Friday’s Picks from Aqueduct

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

14 minute read

My first or second choice won six of the eight races at Aqueduct on Thursday to kick off the week, but one of the two races I whiffed on was the fourth race, which was part of both Pick 5 sequences.

Using my top two picks in the late Pick 4 returned $459.50 for a $16 investment. So we ended the day on a good note.

The early Pick 5 holds the most promise on Friday, as the later races look chalky and I actually picked the favorite in the fifth, sixth and seventh races. That does not happen very often.

We have a pair of road to the Kentucky Derby points races coming up on Saturday and they are both excellent wagering races.

A field of nine go in the $250,000 Withs (G3) at Aqueduct. Capo Kane wired the field in the Jerome in his last outing and is the 3-1 morning line favorite. However, he did it over an inside speed favoring racing strip and looks vulnerable.

We will head out to Tampa Bay Downs tomorrow as well where the feature is the $250,000 Sam F. Davis (G3). 13 were entered with a dozen to start and it is a wide open affair.

Smiley Sobotka is the 3-1 morning line favorite. The Dale Romans trainee ran second in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) in his last outing and makes his three-year-old debut.

The form of that stake has not exactly held up and he looks beatable. The Bill Mott trained Candy Man Rocket looks as if he will offer some value at 10-1 on the morning line.

In addition, I will take a good look at the Todd Pletcher trained Known Agenda, who is 6-1 on the morning line. Pletcher has won the Sam F. Davis a record six times.

You can stream the action from Aqueduct today on YouTube or by using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a 50% deposit match up to $250 .  In addition, AmWager is offering up to a $500 bonus for new horseplayers.

To purchase my Aqueduct Report for Friday click here .

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Aqueduct Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday.

Here is the opening from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQUEDUCT RACE 1 ANALYSIS (1:20 P.M. ET)

Race 1 Md $25,000

• #4 Yerosilverbiz 3-1
• #2 Tapit's Flashback 7-2
• #1 Centavo 5-2
• #5 Ohyoudidntknow 9-2

Analysis: Yerosilverbiz pressed the pace in his debut while down along a dead rail and tired to finish ninth against $40,000 foes, sent off at 6-1 in a field of nine. He drops into a softer looking spot here and Carmouche sticks. The colt has some early zip and there is not much early pace or talent signed up to go here. The colt is by Fed Biz out of a Street Boss mare that has dropped one other foals to race, 2 for 13 Foxy's Edge ($26,565). The barn is 23% winners moving runners from sprint to route.

Tapit's Flashback tracked the early pace and finished up well in a runner up finish in his debut, no match for a 10-length winner, sent off at 10-1 in a field of seven. He returns with blinkers added for the Donk barn that does not win first out very often. The colt has the pedigree to handle more ground, by Flashback out of a Broken Vow mare and has a solid off track pedigree.

AQUEDUCT RACE 4 ANALYSIS (2:55 P.M. ET)

Race 4 Md $25,000

• #1 Women Not Easy / 1a Madam Deputy 5-2
• #6 Grape Therapy 8-5
• #5 Tiny Magoo 7-2
• #7 Vitanza 9-2

Analysis: Madam Deputy returns off a four month break and catches a soft spot here tagged for $25,000. Last out the filly set the early fractions while down along a deep rail and weakened to finish third. The winner Mind of Gold came back to beat $16,000 non-winners of two in her next outing on Jan. 24. The RRod barn claimed this gal out of her debut but then she was not a threat beaten a combined 60+ lengths in her first two starts for the barn. The time off seems to have helped and she is going to be tough in this spot if ready to go off the break. The barn is 15% winners with runners coming back off a 61–180-day layoff. Her entrymate Women Not Easy set the early fractions and weakened to finish third last out against open $20,000 foes She is back with state breds here and completes a strong entry.

Grape Therapy set the early fractions and could not hold off the winner late in a runner up finish in the slop last out. She was claimed out of the race by the Kantarmaci barn that is 24% winners (with a +ROI) first off the claim. She has two seconds over wet tracks and appears to have more upside than most of these.

Tiny Magoo caught a muddy track last out against $40,000 state breds where she stalked the early pace and faded to finish a well beaten sixth. It was her first go off nearly a three-month break. She faces an easier group here in her second start since landing with the Morley barn. She owns a solid pace profile throughout and should show more today.

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager. 

Aqueduct

• R5: #4 Brass Ring 8-1
• R6: #3 Moon Sweeper 8-1
• R7: #1 Jack Bo 10-1
• R8: #7 Appreciate 8-1

Good luck today!

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