At the Gate – Saturday

It is the final Saturday of the Saratoga meeting today and we have a great card, a dozen races with four graded stakes.

The stakes action starts with the $250,000 Prioress (G2) in the third race. The Brad Cox trained Break Even comes into the race perfect in her six career starts, her last on turf.

The $200,000 Saranac (G3) drew a field of six with five likely to starts. Tracksmith will probably scratch to run in the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs.

The Chad Brown trained Good Governance is the likely favorite and I give Global Access (9-2) a good shot of pulling off the upset.

The $$250,000 Glens Falls (G2) drew eight plus one main track only entrant. Of course, Chad Brown will be well represented with three runners—Santa Monica (2-1), Fools Gold (5-2) and Night of England (12-1).

The feature is the $750,000 Woodward (G1) which drew a field of nine older runners with sights on making it to the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). The race is not a “Win and You’re In” race but several of these could be top contenders for the Classic.

Among those are Vino Rosso (7-2), who won the Gold Cup at Santa Anita (G1) in May and Yoshida, who was second in the Whitney (G1) in his last start. The Bill Mott trainee won the Woodward last year and was fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

My Best Plays Report for Saturday includes my nine strongest plays from Saratoga and Del Mar.

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Here is the opening race from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:

SAR Race 1 Md Sp Wt (12:30 ET)
#4 Structor 2-1
#1 King's Honor 5-1
#6 Sul Moon 5-2
#8 Pow Wow Prince 10-1

Analysis: Structor is sent out by the Chad Brown barn that is 21% winners with first timers. The trainer is 4 for 19 (with a +ROI) with juvie firsters so far at the meeting here. This colt was a $850,000 Ocala purchase, a big number for a son of palace Malice. He is out of a More Than Ready mare, her first foal to race. Solid looking works and this guy figures to be ready here for Brown who is set up to have a big day.

King's Honor debuts for the Thomas barn that is 12% winners with first timers. The trainer was a former assistant to Christophe Clement. This colt is by Kingman out of a Perfect Soul mare that has dropped one runner, no winners to date. The colt sports a couple of good recent breezes over the Oklahoma training track and a series of earlier turf works. Castellano picks up the call.

WIN: #4 to win at 8-5 or better.
EX: 1,4 / 1,4,6,8
TRI: 1,4 / 1,4,6,8 / 1,4,5,6,8

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:

SAR Race 11 The Woodward G1 (6:00 ET)
#7 Yoshida 5-2
#9 Tom's d'Etat 4-1
#3 Vino Rosso 7-2
#8 Wooderson 12-1

Analysis: Yoshida exits a runner up finish in the Whitney (G1) over the main track here at the Spa. The five-year-old was last early and came with a seven wide bid but could not get to McKinzie in the stretch, beaten 1 ¾ lengths while nearly five lengths clear of the third-place finisher Vino Rosso. He has not won since winning this race last year. He then went on to by our top pick in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) where he rallied to finish fourth at 14-1, beaten just 1 ¾ lengths. He comes in here off a career top speed fig and is going to get a good pace set up as there is enough early zip signed up the pace should be honest.

Tom’s d’Etat tracked the early pace, took command in the stretch and drew away to win the restricted Alydar last out over the main track here at nine furlongs. The third-place finisher Golden Brown returned to win the NJ bred Hesse in his next outing at Monmouth Park on Aug. 25. He was third in the Stephen Foster (G1) two back and ran second to McKinzie three back in the Alysheba (G2). He is perfect in his three trips over the Spa main track, breaking his maiden here in ’16 and winning an optional claimer in ’17 to go along with his win last out in the Alydar. He owns a solid pace profile throughout and should get a good trip sitting just off the pace.

Vino Rosso stalked the early pace, came six wide and finished evenly in a third-place finish in the Whitney last out. The colt won the Gold Cup at Santa Anita (G1) two back as our top pick where he beat Gift Box and earned a career top speed fig at 1 ¼ miles. The Pletcher trainee is 0 for 3 over the main track here but he did run well in the Jim Dandy (G2) last summer in a close up third. The blinkers come off and he put in a bullet drill over the main track here on Aug. 23. He should benefit if the pace is strong as expected.

WIN: #7 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 7,9 / 3,7,8,9
TRI: 7,9 / 3,7,8,9 / 3,5,7,8,9

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Del Mar:

DMR Race 7 The John C. Mabee G2 (5:15 PT)
#1 Vasilika 9-5
#7 Juliet Foxtrot 7-2
#4 Toinette 3-1
#5 Ahimsa 8-1

Analysis: Vasilika won this race at 4-1 last year and is going to be a lighter price here. She had a four-race winning streak snapped last out when third in the Yellow Ribbon 'Cap (G2) and her speed figure was actually higher than what she earned in each of her four previous starts which were all victories. The mare owns a solid pace profile throughout and looks really tough in this spot. She always gets bet, the favorite in 11 of her last dozen starts and she will be a short price again here but rough to take a stand against her.

Juliet Foxtrot took the field gate to wire to win the Modesty 'Cap (G3) last out at Arlington Park. She is perfect in her three starts since landing in the U.S. with the Cox barn. She gets a class test here facing a bit tougher than he took on last out at Arlington but looks as if she may be up to it.

WIN: #1 to win at 7-5 or better.
EX: 1,7 / 1,4,5,7
TRI: 1,7 / 1,4,5,7 / 1,3,4,5,7

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

R1: #8 Pow Wow Prince 10-1
R3: #4 Break Curfew 20-1
R6: #1 Power Player 10-1
R7: 34 Extreme Force 8-1
R7: #8 Always Misbehaving 8-1
R8: #7 Sharocket 12-1
R9: #8 Our Circle of Love 10-1
R9: #11 Take Charge Aubrey 8-1
R10: #8 Night of England 12-1
R11: #8 Wooderson 12-1
R12: #1 Somes Sound 12-1

Good luck today!