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Horse Races Today: Friday's Belmont Park and Churchill Downs Analysis & Odds


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It was bombs away during the second half of the Belmont Park card on Thursday, and that led to a late Pick 5 carryover for Friday of $327,647.

The sequence started with the logical A d’Oro paying $10.00. Perhaps we should have seen the bombs coming as 133-1 Queentigua ran second.

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The first longshot came in the seventh race as Riken stole it, taking the field gate to wire and returning $52.50 with the up and coming seven pound apprentice rider Luis Cardenas aboard.

Tap It to Win took the field gate to wire to win the eighth race, paying $14.40. Paret then wired the field on turf in the nine race to the tune of $78.50.

In the nightcap it was Cardenas again, booting home first time starter Hunnybunnerdini who paid $97.00. While nobody hit the late Pick 5, the late Pick 4 was hit, a winning ticket for $.50 paying $81,855.75.

Today’s late Pick 5 starts with race six at 3:59 ET, a second level optional claimer. The feature this afternoon is the $80,000 Harmony Lodge which drew a field of 10 fillies and mares.

I landed on the morning line favorite Mother Mother who ships in from the west coast for the Bob Baffert barn. However, she is no cinch and I plan on having Chalon and Royal Charlotte on some of my Pick 5 tickets.

You can catch the action from Churchill Downs and Belmont Park today from 1:00 to 2:30 and 4:30 to 6:30 ET on FS2. Horseplayers can also stream all the horse racing action using the Watch TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players.

My Best Plays Report for Friday includes my eight strongest plays from Churchill Downs and Belmont Park.

To purchase my Belmont Park and Best Plays Reports for Friday click here.

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Belmont Park Reports daily and my Best Plays Report which will include all the major Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races.

Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

Belmont Park Race 1 Analysis - 6/5 (1:15 ET)

#2 Grit and Glory 2-1
#9 Thomas Shelby 8-1
#8 Hizaam 5-2
#3 Walkoff 4-1

Analysis: Grit and Glory stalked the early pace and made a good late rally, drawing off to beat $30,000 non-winners of two at 6-5 going a mile. The third-place finisher Malibu Music came back to beat $16,000 non-winners of two in his next start on May 1 at Gulfstream Park. The gelding was claimed out of the race by the Pletcher barn that does not visit the claim box often, just 10 times in the past two years, winning with four first out. He returns off a 3 1/2 month break here and looks well spotted dropping in for $14,000 as he steps up a notch to the non-winners of three condition.

Thomas Shelby weakened to finish eighth last out against restricted $40,000 foes on turf. The Ward trainee drops into an easier spot and returns to dirt. Both of his wins have come on poly but he did run a decent third at Keeneland on dirt against $100,000 non-winners of three optional claimers last April at seven furlongs. Pino is in to ride this guy and another Ward trainee later in the card and seldom makes a trip to the Big Apple. Worth tossing in the mix here if we catch most of the 8-1 morning line.

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Churchill Downs:

Churchill Downs Race 7 Analysis - 6/5 (4:14 ET)

#4 Shedaresthedevil 3-1
#1 Lucky Betty 7-2
#2 Alta's Award 4-1
#3 Fire Coral 7-2

Analysis: Shedaresthedevil is coming off a third in the Fantasy (G3) last out at Oaklawn Park. The filly broke inward coming out of the gate and got caught in some traffic on the first turn and was no match for the top pair late. She won the Honeybee (G3) two back in a sharp effort. She looks capable of moving forward off her last effort and owns a solid pace profile throughout. She will not be as far back here with Geroux aboard.

Lucky Betty handled his first start against winners in fine fashion at Oaklawn Park last out earning a career top speed fig despite getting in some traffic on the far turn. This gal just gets better with each outing and looks sharp enough to handle the step up into a tougher spot here. She draws the rail and is capable of being more forwardly placed in this spot.

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

Belmont Park Race 7 Analysis - 6/5 (4:32 ET)

#10 Time Limit 5-2
#5 Winifred J 6-1
#2 Stretchthestory 7-2
#11 The Important One 10-1

Analysis: Time Limit set the early fractions and weakened late to finish third last out in a NY Stallion Series race in the mud at seven furlongs last December in her last outing. The winner A Freud of Mam came back to win the state bred Franklin Square on Jan. 18 in her next outing. He lone trip on turf came in the Matron (G3) three back here at six furlongs where she set the early fractions and could not hold off Alms late in a runner up finish. Alms won her next two starts including the Jimmy Durante (G3). she popped a bullet work and with Kendrick up we know she is going to be out there early. The Maker barn is 16% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180-day layoff.

Winifred J prompted the early pace and tired to finish seventh last out on the main track at the Big A. She broke her maiden on turf here last September in gate to wire fashion in her first start off the claim by the Barker barn. She returns off a three month break here for a capable barn that attracts Castellano. She has landed in the money in four of her five trips on turf and the 6-1 morning line looks fair.

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park
R1: #9 Thomas Shelby 8-1
R2: #9 Positive Skew 12-1
R2: #6 Petalite 10-1
R3: #9 Scarf It Down 12-1
R4: #3 Midnight Whiskey 10-1
R4: #1 Frozen Account / 1a River Nile 8-1
R5: #12 Heirloom Kitten 10-1
R5: #7 Me Everything 12-1
R6: #2 Mount Travers 10-1
R7: #11 The Important One 10-1
R9: #3 Honey I’m Good 8-1
R10: #5 Arkaan 20-1
R10: #9 Uncle George 8-1
R10: #1 New Frontier 8-1

Good luck today!

  
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HORSE RACING EXPERT
Mike Dempsey Mike covers the New York racing circuit (Aqueduct, Belmont Park, and Saratoga) year-round as well as covering the biggest events including the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, Belmont Stakes and the Breeders’ Cup.
A professional handicapper and horseplayers for more than three decades, no handicapper in the industry works harder and been more successful in bringing horseplayers analysis that produces profits at the track!

Mike has owned racehorses and knows the racetrack from the backstretch to the finish line.

Mike is in his second decade of producing great results for the readers of Vegas Insider. Among his scores in the Kentucky Derby include winning with his top pick Animal Kingdom who paid $43.80 in 2011 and Super Saver at $18.00 in 2010.

While favorites have dominated the Run for the Roses in recent years, Mike’s full card analysis for every race on each card is always looking for value for horseplayers looking to pad their wagering bankroll.

Mike's Reports include his selections, detailed analysis, a fair odds line, and wagering recommendations for the entire card each day.

Check out Mike’s daily column At the Gate where he offers up free selections and live longshots.

Join Mike daily with top picks from Churchill Downs or grab winners in the Weekend Best Plays Report in the horse racing Multi-Track package. Want more action? Sit at the track with him for 30 Days with his Monthly Horse Package!
  
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