Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:57 AM
At the Gate - Sunday
I went 0 for 2 at Woodbine on Saturday but that won’t stop me from heading right back up north of the border today for a pair of Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” races.
First up is the $250,000 Summer (G1) going a mile on turf with the winner earning a free ticket to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) at Santa Anta on Nov. 1.
A field of 11 will line up led by 3-1 morning line favorite Mystic Lancelot from the Todd Pletcher barn. The colt was a good looking maiden winner in his debut at Saratoga going 5 ½ furlongs and is bred to go longer.
As you can see below I am looking for a bit more value and landed don the Mark Casse trained Proven Strategies (6-1) who exits a runner up finish in the Skidmore at Saratoga going 5 ½ furlongs.
The $250,000 Natalma (G1) drew a field of eight with the winner earning a berth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1).
Fair Maiden is the 6-5 morning line favorite and is coming off an impressive tur debut where she won the Catch a Glimpse over a yielding turf at Woodbine by 7 ½ lengths.
She now has to go a mile and the turf likely will be firmer although there is a chance of a few showers this afternoon.
The Euro invader Walk In Marrakesh (5-2) may be a better option. She was third in a Group 3 in France in her last outing.
My Best Plays Report for Sunday includes my eight strongest plays from Belmont Park and Woodbine
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Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:
BEL Race 1 Clm $16,000N2L (1:00 ET)
#6 Peggy Sue 9-5
#4 Dazzling Speed 7-2
#5 Shak's Hidden Gem 5-2
#1 Too Much Drama 5-1
Analysis: Peggy Sue made a mild late rally to finish third last out against $25,000 non-winners of two and drops in for a $16,000 tag here. There is not much pace signed up to go here and three back this gal pressed the early pace and drew clear to break her maiden against $25,000 state breds. We need the seven-pound bug to send this gal and she is sent she will be tough against this slow group.
Dazzling Speed tracked the early pace and weakened to finish fourth last out against $25,000 non-winners of two going seen furlongs. She too will be forwardly placed and she set the fractions over the main track here three and four back, holding on for a good third here in July. The main knock is the barn which has won just once in '19 with 52 starters.
WIN: #6 to win at 8-5 or better.
EX: 4,6 / 1,4,5,6
TRI: 4,6 / 1,4,5,6 / 1,4,5,6,7
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
BEL Race 7 Md Sp Wt (4:10 ET)
#4 Mr. Alec 6-1
#10 Shennan 2-1
#8 Tiberius Mercurius 9-5
#5 Compliant 8-1
Analysis: Mr. Alec came up the inside with a good late rally to miss by a neck in his debut at Monmouth Park, sent off at 9-2 in a field of nine. The gelding was 5 3/4 lengths clear of the rest of the field. He looks like he wants more ground and gets it today. He is by Mr. Sidney out of the stakes winner Silva ($104,151) who has dropped for other foals to race with two winners and one turf winner. The Clement barn is 16% winners with second out maidens.
Shennan adds blinkers here for his third start since landing in the U.S. He was second in his first two starts in Ireland in 15 and 17 horse fields. He came off the bench two back and ran a good third at the Spa going 1 3/8 miles and was fourth beaten 1 1/2 lengths last out going 1 3/16 miles. The Casse barn is 25% winners (with a +ROI) when adding the hood. Plenty of pedigree to handle the distance, by Rip Van Winkle out of a stakes placed Dubai Destination mare that has dropped one other foal to race, a turf winner.
WIN: #4 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 4,10 / 4,5,8,10
TRI: 4,10 / 4,5,8,10 / 4,5,8,9,10
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Woodbine:
WO Race 7 The Summer G1 (4:43 ET)
#2 Decorated Invader 9-2
#3 Proven Strategies 6-1
#6 Mystic Lancelot 3-1
#5 Keep On Truckin 4-1
Analysis: Decorated Invader was a good second in a highly graded race in his debut at the Spa over good ground. He made a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot behind Field Pass, who came back to run second in the With Anticipation (G3) in his next start on Aug. 28. Our top pick was one of three to exit that maiden race to graduate next out. He did it at the Spa where he tracked the early pace and took over heading for home, winning by 3 1/4 lengths as the betting favorite. He looks capable of moving forward off his maiden score for the Clement barn. The colt is out of an Arch mare that has dropped three other winners including a pair of turf winners.
Proven Strategies is of three in here sent out by the Casse barn that won this race three years in a row form 2-13-15. This colt is still a maiden, last out tracking the early pace and finished up well for the runner up spot in the Skidmore at 5 1/2 furlongs on turf at the Spa. He is by Sky Mesa out of a Quiet American mare, her first foal to race. He stretches back out to a route of ground here and the 6-1 morning line looks fair enough.
WIN: #2 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 2,3 / 2,3,5,6
TRI: 2,3 / 2,3,5,6 / 2,3,5,6,10
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
R2: #4 Magnesite 8-1
R5: #2 Discreet Image 10-1
R6: #3 Moshaher 10-1
R7: #5 Compliant 8-1
R8: #7 Blues City 8-1
R8: #2 Hold My Call 15-1
R9: #1 Psychic Energy / 1a Leaky Cup 10-1
Good luck today!