Horse Races Today: Friday's Churchill Downs Analysis & Odds
May 21, 2020
By Mike Dempsey
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The holiday weekend is upon us, and we have plenty of racing action to keep us busy right through Memorial Day.
We have a strong 10-race card at Churchill Downs on Friday and the fields continue to be large and competitive, leading to great betting opportunities.
Saturday’s 11-race card at Churchill Downs features five stakes races including the $150,000 Matt Winn (G3), which is now a Road to the Kentucky Derby points race.
The 5-2 morning line favorite is the undefeated Maxfield, who makes his first start since winning the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) last October at Keeneland. A minor issue with one of his front legs knocked him out of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and sent him to the sidelines.
This colt would have had a tough time getting ready for the Kentucky Derby (G1) in May, but now his connections have all spring and summer to get him ready for the first Saturday of September.
He faces a solid group looking to hop on the Derby Trail including the Louisiana Derby (G2) runner up Ny Traffic (10-1) and fourth place finisher Major Fed (5-1).
There are co-second chances on the morning line at 4-1. Attachment Rate ran second in the Unbridled at Gulfstream Park in his last outing and Pneumatic is undefeated in two starts at Oaklawn Park and will be making his stakes debut.
I will have my selections and analysis for the Matt Winn in tomorrow’s column.
To purchase my Churchill Downs Report for Friday click here.
Fox Sports 2 will cover the action from Churchill Downs from 12:30 to 2:20 and 4:30 to 6:00 ET today, sandwiched around a Bundesliga soccer game. In addition, horseplayers can stream all the horse racing action using the Watch TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players.
Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Churchill Downs or Belmont Park Reports daily and my Best Plays Report which will include all the major Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races.
Here is the opening race from Churchill Downs to get the day off to a good start:
Churchill Downs Race 1 Analysis - 5/22
#1 Cowan 7-2
#12 Sheriff Bianco 7-2
#9 Spicy Marg 3-1
#11 Back Ring Luck 10-1
Analysis: Cowan debuts for the Asmussen barn that is 17% winners with first timers. This colt was a $185,000 Keeneland purchase, by Into Mischief out of a stakes placed Smart Strike mare, her first foal to race. This colt has been working quickly including a bullet work out of the gate at Keeneland. He takes on two Ward trainee here and draws the rail but will still lean toward the colt who looks ready to fire at first asking.
Sheriff Bianco is one of the two Ward first timers in here. The trainer is well now to have his juvies ready but is just 1 for 7 so far this season and he has had a few too many beaten chalks. This colt was a $120,000 Keeneland purchase, by Speightster out of a Perfect Soul mare that has dropped three foals to race with one winner, stakes winner Never Gone South ($244,135). Only four published works on the morning tab, the most recent a bullet out of the gate at Keeneland.
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Churchill Downs:
Churchill Downs Race 7 Analysis - 5/22
#5 Chewing Gum 7-2
#6 Telekinesis 4-1
#4 Riverboat Gambler 9-2
#11 Fig Jelly 3-1
Analysis: Chewing Gum is cutting back from a mile on the main track at Gulfstream Park and returns to turf. Last out at this level he was away last and came with a good late rally to finish third, beaten a length. The runner up and ninth place finisher came out of the race to win next out. His line turf sprint came in his debut where he made a mild late bid to finish third. He graduated going a mile on turf at Kentucky Downs. The switch back to turf suits here for the Mott barn. The five-year-old is out of a stakes placed Forestry mare that has dropped two other turf winners.
Telekinesis switches to turf two back and was beaten just a neck at Tampa Bay Downs in a game effort at a mile. He regressed last out at the same distance, tracking the early pace and weakening to finish fourth. This guy broke his maiden at six furlongs on dirt and won the Queen's Plate at Woodbine on the synthetic surface at 1 1/4 miles. He has enough tactical speed he may be able to handle the cut back here.
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
R1: #11 Back Ring Luck 10-1
R4: #5 Judge Parker 15-1
R5: #4 Pure Sugar 8-1
R5: #7 Champagne Bling 15-1
R6: #2 Autumn Jett 8-1
R8: #11 Shadilee 15-1
R8: #7 Nayibeth 10-1
R9: #7 English Affair 10-1
R10: #4 Henny Fly 10-1
R10: #5 Kay Bee Gee 8-1
Good luck today!
Mike covers the New York racing circuit (Aqueduct, Belmont Park, and Saratoga) year-round as well as covering the biggest events including the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, Belmont Stakes and the Breeders’ Cup.
A professional handicapper and horseplayers for more than three decades, no handicapper in the industry works harder and been more successful in bringing horseplayers analysis that produces profits at the track!
Mike has owned racehorses and knows the racetrack from the backstretch to the finish line.
Mike is in his second decade of producing great results for the readers of Vegas Insider. Among his scores in the Kentucky Derby include winning with his top pick Animal Kingdom who paid $43.80 in 2011 and Super Saver at $18.00 in 2010.
While favorites have dominated the Run for the Roses in recent years, Mike’s full card analysis for every race on each card is always looking for value for horseplayers looking to pad their wagering bankroll.
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