Wednesday’s Picks from Saratoga

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

13 minute read

We kick off week four of the Saratoga meeting on Wednesday which includes a pair of stakes race, the $150,000 New York Stallion Series Statue of Liberty and the $120,000 Shine Again.

Trainer Mike Maker had another good week and has now won with 14 of his 47 starters at the meeting, a 30% clip with a ROI of $3.22.

The last time a trainer not named Todd Pletcher or Chad Brown won the trainer’s title was in 2009 when Linda Rice won top honors, saddling 20 winners.

Pletcher is currently second with eight winners while Steve Asmussen and Brad Cox have seven. Brown has won seven races from his 54 starters. Only Maker has started more horses at the meeting to date.

Today’s New York Station Series race drew a field of seven and five all exit the same race which was won by Sport Model. Funwhileitlasted ran second in that race and has a good shot of turning the tables with a better trip.

The Shine Again drew a field of six fillies and mares that will travel seven furlongs on the main track. Aunt Kat is the 7-5 opening line favorite and is coming off a sharp win against second level optional claimers. The Bill Mott trainee looks tough with Casual (4-1) and Bayerness (8-5) her main foes.

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To purchase my Saratoga Report for Wednesday click here .

Here is the third race (the opener is a steeplechase and the second race looks chalky) from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:

SARATOGA 3 ANALYSIS (2:15 P.M. ET)

 Race 3 Md Sp Wt

• #6 Next Tuesday 5-1
• #3 Take the Backroads 2-1
• #7 Leviosa 5-2
• #4 Amore Fire 15-1

Analysis: Next Tuesday put in a decent effort in her debut in a runner up finish in the slop at Monmouth Park. Last out here over a wet track she stalked the early pace from the outside and tired to finish sixth at 7-2, catching a racing strip that was kind to inside speed. She is out of a Lemon Drop Kid mare that won on turf and has dropped just one other foal to race, 0 for 7 Thirsty's Pride. Breen is 12% winners moving runners from dirt to turf. Saez picks up the call for a barn that does good work with juveniles. Would be no surprise to see more out of this filly with the surface switch.

Take the Backroads exits the same race as our top pick. She set the early fractions but could not hold off the winner in a runner up finish, beaten one length. She was beaten just a head and a neck in her debut two back at Churchill Downs after getting off a beat slow. She is out of an unraced Bernstein mare that has dropped two turf winners, stakes placed Accredit ($130,644) and G3 turf stakes winner Sistas Stroll ($235,420).

SARATOGA 7 ANALYSIS (4:29 P.M. ET)

Race 7 Alw $50,000s

• #9 Wild William 8-1
• #1 Montauk Daddy 8-5
• #3 Convection 9-2
• #5 Our Destiny 6-1

Analysis: Wild William prompted the early pace and weakened to finish sixth last out against state bred Alw-1 foes in his first start off a six-month layoff and his first go since landing win the Breen barn. This guy won back to back races last year including beating $40,000 non-winners of two here going 5 1/2 furlongs while in the Bond barn. He has landed in the exacta in 4 of 7 trips over the Spa turf. She should be tighter second off the bench and the 8-1 morning line looks more than fair.

Montauk Daddy set the early fractions and got run down late in a runner up finish last out at this level. Two back the colt set the early fractions and held on gamely until late in a fourth-place finish, beaten 3/4 of a length. The winner of that race was Artemus Citylimits who came back to beat $32,000 claimers in his next start and three others exited that race to run second in their next outings. The colt draws the rail and owns solid early and mid pace numbers. He looks tough in this spot but is going to be a short price.

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their Pick 4 and Pick 5 wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win wager. 

Saratoga

• R2: #5 Demuro 10-1
• R3: #4 Amore Fire 15-1
• R6: #1 Towering Orbit 8-1
• R7: #9 Wild William 8-1
• R8: #5 Honor Way 10-1
• R10: #11 Claddagh’s Run 12-1

Good luck today!

VegasInsider Staff

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