NBA Best Bets Today | Expert Picks for Saturday, March 2

Betting on or against the Jazz has not been kind to us but we have a short memory and will back Utah in this situation against the Heat. Orlando play at Orlando on Thursday and lost a pretty tight game by 8-points. They are in Florida and have a big scheduling edge here.

Miami is home for the first time after a 6-game road trip which finished on Thursday night in Denver. The Heat are 15-13 SU, 12-16 ATS at home this season with an average MOV of +0.1PPG which is bottom 10 of the NBA.

Utah on the road this season is 9-20 SU and haven't been very good but this is a great situation for them to stay close with the Heat. The Jazz are 16-15-1 ATS when coming off a SU loss with an average net differential of minus -3.9PPG.

It's a tough scheduling situation for Miami so let's grab the points with the Jazz.

Denver beat Miami on Thursday 103-97 in a rematch of the NBA Finals from last June. The Nuggets are now 5-0 since the All-Star break and within striking distance of the top spot in the Western Conference, just a game behind Minnesota. Denver is only 17-14 S/U on the road this season and the average scoring differential for the Nuggets is modest at +4.2 this season despite being 22 games above .500.

The Lakers are in the #10 position in the West but are 21-9 S/U at home to force a near-even price Saturday. Los Angeles needed overtime to beat Washington on Thursday but that was the second game in as many nights after a huge rivalry win over the Clippers in comeback fashion.

That the Lakers still managed to win is a sign of a team that has grown, and Los Angeles is quietly 9-3 S/U in the past 12 games through a difficult stretch of the schedule. One of the losses came hosting Denver less than a month ago in what was a very competitive game despite an eight-point win for the Nuggets. The Lakers shot just 32 percent in that game beyond the arc but had a turnover edge.

The Lakers have lost seven in a row in this series with the four-game sweep last May in the playoffs included but the Lakers have won S/U in two of the past three regular season home meetings.

The Lakers have 13 top 10 wins this season, second most in the NBA behind the Thunder, as this group has been able to rise to the occasion and the price adjustment from the February meeting is telling tonight.