Last Updated Nov 12, 2022, 4:35 PM

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Ole Miss Rebels Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Alabama Crimson Tide are hoping to keep their fleeting College Football Playoff hopes alive this week when they face the Ole Miss Rebels. Alabama can't afford another loss with a record of 7-2, and the Crimson Tide need help in order to get to the SEC Championship Game. These teams will face off at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Mississippi on Saturday, November 12, at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Ole Miss Rebels Betting Prediction

After beating Alabama in consecutive years in 2014 and 2015, Ole Miss has lost six straight to the Crimson Tide. None of their last five meetings have been particularly close either with the Rebels losing each of those games by at least 15 points. Nick Saban has repeatedly gotten the better of his former assistants during his long tenure in Tuscaloosa, but Lane Kiffin coaches the kind of offense that has given the Crimson Tide fits in the recent past. That could lead to a potential upset and Saban's worst season at Alabama since his first year in 2007.

Score Prediction: Alabama 44, Ole Miss 24
Best Bet: Alabama -12

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Ole Miss Rebels Betting Odds

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Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Ole Miss Rebels Betting Resources

Date: Saturday, November 12, 2022
Matchup: SEC
Venue: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Location: Oxford, Mississippi
Time-TV: CBS, 3:30 p.m. ET
Expert Picks

Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Analysis

It appears that Alabama will miss out on the College Football Playoff for just the second time. The Crimson Tide lost close games on the road against Tennessee and LSU, and they now need the Tigers to lose two of their last three games in order to win the SEC West. They came close to losing to both Texas and Texas A&M too, as this is not your typical dominant Crimson Tide squad.

Reigning Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young has looked like the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Young has been excellent even though he doesn't have great receivers this season, completing 62.9% of his passes for 2,234 yards (8.2 YPA) with 19 touchdowns and four interceptions. Ja'Corey Brooks (16.9 YPR) and Jermaine Burton (14.8 YPR) have been the big play threats, while Kobe Prentice is the underneath receiver.

Georgia Tech transfer Jahmyr Gibbs has been excellent for Alabama this season. Gibbs has run for 771 yards and six touchdowns, and he is averaging 6.8 YPC. He has also been more of a pass catching threat than anyone figured he would be, as he has 39 receptions for 365 yards and three touchdowns.

Alabama's defense is ranked 9th in Defensive SP+. The Crimson Tide are allowing 18.3 PPG and 303.6 YPG, and the run defense has been excellent. Linebacker Will Anderson Jr. leads the team with seven sacks, and Henry To'o To'o has been a sure tackler in the middle of the defense. Kool-Aid McKinstry has 12 passes defensed, but we haven't seen the Crimson Tide force turnovers like they have in previous years. They have just three interceptions and three fumble recoveries, so Alabama ranks 126th nationally in takeovers.

Alabama is 7-1 SU in their last eight road games against Ole Miss. (Getty)

Ole Miss Rebels Betting Analysis

This was expected to be a rebuilding year for Ole Miss, but the Rebels have outperformed all expectations to get to 8-1. Their only loss was on the road against LSU, and they already knocked off Kentucky, Auburn, and Texas A&M. That has led to rumors of Lane Kiffin perhaps moving on to Auburn, as he has now proven he can win in the competitive SEC West.

USC transfer Jaxson Dart has performed well in this offense, completing 61.1% of his passes for 8.8 YPA with 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Jonathan Mingo is the top target and is averaging 22.1 YPR, but the Rebels don't throw nearly as much as they did with Matt Corral under center, as Kiffin has adapted his offense to better fit his personnel.

Quinshon Judkins is one of the top running backs in the SEC, running for 1,036 yards and 13 touchdowns while averaging 5.8 YPC. Judkins ran for 205 yards and a touchdown two weeks ago against Texas A&M, and he has run for over 100 yards in five of his last six games. Zach Evans has done an excellent job as the second running back in this system, picking up 680 yards and seven touchdowns while averaging 6.3 YPC. Dart is a dangerous runner too, averaging more than 6.0 YPC once you account for sacks.

The Rebels have been much better on defense than they have been in the recent past. They rank 31st in Defensive SP+, and they do a good job of getting to the quarterback with 25 sacks on the season. Safety A.J. Finley is someone to watch for Ole Miss.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Ole Miss Rebels Betting Trends

  • Alabama is 15-3 SU in their last 18 games.
  • Alabama is 6-0 SU in their last six games against Ole Miss.
  • Ole Miss is 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of Mississippi's last five games.
  • Ole Miss is 8-1 SU in their last nine games.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of Mississippi's last seven games against Alabama.
  • Ole Miss is 14-0 SU in their last 14 home games.
  • Alabama is 16-4 SU in their last 20 road games.
  • Alabama is 7-1 SU in their last eight road games against Mississippi.
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