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Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:49 PM

Game 6 Predictions & Odds: Rays vs. Dodgers

  • October 27, 2020
  • By Tom Wilkinson

After four straight high-scoring games that went over the total to start the World Series, the Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays played their first game to go under the total on Sunday night.

It didn’t look like Game 5 would go under after their were five runs scored in the first three innings, but both bullpens were spectacular and combined to allow just five baserunners and no earned runs in 7.1 innings of work.

A day off on Monday means that both bullpens should be fully loaded once more for a decisive Game 6 on Tuesday, October 27.

World Series Game 6 Preview and Predictions

Betting Resources

Game 6 Betting Odds - Rays vs. Dodgers

Line Movements

  • Money-Line: Los Angeles Dodgers -140 / Tampa Bay Rays +130
  • Run-Line: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+140) / Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 (-160)
  • Total: 8 (Over -120, Under +100)
  • Updated Series Price: Los Angeles -650, Tampa Bay +475

Game 5 Recap

Tyler Glasnow struggled with his control again in Game 5. Glasnow threw 102 pitches in five innings, allowing all of the Dodgers’ runs in a 4-2 loss for the Rays.

The Dodgers only had six hits, but they made them count as Joc Pederson and Max Muncy both hit solo home runs in the win.

Meanwhile, Clayton Kershaw pitched well for the Dodgers. He allowed seven baserunners in 5.2 innings of work, but he only allowed two runs to pick up his second win of the World Series.

After watching the 'over' cash in the first four games of the World Series, we finally saw an 'under' ticket cash in Game 5.

The game was actually on a good pace to lean to the high side as Los Angeles led 4-2 after five innings, but the bullpens showed up late and neither team scored in the final four innings.

The 'over' is 5-0 in first-five inning wagers in the World Series.

Los Angeles did cash on the run-line again, going 3-0 when it wins in the series.

2020 Playoff Betting Results

Game 6 Pitching Analysis

Starting Pitchers

  • Blake Snell
  • Tony Gonsolin

Manager Kevin Cash will ask Blake Snell to lead Tampa Bay to a victory in Game 6. Snell was in good form when he started for the Rays in Game 2, striking out nine batters in 4.2 innings of hitless baseball. However, he couldn’t get out of the fifth inning. After putting away the first two batters, Snell went walk, home run, walk, single before being pulled in favor of Nick Anderson.

The fifth inning has been a constant source of disappointment for Snell in the postseason. He has not made it to the sixth inning in any of his last four starts, allowing nine baserunners, six earned runs, and three home runs in the fifth inning. Generally, Snell pitches well until the fifth inning, so Cash might jump the gun and use his starter for four innings before turning to the bullpen for the last five frames.

The Dodgers will match Snell against Tony Gonsolin, just like they did in Game 2.

L.A. manager Dave Roberts used Gonsolin as an opener in that game, but he could go deeper this time around. Gonsolin pitched just 1.1 innings last week before handing the ball off.

That was Gonsolin’s shortest outing of the postseason. He hasn’t looked great though, allowing five earned runs in 4.1 innings against Atlanta in Game 2 of the NLCS and two earned runs in two innings of work in Game 7 of that series. Gonsolin was much better during the regular season, posting a 2.31 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP in 46.2 innings of action.


Game 6 Bullpen Analysis

We didn’t see Nick Anderson or Pete Fairbanks for Tampa Bay in Game 5, so one of those two relievers is likely to be the first out of the pen. Cash told reporters that he planned on being aggressive with his bullpen on Tuesday, and that probably means he will yank Snell if he gets in too much trouble early.

Anderson, Fairbanks, and Diego Castillo might all be used for more than an inning since they are the three best arms, and there is no tomorrow for the Rays if they lose Game 6.

Dustin May might be the only Dodgers’ reliever that will be unavailable in Game 6. May threw 30 pitches in Game 5, so he is likely to get some additional rest along with the day off on Monday.

If the Dodgers have a narrow lead, it will be interesting to see what Roberts decides to do in the final innings. He wants to trust Kenley Jansen, but the long-time reliever has been a mess in his two World Series appearances.

Players to Watch - Rays

If it wasn’t for Randy Arozarena, the Rays never would have reached the World Series. Almost every hitter has struggled on this roster outside of Arozarena.

He has set numerous postseason records, and he just broke another on Sunday with his 27th hit of the 2020 playoffs. The Dodgers have not elected to pitch around him just yet, but he has reached base 10 times and has two home runs in this series.

Will anybody else step up?

Tampa Bay’s entire infield has struggled from the plate.

Brandon Lowe, Willy Adames, and Joey Wendle are all hitting .200 or less than postseason, and all three players don’t have an OPS above .540. That has really limited the Rays’ run production, so at least one player out of this group needs to have a big performance in Game 6.

Players to Watch - Dodgers

Mookie Betts only has five hits in the World Series, but he has made his presence felt. Betts is a constant threat to steal whenever he gets on base, and he has played excellent defense in the outfield.

We have seen him take more walks in the postseason than he did in the regular season too, allowing the Dodgers’ power hitters to have the potential to make an even bigger impact.

Max Muncy doesn’t have the same recognition as other stars on the Dodgers, but he has been fantastic in the World Series. He has reached base a whopping 12 times, drawing a walk in every game. Muncy has made excellent contact, striking out to Tampa Bay pitchers just three times, and he has the same number of walks and K’s this postseason.

The World Series MVP favorite continues to be Corey Seager. Seager mashed once again in Game 5, and he now has eight hits and five walks against the Rays. This has been a breakout postseason for the shortstop, as he never posted a batting average higher than .237 or an OPS above .743 in his previous four postseasons.

World Series Game 6 Predictions

The Rays have the better bullpen, and although Snell has had his issues, he is a better option than Gonsolin. This is a solid situation in which to bet Tampa Bay.

I'm also backing the offense for the Rays to show up, which has been a common factor in their wins. The club is averaging 5.1 runs per game in 11 wins and has scored four-plus in eight of the victories.

  • Score Prediction: Tampa Bay 6 Los Angeles 5
  • Best Bet: Tampa Bay +130
  • Best Bet: Tampa Bay Team Total Over 3.5

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