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Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:49 PM

2020 Blue Grass Stakes Picks, Predictions, Odds


Blue Grass Stakes
Betting Resources and Picks

  • Date: Saturday, July 11
  • Post-Time: 5:30 p.m. ET
  • TV Coverage: FS1, NBC, NBCSN, TVG
  • Race: 9
  • Distance-Length: Dirt, 1 1/8 Miles
  • Qualification: Three-year-olds
  • Track: Keeneland
  • Location: Lexington, Kentucky

Blue Grass Stakes
Picks Analysis

1 – Shivaree (8/1)

The most seasoned runner in the group with 11 starts already under his belt picks up Hall of Famer John Velazquez and should be part of what looks to be a quick, contentious pace. Finished second to Belmont winner Tiz the Law two starts back in Florida Derby. Will have to figure out a trip from off the pace in here.

2 – Finnick the Fierce (12/1)

Was closer to pace than usual when forced into that position last out. Should get a solid pace to close into and gets key rider switch to Jose Ortiz. He’s certainly a contender at a price.

3 – Art Collector (5/1)

The “wiseguy” horse for sure, so much so that he’s only 5-1 on the morning line. Ran career-best when stretching out to dirt route in his most recent and the runner-up romped in the Indiana Derby this past Wednesday but was able to control the pace, an unlikely scenario in here. He’s a player but I feel like he’s going to be over bet and could react negatively to his most recent figure.

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4 – Mr. Big News (10/1)

Makes his first start since upsetting the Oaklawn Stakes in the slop at over 46-1 three months ago. Horses that finished behind him haven’t done much since and he’d need to improve his form on a fast track significantly to even get a slice.

5 – Man in the Can (10/1)

Brings a three-race win streak into this with one of the hottest riders in Kentucky and a pair of two turn wins under his belt. Runner-up from his Keeneland allowance win most recently returned to take the Ohio Derby in his next start. Should be one of the first ones to come calling on the early leaders. Major player.

6 – Hard Lighting (50/1)

Lone win in four tries came in off-the-turf race at Gulfstream two starts back. Taking a huge step up in class.

7 – Swiss Skydiver (3/1)

The filly takes on the boys in a bit of a curious move when you consider she could have run in a G1 earlier on the card against fillies. Connections are thinking Derby and need to get some points while she has more than enough Oaks points on her resume already. She’s fast, but there is other speed in here. Her rider, Hall of Famer Mike Smith, will need to either clear or get her to relax off the pace. I don’t believe there is a middle ground. She’s a logical contender but hard to back in the win pool as the likely favorite.

8 – Basin (8/1)

Finished a long way behind Charlatan in the Arkansas Derby when second and his one-turn races are better than his efforts around two. Maybe the pace collapses and they come back to him, but it is worth noting that he’s lost ground in the stretch in all three of his route races. Reluctant pass.

9 – Attachment Rate (20/1)

Lone win came in slop at Gulfstream, making him eligible for an entry-level allowance contest. Finished second to Belmont runner-up Dr. Post in the Belmont two starts back then had a bit of trouble early in the Matt Winn. He’s not for me but if you’re a longshot player you could do worse.

10 – Rushie (5/1)

Ships east having taken on the likes of Charlatan and Honor A. P., who he finished third to in the Santa Anita Derby last out, in two of his last three starts. Two back he won an allowance contest from just off the pace at Oaklawn. He gets his sixth different rider in his sixth start. He’s improved with every start and a repeat of his last puts him right there.

11 - Hunt the Front (30/1)

Broke his maiden two back in his sixth start before finishing well behind Man in the Can most recently. Would need his best effort to even hit the superfecta.

12 – Enforceable (10/1)

Raced against the bias at Fair Grounds when second in the Risen Star and fifth in the Louisiana Derby when last seen in late March. Broke his maiden at this distance at Saratoga last summer and was third in the Breeders’ Futurity over the course. He should get an amazing set up as far as the pace is concerned and picks up Joel Rosario. He’s as live as they get.

13 – Tiesto (15/1)

Gets stuck outside for his dirt debut having made his first four starts on turf. Mott reaches out for Prat, perhaps hoping to recapture their Country House magic from last year’s Kentucky Derby. He’s a half to multiple graded stakes inner Promises Fulfilled so he has plenty of pedigree to suggest dirt shouldn’t be an issue.

Blue Grass Stakes
Predictions - If I had $100

$4 Exacta Key Box 12 with 2,5,7,10,13
$.50 Trifecta Box 2-5-7-10-12-13

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