Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres Game 1 Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Philadelphia Phillies travel to meet the San Diego Padres Tuesday for Game 1 of the NLCS. First pitch is scheduled for 8:03 PM ET at Petco Park in San Diego, California and can be viewed on FS1.  

Updated on 04/25/2024

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PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES vs. SAN DIEGO PADRES BETTING PREDICTION

Philadelphia managed to wrap up its series with the Braves in four games. The Phillies are 5-1 SU this postseason and have looked good on both sides of the ball. The offense has caught fire, averaging 5.3 runs per game through six games and the bullpen has an impressive team ERA of 2.55. Alongside the Padres, I would have to say that the Phillies look like the hottest team in the playoffs as being the underdog in back-to-back series has not phased them in the least bit. The Phillies have not officially named a starter for Game 1, but it will more than likely be the RHP Zack Wheeler (12-7, 2.82 ERA). 

San Diego pulled off the biggest upset of the postseason after defeating the Dodgers in four games. A comeback win in Game 4 to clinch the series has to be a confidence boost for this team, especially since the Dodgers dominated the Padres during the regular season. San Diego is now 5-2 SU in these playoffs and things are cooking for both the offense and bullpen. The offense comes into this matchup averaging 4.42 runs per game throughout the playoffs while the bullpen has a team ERA of 2.80. San Diego’s ace Yu Darvish (16-8, 3.10 ERA) is expected to start Game 1.  

This should be an excellent series, as both teams have been riding the momentum from their Wild Card Series. While there is always value in the Phillies when Wheeler takes the mound, I give the Padres the slight edge in this one because of the home-field advantage. Petco Park has been rocking the past two games and I would expect the same energy Tuesday. Back the Padres in Game 1.

Score Prediction: Padres 4, Phillies 3
Best Bet: Padres ML (-120)

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES vs. SAN DIEGO PADRES BETTING ODDS

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PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES vs. SAN DIEGO PADRES BETTING RESOURCES

• Date: Tuesday, October 18, 2022
• Matchup: NL East vs. NL West
• Venue: Petco Park
• Location: San Diego, California
• Time-TV: 8:03 p.m. ET – FS1
• Expert Picks

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES BETTING ANALYSIS

After beating the Braves in four games the Phillies are now 93-76 SU and 87-82 ATS this season. The total has gone over in eight of their last 12 games. Following this trend, the total has gone over in seven straight games when playing an NL West opponent. Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in their last six games against San Diego and 6-3 SU in their last nine games on the road. The Phillies are also 7-2 SU in their last nine games when playing on the road against the Padres.  

Philadelphia’s offense has been playing very well as of late. Throughout its seven playoff games it has a batting average of .237, on-base percentage of .317, slugging percentage of .400 and have scored 32 runs. DH Bryce Harper has arguably been the hottest player in the league this postseason, batting 10-for-23 (.435) at the plate with three home runs and six RBIs. LF Kyle Schwarber is still looking to find his rhythm, batting 1-for-20 (.050) at the plate with zero home runs and two RBIs. If he can find a way to get going this offense will be a nightmare for opposing pitchers.  

The Phillies bullpen held the Braves to just four runs in their final two games of the series. Throughout the postseason they have held opponents to a batting average of .181, have a WHIP of 0.96, and team ERA of 2.55. Wheeler is expected to start Game 1. Wheeler went 12-7 SU this season with an ERA of 2.82 and gave up 125 hits, 48 earned runs, and struck out 163 batters in 153.0 innings of work. In his most recent postseason start against the Braves, Wheeler gave up four hits and three runs in 6.0 innings.  

SAN DIEGO PADRES BETTING ANALYSIS

San Diego is 94-75 SU and 77-92 ATS after upsetting the Dodgers. The total has gone over in eight of its last 10 games and four of its last five played at Petco Park. Going against these trends, the total has gone under in 11 of their last 15 games against the Phillies. The Padres are 1-4 SU in their last five games when playing at home against Philadelphia and 4-2 SU in their last six games when playing an opponent from the NL East division.  

The Padres offense has been solid thus far in the postseason, averaging right around five runs per game. As a team in the playoffs San Diego has a batting average of .239, on base percentage of .314, slugging percentage of .389 and have scored 31 runs. 3B Manny Machado has been the MVP for the Padres as he is batting 8-for-27 (.296) at the plate with two home runs and five RBIs. CF Trent Grisham has also come up big for the Padres this postseason, going 8-for-21 (.381) with three home runs and five RBIs.  

San Diego’s bullpen allowed the Dodgers just 12 total runs in their most recent series. Pretty impressive considering LA was the highest scoring team in the league during the regular season. Throughout the playoffs the Padres are holding opponents to a batting average of .210, have a WHIP of 1.18 and team ERA of 2.80. Darvish will get the start in Game 1. Darvish went 16-8 SU this season with an ERA of 3.10 and gave up 148 hits, 67 earned runs, and struck out 197 batters in 194.2 innings. In his most recent playoff start against the Dodgers, Darvish gave up seven hits and three runs in 5 innings.  

KEY PLAYERS

• PHI: Bryce Harper - DH/OF (Postseason: .435, 3 2B, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 1.437 OPS)
• PHI: Jean Segura - SS (Postseason: .389, 2 2B, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 1 SB, .976 OPS)
• SND: Austin Nola - C (Postseason: .381, 2 2B, 4 RBI, 3 BB, .916 OPS)
• SND: Manny Machado - 3B (Postseason: .296, 2 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, .980 OPS)

PROBABLE PITCHERS

• PHI: Zack Wheeler - RHP (0-1, 2.19 ERA, 9 K, 12.1 IP in 2 Postseason starts)
• SND: Yu Darvish - RHP (2-0, 3.00 ERA, 11 K, 12 IP in 2 Postseason starts)