QBE Shootout Picks, Predictions, Odds

Kevin Rogers Sports Betting Expert

7 minute read

Dec. 9, 2021

Dan Dobish
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

This week features the QBE Shootout at the Tiburon Golf Course at the Ritz-Carlton Golf Resort in Naples, Fla., playing for a purse of $3.6 million. This is a team event, and the winners will not receive 500 FedEx Cup points in the standings. We have a total of 24 golfers in the field, or 12 total teams competing for the overall prize.

This 3-day, 54-hole stroke play event has kept the same format since 2014. Harris English and Matt Kuchar posted an event-record 179/37-Under to win by nine strokes over Rory Sabbatini and Kevin Tway in last season’s event.

The Tiburon Golf Course plays at 7,288 yards, or 6,664 meters for our metric friends, at Par 72 on the gold course. And like most course in the tropics, we get Bermuda grass putting surfaces, similar to last week’s Hero World Challenge, the RSM Classic, the Bermuda Championship, Mayakoba, etc.

Golf Betting Resources
2021 QBE Shootout

• Date: Friday Dec. 10 - Sunday Dec. 12, 2021
• Venue: Tiburon Golf Club - Gold Course
• Location: Naples, Florida
• Par-Yardage: 72, 7,288 yards
• Defending Champion: Harris English-Matt Kuchar (2020)
• TV: NBC, Golf Channel
• Vegas Expert Picks
• Betting Odds

For this specific event, it’s a shortened field of just 24 total golfers or 12 teams, so there aren’t a lot of props. There are some interesting values, however.

Harris English and Matt Kuchar look to defend their QBE Shootout trophy with odds at +600 ro repeat. (AP)

First off, you have to love history, and what a duo has been able to accomplish, rather than two golfers feeling each other out for the first time.

2021 QBE Shootout Betting Odds

According to BetMGM, three golf teams have winning odds at or under +700, with Sam Burns/Billy Horschel (+400) the chalk, followed closely by Jason Kokrak/Kevin Na (+550) and Harris English/Matt Kuchar (+650), the defending champs. Jason Day/Marc Leishman (+750), Max Homa/Kevin Kisner (+800) are the next groups, with Corey Conners/Graeme McDowell, Matt Jones/Ryan Palmer and Ian Poulter/Charles Howell III (+1100) in the next betting group.

Brian Harman/Hudson Swafford (+1200) and Sean O’Hair/Will Zalatoris (+1200) are in the next group, with K.H. Lee/Brandt Snedeker (+1400) and Lexi Thompson/Bubba Watson (+3300) rounding things out.

2021 QBE Shootout Contenders

• Burns-Horschel +450
• Kokrak-Na +550
• English-Kuchar +600
• Homa-Kisner +700
• Day-Leishman +800
• More Golfers
• (Odds Subject to Change)

2021 QBE Shootout Golfers to Avoid

Ryan Palmer paired with Harold Varner III last season, and now he gets Matt Jones. Those new partner pairings are not terribly attractive from a betting perspective. Palmer and HV3 ended up finishing in 10th place, 15 strokes off the pace, although they did get one of those big Happy Gilmore checks for $90,000 each, which will buy a lot of sub sandwiches.

Marc Leishman pairs up with Jason Day this season, after playing with another fellow Aussie, Cameron Smith, last season. Leishman/Day ended up tumbling to eighth place in last season’s event, and again, new partner pairing, even though these guys know each other well.

2021 QBE Shootout Contender to Back

Jason Kokrak/Kevin Na (+550) are a new team pairing, but I like what Na did in this event last season. He split up with Sean O’Hair, who will now be playing with Will Zalatoris. Na and O’Hair were a T2 last season, posting a 56 in the first round to fire out of the chute. It’s interesting that they are paired together again, but Kokrak has been hot, and he won the Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open back in early November.

He is playing with a lot of confidence, and Na has the good history in Naples. I think Strokes Gained: Putting is going to be the key to victory this week, and Kokrak ranks higher than anybody in the field with 1.109 in 10 measured rounds so far this season.

2021 QBE Shootout Top 3 Picks

I don’t believe they have a legit shot to win this thing, but Lexi Thompson/Bubba Watson (+550) represents a tremendous value as the longest odds on the Top 3 board. And remember, all ties are paid out in full, so there’s that. Thompson has played in the QBE on four different occasions, and Watson was T5 last season paired with Louis Oosthuizen.

Thompson missed last season’s event due to a conflict with the U.S. Women’s Open, but she is back for the first time since 2019, when she paired with O’Hair. In 2017, she teamed up with Tony Finau, and managed a fourth-place finish, her best in four appearances since 2016. At this price, why not?

Speaking of O’Hair/Zalatoris (+260), I like O’Hair’s SG: Putting numbers at .660 in eight rounds so far this season. It’s not a great sample size, but remember, he was also T2 at this event last season, too.

How to Bet on Golf

Golf betting has gained much more exposure and interest in the past few years, and with plenty of plus-money prices littered throughout the various forms of golf wagers, the chance for bigger scores is part of the reason behind that increased popularity.

2021 Golf Betting Schedule

Sportsbooks ensure that there are no shortage of wagering options on golf tournaments every week, and it isn't all about picking the winner. Grabbing the outright winner of a golf tournament is the best way to get that 'big score' but it's also the hardest wager to cash. After all, a typical professional golf tournament has a field of 140+ different players to consider.

Understanding Golf Odds and Bets

Most golf odds are listed in the fractional format – 10/1 on Dustin Johnson for example – and in that particular case you would multiply the amount bet by that first number to project your winnings. So a $100 bet on DJ to win that particular event would win you $1000.

If you are more comfortable with the American version of odds listings that you typically see across the other major North American sports – ie +1000 – these numbers are easily convertible. Online and app based books may already have that option built in, but the easiest way to do it yourself is to add two zeros to the first number in the fraction. So a 10/1 price on DJ converts to +1000 in that format.

Kevin Rogers

Kevin has been handicapping professionally since 2007 at VegasInsider before shifting to ScoresAndOdds. He focuses on MLB, NFL, college football, NBA, college basketball, and NHL and mainly uses trends, systems, and situations as his top handicapping angles. More from Kevin Rogers