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Thursday's Picks from Aqueduct



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The Aqueduct spring meeting gets underway this afternoon and it could be a wet one with rain in the forecast which could leave the track off.

Spring has sprung as there are turf races carded for Friday, which also is opening day of the Keeneland fall meeting. The Gulfstream Park championship meeting is in the books meaning many top horses and jockeys will make the trek north.

Among those are Jose and Irad Ortiz who return to the Big A to ride. Irad had a huge meet at Gulfstream Park, winning 140 races. Paco Lopez was a distant second in the jockey standings with 98 winners. Jose Ortiz was seventh in the standings with 50 winners.

Eric Cancel closed out the meeting at Aqueduct on Sunday with a big day, picking up six wins and passing Kendrick Carmouche to win the jockey title with 78 winners. Carmouche finished second with 76 winners while Manny Franco was third with 61 winners.

Hopefully trainers will keep giving Cancel and Carmouche live mounts as they both deserve it. I have stated on multiple occasions I think the Ortiz brothers are both overrated.

We have another big Saturday coming up with three Road to the Kentucky Derby points races on tap—The Blue Grass (G2) at Keeneland, the Santa Anita Derby (G1) at Santa Anita and the Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct.  I will have my selections and analysis for all of the big races on Saturday’s Best Plays Report.

You can stream the action from Aqueduct today on YouTube or by using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a 50% deposit match up to $250.  In addition, AmWager is offering up to a $500 bonus for new horseplayers.

To purchase my Aqueduct Report for Thursday click here.

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Aqueduct Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday which include the major Kentucky Derby preps.

Here is the opening from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start: 

AQUEDUCT RACE 1 ANALYSIS (1:20 P.M. ET)

Race 1 Md Sp Wt

  • #5 Dom's Feisty Girl    3-1
  • #4 Electric Youth   9-5
  • #3 Vivazano   8-5
  • #1 Misspotofgold   15-1

Analysis: Dom's Feisty Girl is a $50,000 Ocala purchase making her debut for the Sciacca barn that is showing a 0 for 21 mark with first time starters. If we dig back five years, the trainer is 4 for 78 (with a +ROI) and three of those came here at the Big A. The filly sports a quick work tab including a bullet drill out of the gate on March 26. She looks ready to go and this is not a very imposing group of state breds she faces here. She is out of a stakes placed Crafty Prospector mare and bred to handle a wet track.

Electric Youth caught a sloppy track in her debut where she was sent off at just under 8-1 in a field of 12. She stalked the early pace and came with a wide bid, finishing evenly in a fifth-place finish, beaten 2 1/2 lengths. She has posted a couple of good works since her debut for the Kimmel barn that is coming off a good winter meet here. Ortiz picks up the call and this gal should move forward with a race under her belt. She is out of a FuPeg mare that has dropped one other foal to race, 6 for 36 Thirsty Gal ($88,340). 

AQUEDUCT RACE 6 ANALYSIS (4:01 P.M. ET)

Race 6 Alw $50,000s

  • #6 Advance Notice   5-2
  • #8 Gimme Some Mo   4-1
  • #3 First Line   6-1
  • #1 Indian Counselor / 1a Dust Devil   7-2

Analysis: Advance Notice has run second in three straight starts at this level and now stretches back out to nine furlongs. Three back at this distance he was beaten just a neck. Two back he ran second to repeat winner Double Blessed, who came back to beat Alw-1 company on Feb. 21. Last out he was a game second behind Tiergan who returned to run second versus state bred Alw-1 foes in his next outing. The Maker trainee has run well in both trips over wet tracks which he may see again today.

Gimme Some Mo is back from Florida where last out on turf he checked in third over good ground at this level in his first start against winners. He graduated two back for a $50,000 tag on turf off a 3 1/2-month break. He ran pretty well on dirt in his second and third career starts last year, and he is bred to handle a wet track, by Uncle Mo out of a Mineshaft mare. The Pletcher barn is 22% winners moving runners from turf to dirt. 

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win wager. 

Aqueduct

  • R1: #1 Misspotofgld   15-1
  • R3: #5 Big Boy Mo   10-1
  • R7: #1 Gone Glimmering   8-1 

Good luck today!

  
 
HORSE RACING EXPERT
Mike Dempsey Mike covers the New York racing circuit (Aqueduct, Belmont Park, and Saratoga) year-round as well as covering the biggest events including the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, Belmont Stakes and the Breeders’ Cup.
A professional handicapper and horseplayers for more than three decades, no handicapper in the industry works harder and been more successful in bringing horseplayers analysis that produces profits at the track!

Mike has owned racehorses and knows the racetrack from the backstretch to the finish line.

Mike is in his second decade of producing great results for the readers of Vegas Insider. Among his scores in the Kentucky Derby include winning with his top pick Animal Kingdom who paid $43.80 in 2011 and Super Saver at $18.00 in 2010.

While favorites have dominated the Run for the Roses in recent years, Mike’s full card analysis for every race on each card is always looking for value for horseplayers looking to pad their wagering bankroll.

Mike's Reports include his selections, detailed analysis, a fair odds line, and wagering recommendations for the entire card each day.

Check out Mike’s daily column At the Gate where he offers up free selections and live longshots.

Join Mike daily with top picks from Churchill Downs or grab winners in the Weekend Best Plays Report in the horse racing Multi-Track package. Want more action? Sit at the track with him for 30 Days with his Monthly Horse Package!
  
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