matchup: Mountain West Championship
Date: Saturday, December 4, 2021
Venue: Dignity Health Sports Park
Location: Carson, California
TV-Time: FOX, 3:00 p.m. ET

Utah State Aggies Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 9-3
ATS: 8-4
O/U: 5-7

Logan Bonner came to Utah State with Anderson. He has had issues with his accuracy at times, but Bonner is completing 60.3% of his passes for 8.6 YPA with 32 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Bonner isn’t a mobile threat, so you can’t expect him to take off and run like other quarterbacks.

Fellow Arkansas State transfer Brandon Bowling has 44 receptions for 630 yards and seven touchdowns, but Bonner has found two other receivers to target as well. Derek Wright has 39 catches for 699 yards and 10 touchdowns, and Deven Thompkins is one of the top receivers in the country with 87 receptions for 1,543 yards and nine touchdowns.

Utah State is averaging just 3.7 YPC on the ground. Calvin Tyler Jr. is averaging 4.7 YPC, and Elelyon Noa is averaging 4.4 YPC, but they are unlikely to have success against San Diego State’s front seven.

The Aggies rank 95th in Defensive SP+. Utah State has had a hard time stopping the run, allowing 4.6 YPC and 172.8 YPG. They rank in the middle of the pack when it comes to havoc stats too, so this defense doesn’t get off the field with ease.

San Diego State Aztecs Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 11-1
ATS: 6-5-1
O/U: 5-7

We don’t know who will be starting at quarterback for San Diego State in this game. Jordon Brookshire performed better than Lucas Johnson against Boise State last week, but Brookshire is only completing 51.5% of his passes. The Aztecs are outside the top 100 in passing offense, averaging 6.4 YPA and 156.5 YPG.

Greg Bell should surpass 1,000 rushing yards for the season in this game. He is averaging 4.4 YPC, but no one else on San Diego State has more than 275 rushing yards.

San Diego State has one receiver to worry about in the passing game. Jesse Matthews has 39 receptions for 400 yards and six touchdowns, and he is responsible for half of the Aztecs’ receiving touchdowns.

The Aztecs are allowing 2.7 YPC and 84.5 YPG on the ground. They rank in the top five in both categories, and this is a pretty good pass defense too as San Diego State allows just 6.1 YPA.

Matt Araiza is the best punter in the country. Araiza is averaging 51.5 yards per punt on 73 punts, leading the nation in that category. He has the chance to set the NCAA single season record too, and he is a crucial part of SDSU’s team.

San Diego State has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Utah State Aggies

Record: 9-3
VI Ranking: 70
Points Scored: 386
Points Allowed: 316
PS/G: 32.2 (38th)
PA/G: 26.3 (68th)

Inside the Stats - San Diego State Aztecs

Record: 11-1
VI Ranking: 21
Points Scored: 332
Points Allowed: 207
PS/G: 27.7 (72nd)
PA/G: 17.2 (10th)

Key Players to Watch

UTST: Logan Bonner - QB (228/378, 3,236 yards, 32 TD, 10 INT)
UTST: Deven Thompkins - WR (87 catches, 1,543 yards, 9 TD)
SDST: Greg Bell - RB (210 carries, 947 yards, 8 TD)
SDST: Jesse Mattthews - WR (39 catches, 400 yards, 6 TD)

Utah State Aggies vs. San Diego State Aztecs Betting Conclusion

This game will be played to San Diego State’s liking. The Aztecs will control time of possession and establish the run with Araiza booting them out of trouble when the offense stalls. Utah State won’t be able to flip the field and will falter on Saturday.

Utah State Aggies vs. San Diego State Aztecs Betting Trends

San Diego State has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games.
San Diego State has covered the soread in four straight games when facing a school from Utah.
San Diego State has gone UNDER the point total in four of its last five games when playing in California.
The point total has gone OVER in three of the last four meetings.
The favorite has covered the spread in three straight meetings.