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Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:50 PM

Wednesday's Picks from Saratoga

We enter the second week of the Saratoga meeting this afternoon with some rain in the forecast which could foul things up.

To be honest this afternoon’s card is not going to go down as one of the better ones of the meeting, that much I am sure of. Today’s feature, the $100,000 Rick Violette drew a small field of five juveniles that will go six furlongs on the main track.

In addition we have to dodge a few too many imposing looking chalks which if they all come in could lead to a very tiny early Pick 5. I took stands against some of them, but Raffinity, who is the 3-5 morning line chalk in the fourth looks pretty tough.


After four days of racing last week the two trainers that figure to battle it out for the training title are a combined 3 for 31. Todd Pletcher went 1 for 15 and Chad Brown is 2 for 16, not the start either barn was looking for.

Both barns have strength in numbers and eventually will get to the top of the standings, but is important to remember these barns get bet, and often hard.

Pletcher lost with six runners that went off at 9-5 or less and another seven that went off at odds between 4-1 and 9-1. His ROI was a puny $0.28.

Brown has a ROI of $0.71. His winners came with first timer Portfolio Company ($4.40) on Saturday and Free Enterprise ($7.10) who won a restricted $50,000 claimer on Sunday. Brown had eight runners go off at 3-1 or less including his two winners.

“Saratoga Live” is on FS2 (and streaming on YouTube) from 1:00 to 6:30 ET. Looking to play the ponies? TVG is offering new players  up to a $300 Risk Free wager.  In addition, AmWager is offering up to a $500 bonus for new horseplayers.

To purchase my Saratoga Report for Wednesday click here .

Here is the third race (the opener is a steeplechase and the second race is chalky) from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:

SARATOGA 3 ANALYSIS (2:15 P.M. ET)

 Race 3 Md $75,000

  • #9 Evvie Jets 3-1
  • #1 Coalition Building / 1a Federalist Papers 1-1
  • #6 Blue Times 10-1
  • #2 Wow 5-1

Analysis: Ewie Jets makes her second start off the bench for the Tony D. barn that has been very live this year overall hitting at a 29% clip aver a very quiet '19. Last out over good ground the filly raced near the back of the pack, made a middle move to get into the mix and did not have enough punch left late in a fourth-place finish against maiden special weight foes. The winner Star Command came back to beat Alw-1 foes in her next start and the fifth-place finisher Meet the Beauty came back to graduate in her next start on June 27 at Monmouth Park. Lasix is added as she drops in for a tag for the first time.

Coalition Building stalked the early pace and made a mild late bid to finish third last out going 1 1/4 miles. Two back she was a close up third behind repeat inner Higher Truth who beat Alw1 foes and then was a solid third in the Belmont Oaks (G1). This gal had to take a long break after missing by a head back in '19 but looks like a good fit here. Entrymate Federalist Papers made two starts at Tampa Bay Downs, a third in her debut and a fifth second out trying nine furlongs. She drops in for a tag while adding blinkers for Brown. She was a $250,000 Keeneland purchase, the first foal to race out of a Galileo mare. A nice turf pedigree on this galas she returns off a four-month break. Brown is 26% winners with runners coming back off a 61–180-day layoff.

SARATOGA 8 ANALYSIS (5:05 P.M. ET)

Race 8 OClm $45,000N2X

  • #10 Three Outlaws 4-1
  • #7 Analyzethisandthat 10-1
  • #5 Swashbuckle 6-1
  • #12 Fast Getaway 5-2
  • #1 Discretionary Marq 9-2

Analysis: Three Outlaws stalked the early pace and came with a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot last out at this level, beaten 3/4 of a length for the top spot. Three back over good ground he was a close up third, beaten a half-length for the top spot. He beat state bred Alw-1 company two back in his 12th attempt at the condition. He is coming in here in very sharp form and has shown he can handle ground with some give to it. Santana picks up the call for the sharp Atras barn that came up short with five starts during opening week. After a tough '19 here (2 for 34) the trainer went 7 for 38 (17%) here last year.

Analyzethisandthat dueled for the early lead and fought on gamely in a runner up finish last out at Monmouth Park against open Alw-2 optional claimers over good ground at 13-1. he checked in third two back in the slop in a race taken off the turf in his first go since Nov. of '19. He is back in with state breds here and beat open Alw-1 foes on good ground back in the summer of '19 at Monmouth Park. He does not need to move forward much off his last effort to be in the mix here and is going to end up a decent price.

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their Pick 4 and Pick 5 wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win wager. 

Saratoga

  • R2: #3 Frosted Indian 12-1
  • R3: #6 Blue Times 10-1
  • R5: #4 Live in Five 8-1
  • R5: #8 Handle the Truth 10-1
  • R7: #6 Front Man 10-1
  • R8: #7 Analyzethisandthat 10-1
  • R9: #7 American Dubai 10-1
  • R10: #11 Boom Boom Kaboom 10-1
  • R10: #5 Babagram 8-1

Good luck today!

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