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Horse Racing

At the Gate – Saturday

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
6 minute read
Friday turned out to be a good day with three winners on top on the eight-race card at Belmont Park including the first timer Lifetime Memory who paid $23.60.
 
In addition to the three top picks my second choice won three other races and my third choice won the other two on the card.
 
The Pick 4’s paid $316.25 and $298.00 and the Pick 5’s payoffs were very generous at $788.50 and $2,067.00 on a .50 cent ticket.
 
We have a pair of graded stakes on tap at Belmont Park this afternoon—the $200,000 Noble Damsel (G3) and the $300,000 Kelso Handicap (G2).
 
At Parx Racing we have a pair of Grade 1 races—the $1 million Cotillion and the $1 million Pennsylvania Derby. The Cotillion is a “Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1).
 
This is the only day of the year I pay any attention to Parx Racing. The slots fueled track has a ridiculous 30% takeout on trifectas and superfectas, and I highly recommend if you plan on betting Parx today to stick to the win and exacta pools.
 
My Best Plays Report for Saturday includes my nine strongest plays from Belmont Park and Parx Racing.
 
Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Belmont Park Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday.
 
To purchase my Belmont Park and Best Plays Reports for Saturday click here .
 
Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:
 
BEL Race 1 Clm $20,000 (1:00 ET)
#4 Shareholder Value   1-1
#6 Data Driven   5-2
#3 Aristocratic   6-1
#1 Sir Ballentine   5-1
 
Analysis: Shareholder Value was pinched back coming out of the gate and then finished evenly in a fourth-place finish last out against $25,000 claimers. The gelding was claimed back by Rice who lost him two back for $20,000. This guy has been claimed seven times in his last nine starts. Two back he pressed the early pace and finished gamely to beat $20,000 foes while in the Rice barn. He figures to bounce back here facing a weak group.
 
Data Driven earned a 101 Beyer two back beating $12,500 claimers two back and was claimed away from Gargan by the Rod barn. He came back for a $40,000 tag and was sent off at 6-5 and we played against him and we were right as he got beat by 13 1/2 lengths against $40,000 foes. He adds blinkers and drops into an easier spot. He figures to bounce back but how much is a tough question.
 
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 6-5 or better.
EX: 4,6 / 3,4,6
TRI: no play
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
 
BEL Race 10 The Kelso Hcp G2 (5:57 ET)
#3 Pat On the Back   3-1
#2 True Timber   9-2
#5 Prince Lucky   2-1
#6 Plainsman   4-1
 
Analysis: Pat On the Back stretches back out to a mile after dueling for the early lead and weakening to finish third last out in the six-furlong restricted Tale of the Cat at Saratoga. He has done some of his best work over the Belmont Park main track, landing in the exacta in 8 of 10 trips with five wins. He won the state bred Commentator at today’s distance two back and won the state bred Empire Classic last fall at nine furlongs. The Englehart trainee should get a good tracking trip off what looks likely to be a sharp early pace. The barn is 24% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from sprint to route.
 
True Timber is seeking his first stakes win and is making his first start since getting outrun in a ninth-place finish in the Godolphin Mile (G1) in Dubai. He started off ’19 by getting outrun in the Pegasus World Cup (G1) in the slop in a seventh-place finish. He ran well in his last two starts of ’18, a runner up finish in the Bold Ruler Handicap (G3) behind runaway winner No Dozing and then a solid runner up in the Cigar Mile Handicap (G1) at 31-1. He was beaten just ¾ of a length by Patternrecognition. He has solid looking works on the morning tab for a barn that is 17% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180-day layoff.
 
Prince Lucky dueled for the early lead and finished well to win the State Dinner last out over the main track here. He bounced back after getting beaten double digit lengths in the Westchester (G3) and Met Mile (G1) in his two previous outings. Earlier this year he won back to back races at Gulfstream Park going a one turn mile, the Hal’s Hope (G3) and Gulfstream Park Mile (G2). He owns solid early and mid pace numbers but will not have things easy early as there is plenty of early zip signed up to go here. Pletcher has won the Kelso three times, most recently with Anchor Down in ’16.
 
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 2,3 / 2,3,5,6
TRI: 2,3 / 2,3,5,6 / 1,2,3,5,6
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Parx Racing:
 
PRX Race 11 The Pennsylvania Derby G1 (5:48 ET)
#2 Improbable   8-5
#4 War of Will   4-1
#6 Mr. Money   2-1
#5 Spun to Run   8-1
 
Analysis: Improbable has inherited the favorites role after the scratch of Maximum Security. The colt was the beaten favorite in the Kentucky Derby (G1) where he was placed fourth and was the beaten favorite in the Preakness (G1) where he was a disappointing sixth. He was freshened up and came back with a career top speed fig winning the Shared Belief at Del mar in his last outing. The colt owns a solid pace profile throughout with a good edge in early and mid pace numbers. Baffert has won this race in three of the last five years including the last two editions.
 
War of Will took the worst of it in the Derby where he was placed seventh. His effort was off a six-week break after not firing his best in the Louisiana Derby (G2). We made him our top pick in the Preakness and it paid off at $14.20. He regressed in his next two starts, a ninth in the Belmont (G1) and a fifth in the Jim Dandy (G2) where he was on the lead early. The Casse trainee has been working sharply in the mornings and has the look of a runner that is going to bounce back with an improved effort.
 
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 8-5 or better.
EX: 2,4 / 2,4,6
TRI: no play (30% takeout)
 
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
 
Belmont Park
R2: #3 Molly’s Nighthawk    8-1
R2: #4 Gunboat Diplomacy   10-1
R3: #1 Gio d’Oro   8-1
R3: #6 King Cause   12-1
R4: #3 Upham   10-1
R7: #1 Silver Kitten   8-1
R7: #4 Perfect View   8-1
R11: #1 Barrel of Destiny   10-1   
 
Good luck today!

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