2022 Oscars Picks, Predictions, Odds
2022 OSCARS BETTING RESULTS
- Favorites-Underdogs: 21-2
- Largest Favorite to Win: Dune - Best Visual Effects (-3500) / Jane Campion - Best Director (-3500)
- Longest Underdog to Win: The Windshield Wiper - Best Animated Short (+500)
- Most Awards: Dune (6)
- Best Picture - CODA (-155)
- Best Actor - Will Smith - King Richard (-800)
- Best Actress - Jessica Chastain - The Eyes of Tammy Faye (-140)
- Best Director - Jane Campion - The Power of the Dog (-3500)
- Best Supporting Actor - Troy Kotsur - CODA (-800)
- Best Supporting Actress - Ariana DeBose - West Side Story (-1600)
- Best Original Screenplay - Belfast (+110)
- Best Adapted Screenplay - CODA (-250)
- Best Cinematography - Dune (-500)
- Best Animated Film - Encanto (-1000)
- Best International Film - Drive My Car (-2500)
- Best Documentary - Summer of Soul (-360)
- Best Film Editing - Dune (-125)
- Best Production Design - Dune (-300)
- Best Costume Design - Cruella (-450)
- Best Makeup & Hairstyle - The Eyes of Tammy Faye (-280)
- Best Song - No Time to Die (-225)
- Best Sound - Dune (-1200)
- Best Score - Dune (-500)
- Best Visual Effects - Dune (-3500)
- Best Documentary Short - The Queen of Basketball (-155)
- Best Animated Short - The Windshield Wiper (+500)
- Best Live Action Short - The Long Goodbye (-225)
2022 Oscars Picks & Predictions
This is a unique market, one where some of the best value is gone overnight - which actually happened this year. When it comes to betting the Oscars you have to jump on the odds quickly as the public begins wagering more as the event draws closer. This year, a great example was Jessica Chastain to win Best Actress at +500. We recommended Chastain at 5/1 with our early viewing of the film. Since, she has won multiple awards and has seen her odds shift to -165 and now the favorite to win.
We also recommend Troy Kotsur to win Best Supporting Actor at +300 before he won two awards against Kodi Smith-McPhee, who was the favorite. Kotsur is now -350, so the value has passed him. If you did not catch the early odds we recommended then that's okay, there's still some value to consider in this year's show - although the best bets may have already sailed with Chastain and Kotsur odds moving.
THOM'S 2022 OSCARS BETTING TICKET
- Jessica Chastain Best Actress at 5/1 - February 15, 2022 +500
- Troy Kotsur Best Supporting Actor at 3/1 - February 17, 2022 +300
Flee Best Documentary at 5/4 - February 22, 2022-100Attica Best Documentary at 20/1 - February 27, 2022-100- CODA Best Picture at 10/1 - March 3, 2022 +1000
Be Alive Best Song at 8/1 - March 4, 2022-100The Mitchell's vs. The Machines Best Animated Film at 10/1 - March 6, 2022-100- CODA Best Adapted Screenplay at 7/4 - March 14, 2022 +175
- Belfast Best Original Screenplay at 13/10 - March 14, 2022 +130
- The Long Goodbye Best Live Action Short at 2/5 - March 22, 2022 +100
Penelope Cruz Best Actress at 7/2 - March 27, 2022-100
Thom's Oscars Ticket Total: +1705
UPDATE - Monday, March 21
Just one day after I posted my best bets and predictions the odds have already switched dramatically. We already recommended Chastain and Kotsur who now have large odds to win, but one play I continually told people to hammer with the value of Chastain and Kotsur gone was CODA to win Best Movie at +1000.
Those odds are long gone, as even the 4/1 odds the film had last night have now shifted to +120. If you have yet to take CODA for Best Picture then this would be your last chance for value, so hop on it. Also, CODA for Best Adapted Screenplay at +175 was recommended yesterday but also saw odds shift overnight, and is now the FAVORITE to win at -165.
CODA for Best Picture is still the top recommended bet available, but the Best Adapted Screenplay odds are now gone. As of Monday afternoon - on the week of the Oscars - CODA for Best Picture at +120 is still the best bet although the value from 10/1 to 4/1 to +120 is a tough pill to swallow if you took it too late.
