Last Updated Feb 02, 2023, 8:30 PM

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Picks, Odds and Predictions

It's Week Four in California for the PGA Tour this week, as the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am takes center stage after Max Homa took down the American Express last week at +2200 betting odds.

Golf Betting Resources
2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am

No real secrets about a Tour stop at Pebble Beach, although this event does see the Spyglass Hill and Monterey course used for one round early too. It's all about the wind at this venue though, as if it's down guys are just worried about hitting their spots.

If it's up, it's about worrying about where your ball is going to land on each stroke and remembering that Par is always going to be a good score.

We have one last week of a rotating course schedule here at Pebble Beach, and it always confused me a bit that this is one of the pro-am stops where you mix in other courses because why would you need the extra courses when you could play all four rounds at beautiful Pebble Beach instead?

Anyways, Spyglass Hill and Monterey are the other two courses in the rotation this week, and players will play the 3 courses through Saturday before the top-60 and ties advance to the final day at Pebble.

All three courses play under 7,100 yards, and all deal with coastal winds and in Jordan Spieth's case, terrifying cliff looks that if you're not careful on, your ball will be lost forever at.

As is keeping with the trend, Pebble is the lone course in the rotation that will have ShotLink equipped, so we don't have a ton of Strokes Gained data to go off this week as well.

What we do know about Pebble, makes it a complicated track despite its shorter length at just over 6,800 yards: extremely small greens, short, tight fairways, and angular hole setups that force players into layups that complicate things for longer drivers. This is a pure second-shot course, and it'll show in the scoring this week.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am
Betting Odds

There's been a mixed group of odds from players that won this event, with just as many longshots like Nick Taylor, Vaughan Taylor, and Ted Potter winning at numbers higher than 100-1 as players like Phil Mickelson, Jordan Spieth, and Daniel Berger who all won at much shorter odds.

Course history is decently important at this stop, as the courses offer their own notable quirks that make life difficult - particularly coastal winds that can make life difficult on the players.

The top 10 players here this week in terms of total strokes gained at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am after Spieth are: Kevin Streelman, Maverick McNealy, Nick Taylor, Jimmy Walker, Nate Lashley, Matt Kuchar, Justin Rose, Matthew NeSmith, and Scott Stallings.

The dueling Saudi International is seeing more of a spread of top-tier golfers this week than Pebble Beach, so the field is not as strong as in past years. It is headlined by Spieth, Viktor Hovland, and Matt Fitzpatrick at the top and they represent the lone top-15 golfers in the field, and there are only 10 golfers in the top-50 of the OWGR at all.

Let's take a look at this week's contenders and see if we can pick the winner that will triumph this week!

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am Contenders

  • Jordan Spieth +1100
  • Matt Fitzpatrick +1100
  • Viktor Hovland +1200
  • Maverick McNealy +2000
  • Seamus Power +2500
  • Tom Hoge +2500
  • Andrew Putnam +3000
  • More Golfers
  • (Odds Subject to Change)
Jordan Spieth looks to capitalize on his dominance here (Getty Images)

Contender to Back
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am

Seamus Power +2500

This feels like it will be a trendy pick this week because it feels like Power should have won this event last year. He raced out to a big lead after the first two days while setting the 36-hole scoring record, beating up on the harder Pebble Beach and Spyglass courses, but then approached the much easier Monterey on Saturday afternoon and just had a meltdown of a round, shooting +3 and putting himself on the fringe of contention for Sunday.

Power's game fits nicely into this course setup, as he ranks first in the field of total strokes gained on courses under 7,200 yards, which will be a key factor this week. His strong around-the-green game will suit him for Pebble Beach, as he will need it due to the smallness of the greens there necessitating good scrambling play when needed.

Mid-Range Value
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am

Alex Smalley +5000

Smalley might be my favorite pick this week, as he came out 7th in my model when I inputted the stats I was looking at. The most glaring of those stats? Smalley ranking first in the field in Greens in Regulation gained, a stat I view almost as the most important by far this week. Playing through the tough weather conditions of these courses that have been battered by rain will be key, and Smalley is a magician with his irons.

Smalley did not make the cut here in his first appearance last season, but has become a much better golf since that point, with two T5's already this season and also 4 top-10 finishes last season after Pebble. He is a very strong approach player who is not long off the tee but makes up for it with pinpoint accuracy and strong numbers in the important proximity buckets.

Long Shot Pick
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am

Ben Taylor +12500

Taylor is a wildcard on this list, but he's having himself a strong year with two finishes of T4 or better so far this season. He surprisingly came out first in my model this week behind excellent showings in the heavily-weighted GIRs Gained as well as Good Drives Gained and is also a solid iron player as well as putter. All of these skills will definitely be put to the test as he searches for his first professional victory.

Top 20 Finish
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am

Denny McCarthy +188

McCarthy is one of those guys who can be hit or miss at courses like these, but he finished T12 here last year and can navigate his way around these courses just fine. He doesn't rank out extremely high in the model, but he hits a niche because we've been talking about these coastal winds that will swirl your ball up and around and Denny ranks in the top-10 of this field in strokes gained across short, coastal, and windy courses.

Denny is also a very solid short par 4 player, which will come in handy this week as 40% of the holes range from 350-450 yards long. McCarthy might not be able to get you all the way to the winner's circle, but he is a reliable golfer who can cash his way into the top-20 with a solid driving week.

How to Bet on Golf

Golf betting has gained much more exposure and interest in the past few years, and with plenty of plus-money prices littered throughout the various forms of golf wagers, the chance for bigger scores is part of the reason behind that increased popularity.

2023 Golf Betting Schedule

Sportsbooks ensure that there are no shortage of wagering options on golf tournaments every week, and it isn't all about picking the winner. Grabbing the outright winner of a golf tournament is the best way to get that 'big score' but it's also the hardest wager to cash. After all, a typical professional golf tournament has a field of 140+ different players to consider.

Understanding Golf Odds and Bets

Most golf odds are listed in the fractional format – 10/1 on Dustin Johnson for example – and in that particular case you would multiply the amount bet by that first number to project your winnings. So a $100 bet on DJ to win that particular event would win you $1000.

If you are more comfortable with the American version of odds listings that you typically see across the other major North American sports – ie +1000 – these numbers are easily convertible. Online and app based books may already have that option built in, but the easiest way to do it yourself is to add two zeros to the first number in the fraction. So a 10/1 price on DJ converts to +1000 in that format.

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