Game 6 – Nuggets vs. Suns Picks, Predictions, Odds

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The NBA Western Conference Semifinals resume on Thursday night with what could potentially be the sixth and final matchup between the Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns. Coverage begins from the Footprint Center in Phoenix at 10:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.

The Nuggets are 1-7 SU in their last eight road games. (Getty)


The Suns appeared to be thoroughly outmatched early in this series after falling behind 0-2 with ugly road losses in Games 1 and 2, and to further the issue, Chris Paul suffered a groin injury in the second matchup, sidelining him for the foreseeable future.

However, No Paul = No Problem in Games 3 and 4, as the Suns bounced back with back-to-back home wins to even up the series at 2-2, despite Denver receiving 53 points and 11 assists from Nikola Jokic in one of the contests.

In Game 5, though, the series shifted back to Denver again, and the Nuggets immediately returned to peak form, as they shot 49% from the field and 48% from long-range on the way to a comfortable 118-102 home victory in their most recent meeting on Tuesday night.

At home, the Nuggets are capable of trading punches with the best of the best, as they rank 2nd in offensive rating and 6th in defensive rating on their homefloor.

So, for casual basketball fans, it might’ve been a bit jarring to see them post a miserable net rating of -6.2 on the road in Games 3 and 4, and then suddenly flip the script again in Game 5; but for bettors that have followed this Denver’ squad throughout the year, the wide contrast in their numbers based on game location certainly doesn’t come as a surprise.

For whatever reason, Denver has been a disaster on the road all year, and the sample size has become far too large to ignore. The Nuggets posted a record of 19-22 at home during the regular season, while ranking 14th in offensive rating and 21st in defensive rating in those contests, and nothing’s changed in the playoffs either, considering they’ve posted a record of 1-3 in their four road postseason matchups thus far.

Several question marks surrounded the Suns heading into this series, however, in the eight regular season contests that Kevin Durant played with them, plus their five-game set against L. A. in the previous round, Phoenix posted a near perfect 12-1 record to go alongside an offensive rating of 122 ORtg, which would pace the entire league by a comfortable margin if they managed to maintain a similar level of efficiency; and don’t forget, the Suns also rank Top 10 in defensive rating as well. But do they have the depth to beat Denver?

In Game 5, the Suns appeared to be thoroughly outmatched on the road yet again, just like they were in their first two road matchups of this series, as Devin Booker and co. shot just 43% from the field and knocked down 9-of-27 three-point attempts in the most recent meeting between these teams. 

However, don’t dive too deep into the Game 5 numbers. Neither squad has won a road game in this series, and they’ve given us very little reason to believe that Thursday’s contest might breed a different result. Lay the points Phoenix in Game 6.

Score Prediction: Suns 119, Nuggets 112
Best Bet: Suns -3 (-110)

Take PHX!

DEN @ PHO Odds


Date: Thursday, May 11, 2023
Venue: Footprint Center
Location: Phoenix, Arizona
TV-Time: TNT, 10:00 p.m. ET
Expert Picks

NBA Finals Betting Odds


Denver Nuggets
SU: 60-32
ATS: 51-41
O/U: 44-48
PPG: 115.8
OPPG: 112.5

Phoenix Suns
: 51-41
ATS: 47-44-1
O/U: 49-43
PPG: 113.6
OPPG: 111.6

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)
Points Per Game (PPG), Opponents Points Per Game (OPPG)

The Suns are 5-0 SU in their last five home games against Denver. (Getty)


  • The total has gone OVER in six of Denver's last nine games.
  • The Nuggets are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games.
  • The Nuggets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against Phoenix.
  • The Suns are 2-4 ATS in their last six games.
  • The total has gone OVER in nine of Phoenix's last 13 games.
  • The Suns are 13-6 SU in their last 19 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of Phoenix's last seven home games.
  • The Nuggets are 1-7 SU in their last eight road games.
  • The Suns are 5-0 SU in their last five home games against Denver.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the last six matchups between Phoenix and Denver.