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Saturday's Picks from Belmont and Keeneland



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We have two stakes on tap at both Keeneland and Belmont Park on Saturday afternoon and they all look like they are solid wagering races.

At Keeneland, the $150,000 Perryville drew a field of nine three-year-old that will go seven furlongs on the main track. Soup and Sandwich (3-1) is making his first start since running a distant 19th in the Kentucky Derby (G1) back in May.


The $250,000 Rave Run (G2) drew a competitive field of 13 three-year-olds fillies that will also go seven furlongs on dirt. The Bill Mott trained Obligatory is the 3-1 morning line favorite. She ran second in the Cotillion (G1) at Parx in her last start and is cutting back to one turn.

The $200,000 Noble Damsel (G3) at Belmont Park will have nine fillies and mares doing battle at one mile on turf. The Chad Brown trained Tamahere is the 9-5 morning line favorite. Brown is looking for his sixth consecutive victory in the race.

The co-feature is the $400,000 Hill Prince (G2) at 1 1/8 miles on turf. Eleven go to the post led by Saranac (G3) winner Public Sector (5-2) and the runner up Never Surprised (5-1) from the Todd Pletcher barn.

My selections for all four stakes are in today’s Best Plays Report for Saturday which includes my nine strongest plays from Belmont Park and Keeneland.

“America’s Day at the Races” is on FS2 from 12:30 to 5:30 ET with the action from Belmont Park. TVG is offering new players up to a $300 Risk Free wager.  In addition, AmWager is offering up to a $500 bonus for new horseplayers.

To purchase my Belmont Park and Best Plays Reports for Saturday click here.

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Belmont Park Reports daily, Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday and my Breeders’ Cup Reports.

Here is the opener from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

BELMONT PARK 1 ANALYSIS (12:35 P.M. ET)

Race 1 Clm $16,000N2L

  • #11 Speed Effect 5-2
  • #6 Profusion 4-1
  • #5 Johnnypump 3-1
  • #1 Make It in Ny 10-1

Analysis: Speed Effect makes his third start off the bench here for the Levine barn. Off the layoff two back he caught a muddy track where he set the early fractions and tired to finish fourth against $25,000 non-winners of two going seven furlongs. Stretched out to nine furlongs last out he set the early fractions and got nailed late, beaten a neck. Irad sticks and the cut back to a mile should suit this guy. He catches a field without much early pace or talent.

Profusion tracked the early pace, took over the lead and battle don gamely until late in a third-place finish, beaten 1 1/2 lengths at 6 1/2 furlongs at this level. He ran pretty well three back in a runner up finish at today's one mile distance. The RRod barn is having a good meet and this guy seems to be heading in the right direction form wise. He will appreciate the extra ground and should get a good tracking trip.

BELMONT PARK 8 ANALYSIS (4:21 P.M. ET)

Race 8 The Noble Damsel G3

  • #3 High Opinion 3-1
  • #1 In a Hurry 8-1
  • #10 Tamahere 9-5
  • #6 Love And Thunder 5-1

Analysis: High Opinion came with a good late rally and came up just a nose short last out in the Ballston Spa (G2) in a career top effort for the Tony D. barn. Her only other stakes try was a good second in the Winter Memories last November at Aqueduct. Two back she beat Alw-1 foes in a sharp score. The barn has been live all year and we have had a ton of success backing it. This gal is going to get a perfect pace set up as there is enough early zip signed up. Like Saez sticking.

In a Hurry chased the early pace, took over the lead and drew clear late to a smart looking win over Alw-2 optional claimers last out going a mile here over good ground. It took her five tries to pass the condition and she has only a seventh in her lone trip in a stakes race. She makes her third start of her current form cycle for the Shug barn and she should be sitting a good trip just off what hopefully is going to be an honest pace.

KEENELAND 7 ANALYSIS (4:12 P.M. ET)

Race 7 The Perryville

  • #1 Soup and Sandwich 3-1
  • #6 Pipeline 4-1
  • #4 He'smyhoneybadger 6-1
  • #5 Pickin' Time 7-2

Analysis: Soup and Sandwich makes his first start since a 19th place finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1) back in May. He won his first two starts then ran a good second in the Florida Derby (G1) in his stakes debut. The colt has worked sharply for his return off the bench for the Casse barn that is 15% winners with runners coming back off a 61–180-day break. He broke his maiden in his lone sprint and looks ready to go off the bench.

Pipeline was a good looking maiden winner last out for Brown in his fourth career start. The colt tracked the early pace and drew clear to win by 3 1/4 lengths. The third-place finisher Cody's Wish coming back to graduate in his next start on Oct. 2 at Churchill Downs. Two back he was beaten a head by Vindictive who returned to beat Alw-1 company in his next outing on Sept. 1 at the Spa. It took a couple of starts for this guy to figure things out and he looks as if he still has some upside and has earned solid numbers in his last two outings.

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their Pick 4 and Pick 5 wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win wager. 

Belmont Park

  • R1: #1 Make It in Ny 10-1
  • R2: #2 Basso 10-1
  • R3: #9 Radiant Gem 8-1
  • R4: #6 Tallaj 12-1
  • R5: #8 Nikostratos 8-1
  • R6: #3 Repo Rocks 8-1
  • R6: #8 Montatham 8-1
  • R7: #7 Tijera Lee 10-1
  • R8: #1 In a Hurry 8-1
  • R9: #2 Slicked Back 8-1

Good luck today!

  
 
HORSE RACING EXPERT
Mike Dempsey Mike covers the New York racing circuit (Aqueduct, Belmont Park, and Saratoga) year-round as well as covering the biggest events including the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, Belmont Stakes and the Breeders’ Cup.
A professional handicapper and horseplayers for more than three decades, no handicapper in the industry works harder and been more successful in bringing horseplayers analysis that produces profits at the track!

Mike has owned racehorses and knows the racetrack from the backstretch to the finish line.

Mike is in his second decade of producing great results for the readers of Vegas Insider. Among his scores in the Kentucky Derby include winning with his top pick Animal Kingdom who paid $43.80 in 2011 and Super Saver at $18.00 in 2010.

While favorites have dominated the Run for the Roses in recent years, Mike’s full card analysis for every race on each card is always looking for value for horseplayers looking to pad their wagering bankroll.

Mike's Reports include his selections, detailed analysis, a fair odds line, and wagering recommendations for the entire card each day.

Check out Mike’s daily column At the Gate where he offers up free selections and live longshots.

Join Mike daily with top picks from Churchill Downs or grab winners in the Weekend Best Plays Report in the horse racing Multi-Track package. Want more action? Sit at the track with him for 30 Days with his Monthly Horse Package!
  
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