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Horse Racing

At the Gate – Saturday

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
7 minute read
It is Louisiana Derby Preview Day on Saturday at Fair Grounds with an outstanding card that features two Road to the Kentucky Derby points races.
 
There is a total of seven stakes on the card and I included six of them in today’s Best Plays Report along with action from Aqueduct and my selections for the El Camino Real Derby from Golden Gate Fields, which is also a Road to the Kentucky Derby points race.
 
The feature at Fair Grounds is the $400,000 Risen Star (G2) which is the first Derby points race to offer up 50-20-10-5 points to the top four finishers.   The race has been split and there are now two divisions, the first with a field of 11 and the second division has a dozen.
 
The winners of each race stamp a ticket to Louisville for the Kentucky Derby and the runner ups will earn 20 points. It probably will take about 30 points to make it into the Derby field if it is oversubscribed, which is likely.
 
We cashed on Enforceable at $15.60 in the Lecomte (G3) last month but I am going to attempt to beat him for the top spot in the first division of the Risen Star with Blackberry Wine, who makes his stakes debut for trainer Joe Sharp and is going to end up a decent price.
 
Anneau d’Or is the 9-5 favorite in the second division and he looks tough. He makes his first start since a neck loss in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2).
 
The El Camino Real Derby offers up 10-4-2-1 points toward entry into the Kentucky Derby and is a “Win and You’re In” race for the Preakness Stakes (G1).
 
The feature at Aqueduct this afternoon is the $100,000 Broadway for state bred fillies and mares going six furlongs on the main track.
 
My Best Plays Report for Saturday includes my 11 strongest plays from Aqueduct and Fair Grounds as well as the El Camino Real Derby from Golden Gate Fields.
 
To purchase my Aqueduct and Best Plays Reports for Saturday click here .
 
Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Aqueduct Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday which will include all of the major Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races.
 
Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
 
AQU Race 1 Md Sp Wt (1:00 ET)
#2 Patrol   5-2
#6 Wandering West   1-1
#5 Twelfth Man   4-1
#4 Sixteen Tons   5-1
 
Analysis: Patrol has been working sharply for his debut and catches a good spot here taking on just five foes. The $350,000 Keeneland purchase is by Liam's Map out of the stakes winner Jenny's So Great ($678,438) who has dropped two foals to race but no winners. The Casse barn is 17% winners with first timers. She looks ready to fire at first asking.
 
Wandering West was off a beat slow in his debut last fall at Delaware Park where the Servis trainee was sent off as the chalk. The colt came with a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot, beaten a half-length for the top spot. The winner Self Taught came back to beat Alw-1 optional claimers in his next outing. Slow works on the morning tab but that is par for the course for Servis, who is 29% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180-day layoff.
 
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 2,6 / 2,5,6
TRI: no play
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
 
AQU Race 8 The Broadway (4:25 ET)
#5 Kept True   5-2
#4 Hay Field   3-1
#2 Cash Offer   2-1
#3 Bluegrass Jamboree   5-1
 
Analysis: Kept True was beaten a length by Cash Offer last out in the state bred La Verdad but looks capable of turning the tables today. She dueled for the early lead, headed for home with the lead and got run down late. She caught a racing strip that was kind to outside stalkers and closers that day. She beat non-conditioned state breds two back at today's six-furlong distance. Her main rival also picks up six pounds today. She owns a solid pace profile throughout and will appreciate the return to six panels.
 
Hay Field comes in here very sharp having won three in a row and landed in the exacta in eight of her last dozen starts. She beaten state bred Alw-2 optional claimers last out and has been claimed six times in her last seven starts. She goes to Arriaga who is 27% winners (with a +ROI) first off the claim. She has landed din the exacta in 10 of her 12 starts over the Big A main track and is quick enough to grab the early lead with Carmouche aboard or is just as comfortable sitting just off the pace.
 
Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 4,5 / 2,4,5
TRI: no play
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Fair Grounds:
 
FG Race 12 The Risen Star G2 (5:38 CT)
#7 Blackberry Wine   5-1
#8 Enforceable   7-2
#2 Silver State   4-1
#9 Mr. Monomoy   6-1
 
Analysis: Blackberry Wine makes his stakes debut here after a sharp win last out against Alw-1 optional claimers. The colt set the early fractions, lost the lead in upper stretch and battled back for the win. The effort was his first on a fast dirt surface e going long. Three of his first five starts came on turf. Two back in his first start against winners he pressed the early pace and did not have enough left late in a third-place finish on yielding turf here. Three others came out of that race to win next out. The winner Hieronymus came back to win the randy Romero Memorial here on Feb. 1 while the runner up Bodecream won the Texas Turf Mile at Sam Houston in his next outing. It took him four tries to break maiden but he did run into repeaters in two of those starts There is not a ton of speed in here so he should get a good trip on sitting just off the pace. He is bred to run all day, by Oxbow out of a A.P. Indy mare that has dropped four other winners. Looks as if we should catch a fair price on this guy.
 
Enforceable paid $15.60 as our top pick in his Lecomte (G3) win last out and he looked really good winning that race by 1 1/2 lengths. He had a tough spot, was off near the back of the pack, did not get a ton of pace to run at and made a strong late run. He earned a career top speed fig and he looks as if the added ground here will not be a problem. he again may not get a ton of pace to run at and his price is going to be lighter. I still think this guy could be a serious Derby threat but hoping our top pick is going to offer more value for the top spot.
 
Silver State was my second choice in the Lecomte and he ran well. The colt made a good late rally to finish 1 1/2 lengths behind the winner in a runner up finish. It was his first go around two turns. He broke his maiden by 9 3/4 lengths in his debut in a deadheat and then missed by a nose going a one turn mile in the slop at Churchill Downs in his first start against winners. The $450,000 Keeneland purchase is by Hard Spun out of the stakes winner Supreme ($162,789) who is by Empire Maker. The Asmussen trainee has some ability and I don't think we have seen the best out of him yet.
 
Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 7,8 / 2,7,8,9
TRI: 7,8 / 2,7,8,9 / 2,7,8,9,11
 
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
 
Aqueduct
R2: #6 My Amanjena   10-1
R4: #10 Misty Taste   2-1
R6: #5 Blessed Halo   10-1
R7: #2 Possetizzly   20-1
R7: #11 Coolboy   8-1
R9: #6 Let’s Maga   8-1
 
Good luck today!

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