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2021 Santa Anita Derby Picks, Predictions and Odds

 

Apr. 2, 2021

Horse Racing Expert
VegasInsider.com

Santa Anita Derby
Betting Resources and Picks

  • Date: Saturday, Apr. 3, 2021
  • Post-Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
  • TV Coverage: NBCSN, TVG
  • Race: 8
  • Distance-Length: Dirt, 1 1/8 Miles
  • Qualification: Three-year-olds
  • Track: Santa Anita Park
  • Location: Arcadia, California

Kentucky Derby Prep Betting Resources

Santa Anita Derby
Picks, Analysis and Odds

1 – Roman Centurian (8/1)

Just missed to Medina Spirit in Lewis before getting beat a long way in San Felipe when the sidelined Life Is Good just rolled along up front. Gets some more ground and should get a more honest set-up.

2 – Dream Shake (7/2)

Unlike others it appeared as if he tried to make a run at the winner in the San Felipe before tiring to third. That was just his second start and first around two turns. He gets leading rider Prat and should be fitter for the trip this time around.

3 – Rock Your World (4/1)

Is perfect in two starts on turf and makes his dirt debut in a tough spot. I’m a fan of his though and his pedigree suggests he’ll handle any and all surfaces. He’s up close in his turf races but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll have similar speed on dirt. That morning line is awful. I like him but need a better price.

4 – Parnelli (20/1)

Adds blinkers for his first start in two months. Stakes experience hasn’t been good. Needs to improve a bunch to contend.

5 – Back Ring Luck (20/1)

Won his last pair after starting his career with three losses. Wins came in maiden claimer at Churchill and in a money allowance contest at a big price at Oaklawn. Water much deeper here.

6 – Ottothelegend (12/1)

Ships in off a maiden tally in second start and first around two turns for Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen. Overcame a tough trip but the horse he beat came back to run poorly next out from the same barn.

7 – Medina Spirit (5/2)

He’s won two of his four starts and finished second to Life Is Good in his other two tries. I think he’ll get pounded at windows. I’ve never thought he was much and that opinion sticks. He’ll be on or close to the lead and should work out a good trip but if he wins I lose. Too many more interesting alternatives at much better prices.

8 – Law Professor (10/1)

Added blinkers and stretched out to win his second start at over 20-1. Hard to tell how good he is but when you’re against the favorite and don’t really love anyone else like me you should keep an open mind.

9 – The Great One (8/1)

Broke his maiden by a pole with Lasix, other races without it are mediocre. No Lasix for this. This one, I’m not a fan of either.

10 – Defunded (8/1)

He was the “other” Baffert when breaking his maiden at 8-1 last out and will reprise the role here. If you’re a Baffert fan, you’re better off trying this guy at a price than betting the favorite despite the fact that he’ll be stretching out while trying stakes company for the first time.

Santa Anita Derby
Predictions - If I had $100

$40 win on 3
$10 Exacta 3 with 1,2,8
$5 Trifecta 3 over 1,2,8

Who is the Big A?

VegasInsider.com Horse Racing expert Anthony Stabile provides his "Stabile's Seven" rankings throughout the Kentucky Derby prep trail.

Anthony “the Big A” Stabile can be heard regularly on the Horse Racing Radio Network from 3-6:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday and 3-7:00 p.m. ET Thursday and Friday.

Tune in on Sirius 219, XM 201 or streaming live at horseracingradio.net. He also is a contributor on NYRA-TV as the co-host of Talking Horses and a backup racetrack announcer. Follow him on Twitter @TheBigAStabile


  
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