Also, Belfast for Best Original Screenplay was discussed below as I am now officially adding it to my best bets to consider for value on Sunday. Licorice Pizza's odds have dropped once again for the category at +100, the first time the film has seen plus-value. Belfast has moved up along with the very creative Don't Look Up. Either are good bets with Licorice Pizza dwindling, but of the two Belfast to win Best Original Screenplay seems like a lock at this point to test.
UPDATE - Tuesday, March 22
Odds haven’t changed much since Monday, although CODA’s odds for Best Picture backed up a tad at +130. Looking through odds today it does seem that a healthy favorite worth considering is The Long Goodbye for Best Live Action Short. Riz Ahmed is a popular choice among Academy voters, and delivers a powerful short that should win. If you are looking away from value and thinking of wagering on a favorite then The Long Goodbye is relatively cheap (compared to most favorites at the Oscars) and should win the Best Live Action Short category.
UPDATE - Saturday, March 26
As of this morning, CODA is now the favorite to win Best Picture at this year's Oscars. The film currently sits ahead of The Power of the Dog, and at one point saw odds to win as long as 25/1. As stated almost every time I discuss this unique betting market - you have to act early. My top three bets all saw odds change and are now favorites entering the show on Sunday. This is why the early viewing and betting is so important. It's an easy mistake to make, but also a valuable lesson to learn. I missed My Octopus Teacher for Best Documentary last year, seeing +125 odds but falling to -500 by the time the show was close. If you missed on the 25/1, 20/1, 10/1, 4/1, 6/5 or the 1/1 odds CODA saw for best movie have no fear. There are still some good underdogs out there to consider (many I listed above), but it does seem that with CODA's value now completely gone the best value lies in Best Original Screenplay. Take your pick between Don't Look Up and Belfast, but it seems either are prime underdogs to upset Licorice Pizza.
UPDATE - Sunday, March 27
The day is finally here! The 2022 Oscars are tonight and our betting ticket is set. However, there is one category to possibly consider for value if still searching for some. It's ironically the Best Actress category as DraftKings has moved Penelope Cruz's odds for Best Actress all the way up to +350. This is one of the largest leaps in terms of odds this year, so it begs the question if bettors who missed on Chastain's 5/1 odds should revisit this category? Absolutely. I personally think Chastain is the best and took the 5/1 odds. However, if you feel Cruz is worth a shot at +350 go for it. She was not nominated for her role in other award shows which should be a red flag, but Nicole Kidman was. Kidman's odds have dropped to +450 although she opened as the favorite to win in this category. Until literally this morning, the Best Actress race was between two individuals - now three. I feel compelled to take Kidman at +450 over Cruz's +350, but the odds shifting makes you wonder if Chastain is a safe favorite still?
UPDATE - Sunday, March 27
I am officially adding Penelope Cruz to my betting ticket. Her odds continue to shrink which scares me for Chastain a bit. Either way I will have plus-value on the top two favorites to win, so if you missed Chastain and are looking for value in Best Actress then Cruz is officially on my ballot. I still like Kidman but Cruz snagged an L.A. Critics Choice Award so it does seem that her moving odds are justified. I still thinK Chastain wins but I'm adding Cruz as a safety net to hedge.
Thom's 2022 Oscars Bets
- Jessica Chastain, Best Actress +500 (now -165)
- Troy Kotsur, Best Supporting Actor +300 (now -350)
- CODA, Best Picture +1000 (now +120)
- CODA, Best Adapted Screenplay +175 (now -165)
- Belfast, Best Original Screenplay +130 (now +130)
Thom's 2022 Oscars Long Shot Bets
- Best Animated Film, The Mitchell's vs. The Machines +1000 (now +500)
- Best Documentary, Flee +140 (now +230)
- Best Documentary, Attica +2000 (now +1000)
- Best Song, Be Alive (King Richard) +800 (now +700)
Betting on the Oscars
Best Oscars Betting Sites:
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Where to bet on the Oscars:
Colorado | Indiana | Louisiana | Michigan | New Jersey
2022 Oscars Contenders to Watch
The Power of the Dog
- Best Picture -250
- Best Actor, Benedict Cumberbatch +500
- Best Director, Jane Campion -3000
- Best Supporting Actor, Kodi Smith-McPhee +240
- Best Adapted Screenplay -200
- Best Cinematography +250
- Best Production Design +2000
- Best Score +400
Although I have Cumberbatch rated as my No. 1 actor of the nominations, the best value with a chance to win here is Best Cinematography. Campion will win Best Director, so of all the nominations that seems to be the biggest lock. The most worrisome is Best Picture, as CODA has gained huge momentum as more people view the film.
