At the Gate – Friday

We have a huge weekend on tap with 15 Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” races over the next three days including a pair today at Keeneland.

The $250,000 Phoenix (G2) drew a field of 11 with the winner earning a spot in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) while 11 fillies take center stage in the $400,000 Alcibiades (G1) with a staring berth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) up for grabs.

The Mark Casse trained Perfect Alibi is the 5-2 morning line favorite for the Alcibiades. The filly has won three of her four career start including winning the Spinaway (G1) in her last outing at Saratoga going seven furlongs.

Casse has had plenty of success in this race winning it in three of the last seen years, the most recent with Heavenly Love in 2017.

As you can see below, I am looking for more value with Alandra. The Shug McGaughey trainee was a smart looking maiden winner in her debut at Saratoga.

Coming up on Saturday we have six Breeders’ Cup Challenge races. There are four at Keeneland and one each at Belmont Park and Santa Anita. I will have all of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge races in Saturday and Sunday’s Best Plays Reports.

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Belmont Park Reports daily, my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday and my two-day Breeders’ Cup Report.

To purchase my Belmont Park Report for Friday click here.

Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

BEL Race 1 Md $20,000 (1:15 ET)
#7 Mine the Coin 2-1
#6 Impunity 9-5
#4 Cavaradossi 7-2
#2 Strategic Outlook 6-1

Analysis: Mine the Coin
stalked the early pace and tired to finish a well beaten sixth last out against $20,000 foes in the slop going seven furlongs. The gelding was a good second two back against $20,000 foes at the Spa off a five-month layoff. The winner Wicked Trick came back to beat $16,000 non-winners of two in his next outing on Aug. 10. Our top pick was claimed out of his last outing by the Gullo barn that is 19% winners (with a +ROI) first off the claim. He figures to bounce back with a better effort third off the bench.

Impunity exits the same race as our top pick. He made a good late run to finish in the runner up spot, beaten two lengths. He was cutting back form nine furlongs two back where he was not a threat in a ninth-place finish. He makes his third start of his current form cycle and a repeat of his last looks good enough to win here. He is out of a stakes placed Grand Slam mare that has dropped six other foals to race with four winners.

WIN: #7 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 6,7 / 2,4,6,7
TRI: 6,7 / 2,4,6,7 / 1,2,4,6,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 6 OClm $40,000N2X (4:05 ET)
#8 Classic Lady 5-2
#5 Lovely La La 3-1
#3 Out of Trouble 9-2
#1 Short Pour 8-1

Analysis: Classic Lady
was a good looking winner versus state bred Alw-1 foes over the turf here three back and she ran well in two trips at the Spa at this level, runner up finishes on yielding ground two back and firm ground in her latest. Her maiden breaker also came on the turf here for a $40,000 tag last June. The Abreu trainee owns a solid pace profile throughout and she has been at her best going a mile here. She is going to get some pace to run at and looks very legit in this spot.

Lovely La La tracked the early pace and came with a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot last out at this level at the Spa on the stretch out from seven furlongs to a mile. She ran second two back and was the beaten chalk in her last two outings. She was a god second here at this condition four back over yielding ground and there may still be some give to the ground today after rail fell yesterday knocking the races off the turf.

WIN: #8 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 5,8 / 1,3,5,8
TRI: 5,8 / 1,3,5,8 / 1,2,3,5,8

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Keeneland:

Kee Race 9 The Darley Alcibiades G1 5:30 ET
#4 Alandra 5-1
#7 Perfect Alibi 5-2
#6 British Idiom 4-1
#5 Micheline 8-1

Analysis: Alandra
was a game maiden winner going seven furlongs in her debut at Saratoga. She dueled in the stretch with a rival coming in on her and dug in to win by a half-length at 7-1. The fourth-place finisher Impeccable Style came back to graduate in her next outing on Sept. 28 at Churchill Downs. She has plenty of pedigree to move forward with more ground She is by Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner Blame out of the stakes winner Altesse ($412,232) who was trained by Shug and who has dropped two other foals to race, both winners. The barn is 26% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from sprint to route.

Perfect Alibi is the lone graded stakes winner in the field, and she has done it twice. She won the Adirondack (G2) and then the Spinaway (G1), both at Saratoga sprinting. She saved ground much of the trip last out and exchanged a few bumps with the eventual runner up in the stretch, winning by 1 ¼ lengths. The $220,000 purchase can handle more ground. She is by Sky Mesa out of the stakes winner No Use Denying ($219,016) who has dropped four other foals to race, all winners. She is the logical one to beat in here but is likely going to end up a light price.

British Idiom dueled for the early lead, came four wide into the stretch and drew clear late to break her maiden in a smart looking performance in her debut, winning by 3 ½ lengths. The runner up Miss Marissa came back to break her maiden in her next outing on Sept. 8 at Belmont Park. The Brad Cox trainee has been working sharply for her stakes debut at Churchill Downs. She is by Flashback out of the stakes winner Rose and Shine ($399,829) who has dropped two other foals to race including stakes winner Prada of Roses ($90,967). She adds lasix to the mix here. The Cox barn is 23% winners moving runners from sprint to route.

WIN: #4 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 4,7 / 4,5,6,7
TRI: 4,7 / 4,5,6,7 / 4,5,6,7,10

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park
R4: #5 Orpheus 8-1
R6: #1 Short Pour 8-1
R8: #5 Legend of Bam

Good luck today!