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Friday's Picks from Belmont Park



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With just 41 days until the Breeders’ Cup we have a big day of preps coming up on Saturday, with six Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” races on tap.

There are five at Santa Anita and one at Belmont Park and I’ll breakdown each in tomorrow’s Best Plays Report.

Among the most interesting races tomorrow is the $300,000 Awesome Again (G1) at Santa Anita, a “Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).

Maximum Security is the 3-5 morning line favorite while his stablemate Improbable is the 8-5 second choice in the field of five.

They have only faced off one, in last year’s Kentucky Derby where Improbable was the beaten favorite where he crossed the wire fifth and was elevated to fourth thanks to the disqualification of Maximum Security.

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Maximum Security was trained by Jason Servis at the time but has been moved to the Bob Baffert barn after Servis was indicted as part of a widespread doping scheme.

Both of Baffert’s runners have already stamped their ticket to the Classic at Keeneland. Maximum Security by virtue of his win in the Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar and Improbable by winning the Whitney (G1) at Saratoga in his last outing.

Maximum Security is perfect in his two starts since landing with Baffert. He won the San Diego Handicap (G2) in his first start for the barn. That outing was off a five-month layoff and his first start since winning the Saudi Cup (G1) in February.

The colt has things pretty easy up front last out in his gate to wire score and I am not convinced yet this colt may regress at some point. He has won 10 of his 12 career starts, but the question is how many of those wins were actually legit?

You can catch the action from Belmont Park today from 12:30 to 6:00 ET on FS2. In addition, you can stream the action on YouTube or by using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players. 

To purchase my Belmont Park Report for Friday click here.

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Belmont Park Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday as well as my Preakness Day Report.

Here is the opener from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start: 

BELMONT RACE 1 ANALYSIS (1:00 P.M. ET)

Race 1 Md $20,000

  • #8 Warfront Fighter   6-1
  • #5 Brees Bayou   5-1
  • #3 Freedom Force   8-5
  • #2 Tri Saint Lorenzo   9-2               

Analysis: Warfront Fighter was off a beat slow last out, stalked the early pace and weakened to finish fourth behind repeat winner Macho Jack. The winner came back to beat $25,000 non-winners of two in his next outing on Aug. 22. Two back our top pick pressed the early pace, had the lead and weakened to finish fourth behind another next out winner. Fed Funds returned to beat $50,000 starter allowance company in his next start. The colt should be in the mix early for Sciacca who takes over from Gullo. A couple of quick works on the morning tab since his last effort.

Brees Bayou tracked the early pace from the outside and weakened to finish fifth last out at 18-1. He ran well over the main track here three back off the bench in a third-place finish, beaten three lengths. He owns solid early and mid pace numbers and catches a pretty weak group here. Decent valuer if he goes off near his 5-1 morning line. 

BELMONT RACE 7 ANALYSIS (3:48 P.M. ET)

Race 7 Md Sp Wt

  • #1 Corey Scores   9-2
  • #9 Mo Me Mo My   7-2
  • #5 Skye Snow   5-1
  • #12 Alley to Calvary   8-1

Analysis: Corey Scores is cutting back to a sprint here after a seventh-place finish last out against $50,000 starter allowance foes. Two back going a mile here this guy came with a good late rally to get beaten just a couple of heads in a third-place finish. The winner of that race was Bean Counter who came back to beat $35,000 non-winners of three on Aug. 7 at Saratoga. The filly broke her maiden over the turf here at seven furlongs last October and can handle the cut back. The Cox barn is 30% winners moving runners from route to sprint.

Mo Me Mo My faded to finish seventh in the mud last out in a race taken off the turf. Two back at 6-5 on turf versus $40,000 non-winners of two she came with a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot. Her maiden score came at Del Mar going 5 1/2 furlongs last September. She is back in for a tag and figures to bounce back with the switch back to turf. 

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park

  • R2: #3 Little Red Frog   8-1
  • R6: #8 Blue Gator   8-1
  • R7: #12 Alley to Calvary   8-1
  • R8: #6 Beach Access   10-1
  • R10: #10 Adorable Maya   12-1 

Good luck today!


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HORSE RACING EXPERT
Mike Dempsey Mike covers the New York racing circuit (Aqueduct, Belmont Park, and Saratoga) year-round as well as covering the biggest events including the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, Belmont Stakes and the Breeders’ Cup.
A professional handicapper and horseplayers for more than three decades, no handicapper in the industry works harder and been more successful in bringing horseplayers analysis that produces profits at the track!

Mike has owned racehorses and knows the racetrack from the backstretch to the finish line.

Mike is in his second decade of producing great results for the readers of Vegas Insider. Among his scores in the Kentucky Derby include winning with his top pick Animal Kingdom who paid $43.80 in 2011 and Super Saver at $18.00 in 2010.

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