Best Value: Best Cinematography +250
Biggest Lock: Best Director, Jane Campion -300
Buyer Beware: Best Picture -250
Dune
- Best Picture +5000
- Best Adapted Screenplay +3300
- Best Cinematography -350
- Best Production Design -400
- Best Costume +400
- Best Makeup & Hairstyle +500
- Best Film Editing -110
- Best Sound -650
- Best Score -650
- Best Visual Effects -3000
This movie may take home more awards than any other, so if your sportsbook is offering this then definitely consider it as a prop. This was a very technically well made movie, and should win most of the awards it is favored for. The biggest stand out are the sounds categories in which it is favored heavily for, along with production design. Although favored for Best Film Editing, the odds are short at -110 and may get shorter as that particular category is seeing tons of odds shifting the last week or so. Despite the large odds, Visual Effects is worrisome with the popularity of Spider-Man: No Way Home.
Best Value: Best Makeup & Hairstyle +500
Biggest Lock: Best Sound -650
Buyer Beware: Best Film Editing -110
West Side Story
- Best Picture +2000
- Best Director, Steven Spielberg +1200
- Best Supporting Actress, Ariana DeBose -2000
- Best Cinematography +1400
- Best Costume Design +1200
- Best Sound +400
Spielberg is actually a great value bet to consider here, as his odds have shortened despite a large 12/1. This movie may suffer from many losses to top contenders, much like The Trial of the Chicago 7 did in 2021. However, there is a certain lock in this movie which is Best Supporting Actress in Ariana DeBose. She has already swept precursor award shows and might be the lock of the show. The Best Sound and Production Design category has potential dark horse written all over it, as this film is a strong contender to upset a category or two based on the popular appeal and overall quality of the picture.
Best Value: Best Sound +400
Biggest Lock: Best Supporting Actress, Ariana DeBose -2000
Buyer Beware: Best Costume Design +1200
2022 Oscars Underdogs to Watch
CODA
The boat has been missed on Kotsur, so if you didn't get to him early enough then don't worry as there is value still with the most popular movie right now. CODA is raking up all the awards heading into the Academy Award Show, and actually opened with odds to win Best Picture at +2000. The recommended bet at the time saw odds at 10/1, so at +450 there is still time to jump on CODA for Best Picture - which would be quite the emotional upset if it were to win. As a result, Best Adapted Screenplay odds have shortened for CODA, which currently sees The Power of the Dog at the top.
Best Value: Best Picture +450
Biggest Lock: Best Supporting Actor, Troy Kotsur -350
Buyer Beware: Best Adapted Screenplay +175
Belfast
- Best Picture +600
- Best Director, Kenneth Branagh +1400
- Best Supporting Actor, Ciaran Hinds +1600
- Best Supporting Actress, Judi Dench +2500
- Best Original Screenplay +175
- Best Sound, +2500
- Best Song, Down to Joy +2000
Belfast is nominated for seven categories, but not favored in any of them. For a movie so well made and one that critics absolutely love, its tough to see Belfast leave Sunday empty-handed. The competition is tough, but there is one category it has a chance to win and thats Best Original Screenplay. Licorice Pizza is the current favorite, but it has very short odds to win and continues to fluctuate. Personally, I loved the Best Sound odds for this film but it realistically has a chance to win for its screenplay - which came across almost as a playwright, which should get the true thespian votes.
Best Value: Best Original Screenplay +175
Biggest Lock: None
Buyer Beware: Best Picture +600
Flee
Much like Belfast, its difficult to see a movie as good as Flee go home empty-handed on Sunday. Unfortunately, it might as Drive My Car will annihilate any other picture for Best International Film and everyone seems sold on Encanto winning Best Animated Film. However, Best Documentary has a fighting chance for Flee - which sees a music festival lead the odds and a very good prison riot piece on its tail. Although Summer of Soul was very good, it is a bit simple but could've easily seen a Best Film Editing nomination. Its one of the more beatable favorites entering Sunday and Flee's stakes were higher (along with Attica). I actually rated Summer of Soul the Best Documentary when it came out in the Summer of 2021 - but both Flee and Attica are very strong underdogs to challenge the favorite.
