Nathan’s Contest Betting Trends & Action Report
Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest betting trends aren't necessarily lighting up the sky like a Fourth of July fireworks show. But trust us, gambling on gluttony is going on.
No surprise, 15-time champion Joey Chestnut is the massive favorite in odds to win the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest. And on the women's side, eight-time champ Miki Sudo is a similarly heavy chalk.
BetMGM sports trader Christian Cipollini provides the skinny on Nathan's Contest odds, betting trends and action.
Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds
Top Dog
These days, Chestnut is as much a part of Americana as baseball, apple pie and, well, hot dogs on this annual celebration of Independence Day. He's riding a seven-year winning streak into the July 4 festivities. The last time he lost was in 2015 to Matt Stonie, 62-60. Prior to that setback, Chestnut was on an eight-year win streak.
With that kind of hot dog history, BetMGM has Chestnut as a -5000 favorite to devour the frankfurter field. That's a tough price to swallow for most bettors – it would take a $5,000 wager to win $100. But that's not necessarily sending bettors to more attractive underdog odds.
"Not many underdogs are taking bets. The second favorite, Geoffrey Esper (+1200), has a small amount of bets. But so far, it seems nobody is doubting the king," Cipollini said.
And with good reason. Last year, Chestnut downed 63 dogs, his lowest total since that loss to Stonie. However, Chestnut won the 2022 crown while fending off a protester who stormed the stage. Undeterred, Chestnut put the protester in a chokehold until security took control, and he then proceeded to beat Esper by 16 hot dogs/buns.
But again, that -5000 price is daunting. Esper is taking the most tickets among the 10 choices on the men's odds board. Still, even at huge-favorite odds, Chestnut is taking nine times more money than Esper.
Bettors are also looking at alternate markets in search of value on Joey Jaws.
"More people are betting on Chestnut's Over/Under than the main outright market," Cipollini said of Nathan's Contest betting trends as of Sunday afternoon. "We also have a line for him to break his own record. It seems most people think he will win; the number of hot dogs is the only question."
BetMGM opened Chestnut's total at 73.5, with the Under a -120 favorite and Over a -105 'dog. However, with the weather delay, that total has dropped to 71.5, with the Over -120 and Under even money.
In the 2021 contest, Chestnut powered through a record 76 dogs. The prop on him breaking that record is priced at Under 76.5 -350/Over 76.5 +250.
"They're mostly betting the Over on both," Cipollini said.
Hey Miki
On the women's side, Sudo opened and remains a -5000 favorite at BetMGM, just like Chestnut. Sudo won seven consecutive Nathan's titles from 2014-20, but sat out the 2021 contest while pregnant.
She quickly returned to form last year, finishing off 40 hot dogs/buns. In 2020, she set the record by pounding 48 hot dogs/buns. Still, Sudo isn't seen as invincible, odds notwithstanding
"We do have some people betting Michelle Lesco," Cipollini said of the +1600 second choice. "Miki doesn’t have the same name recognition that Chestnut has. So it seems a few people like the juicy odds on Lesco."
Indeed, Lesco is taking the most tickets and by far the most money. She's the only other women's competitive eater listed separately in BetMGM's Nathan's Hot Dog odds. All other competitors are folded into a Field bet at +2500.
As with Chestnut, BetMGM is offering an Over/Under on Sudo.
"The total opened at 44.5 and has moved to 43.5, so bettors like the Under," Cipollini said, noting that at 43.5, the price is -115 on both sides.
BetMGM also has a prop on whether Sudo will break her record, with Under 48.5 at -275/Over 48.5 at +200.
Needs & Liabilities
So, when breaking down outright futures and props in Nathan's Contest betting trends, what's the ideal outcome for BetMGM in this July 4 food fest?
"Miki and Joey winning likely will be fine, due to their -5000 prices," Cipollini said. "Chestnut winning but going Under 73.5 will likely be our best outcome. The Over/Unders are where things would swing."
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