Best Value: Best Documentary +230
Biggest Lock: None
Buyer Beware: Best International Film, +700
Favorites & Long Shots by Categories
- Thom's Picks: 18-2
Best Picture
- Favorite: The Power of the Dog -250
- Long Shot: West Side Story +2000
- Thom's No. 1 Ranking: King Richard +2500
- Thom's Pick: CODA +450
Best Actor
- Favorite: Will Smith (King Richard) -1000
- Long Shot: Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth) +5000
- Thom's No. 1 Ranking: Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog) +500
- Thom's Pick: Will Smith (King Richard) -1000
Best Actress
- Favorite: Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) -165
- Long Shot: Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) +300
- Thom's No. 1 Ranking: Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) -165
- Thom's Pick: Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) -165
Best Director
- Favorite: Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) -3000
- Long Shot: Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive my Car) +2500
- Thom's No. 1 Ranking: Steven Spielberg (West Side Story) +1200
- Thom's Pick: Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) -3000
Best Supporting Actor
- Favorite: Troy Kotsur (CODA) -350
- Long Shot: Kodi Smith-McPhee (The Power of the Dog) +240
- Thom's No. 1 Ranking: Troy Kotsur (CODA) -350
- Thom's Pick: Troy Kotsur (CODA) -350
Best Supporting Actress
- Favorite: Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) -2000
- Long Shot: Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) +750
- Thom's No. 1 Ranking: Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) -2000
- Thom's Pick: Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) -2000
Best Original Screenplay
- Favorite: Licorice Pizza -250
- Long Shot: Don't Look Up +1600
- Thom's No. 1 Ranking: Licorice Pizza -250
- Thom's Pick: Belfast +175
Best Adapted Screenplay
- Favorite: The Power of the Dog -200
- Long Shot: Dune +3300
- Thom's No. 1 Ranking: The Power of the Dog -200
- Thom's Pick: CODA +175
Best Cinematography
- Favorite: Dune -350
- Long Shot: West Side Story +2000
- Thom's No. 1 Ranking:The Power of the Dog +300
- Thom's Pick: Dune -350
Best Production Design
- Favorite: Dune -400
- Long Shot: West Side Story +1400
- Thom's No. 1 Ranking: Dune -400
- Thom's Pick: Dune -400
Best Costume Design
- Favorite: Cruella -650
- Long Shot: Dune +400
- Thom's No. 1 Ranking: Cruella -650
- Thom's Pick: Cruella -650
Best Makeup & Hairstyle
- Favorite: The Eyes of Tammy Faye -300
- Long Shot: Dune +500
- Thom's No. 1 Ranking: The Eyes of Tammy Faye -300
- Thom's Pick: The Eyes of Tammy Faye -300
Best Animated Film
- Favorite: Encanto -800
- Long Shot: The Mitchell's vs. The Machines +500
- Thom's No. 1 Ranking: The Mitchell's vs. The Machines +500
- Thom's Pick: Encanto -800
Best International Film
- Favorite: Drive My Car -10000
- Long Shot: The Worst Person in the World +1200
- Thom's No. 1 Ranking: Drive My Car -10000
- Thom's Pick: Drive My Car -10000
Best Documentary
- Favorite: Summer of Soul -300
- Long Shot: Attica +1000
- Thom's No. 1 Ranking: Flee +230
- Thom's Pick: Flee +230
Best Film Editing
- Favorite: Dune -110
- Long Shot: tick, tick... BOOM! +1200
- Thom's No. 1 Ranking: tick, tick... BOOM! +1200
- Thom's Pick: tick, tick... BOOM! +1200
Best Sound
- Favorite: Dune -650
- Long Shot: Belfast +2500
- Thom's No. 1 Ranking: West Side Story +400
- Thom's Pick: Dune -650
Best Score
- Favorite: Dune -650
- Long Shot: Encanto +1100
- Thom's No. 1 Ranking: Dune -650
- Thom's Pick: Dune -650
Best Song
- Favorite: No Time to Die (No Time to Die) -275
- Long Shot: Be Alive (King Richard) +700
- Thom's No. 1 Ranking: Be Alive (King Richard) +700
- Thom's Pick: No Time to Die (No Time to Die) -275
Best Visual Effects
- Favorite: Dune -3000
- Long Shot: Spider-Man: No Way Home +1000
- Thom's No. 1 Ranking: Dune -3000
- Thom's Pick: Dune -3000
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