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Dinero Tracker – Feb. 11

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
5 minute read
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Last night's ATS Records
NBA: 2-0 | NCAA BB: 7-1

A big Saturday helped stop the college hoops bleeding. Only Northwestern lost, which you can read about in our daily whiff below. Winning is fun. The NBA lock is now 18-for-26 (69.2%) since Jan. 11. Here's Saturday's recap, complete with some of the highlights (and one lowlight):

SUNDAY'S FREE SELECTION

The pick: Duke -9
The Blue Devils have been a major disappointment in that they're far too talented to be so incompetent on defense, but these are all good lessons for them to be learning with the NCAA Tournament still one month away. My expectation for today's trip to Atlanta is that they'll take advantage of Georgia Tech's offensive shortcomings to gain some confidence, find a rhythm and win by double-digits. Lay the points and ride Duke.

SATURDAY'S FREE SELECTION

The pick: Texas Tech ML -117
This is a massive game for both programs, each of which have illusions of making the NCAA Tournament. The Red Raiders have won five straight and have already made it to 20 wins, so pulling off a victory at home here would do wonders for Kansas State's resume, while a loss would drop them to 6-6 in Big 12 play. Look for a competitive game here, but expect rebounding to make the difference as the visitors pull off a win in the Little Apple. Ride Texas Tech on the money line to avoid laying the point on the road.



Result: The Red Raiders put together an excellent performance in Manhattan, where the customers ended up booing the Wildcats as the final seconds ticked down. After the first half closed at 27, Texas Tech dominated most of the second and rolled 66-47. Customers also got the under to hit the day's lone in-game parlay. Texas Tech held K-State to 13-for-45 from the field and imposed their will. Fun freebie win.

SATURDAY'S LOCK

The pick: Bucks -4.5
The Bucks couldn't get much done in Miami last night, but will fortunately wrap up their Florida trip in Orlando against a depleted Magic squad that has to find themselves a backup point guard. Jonathan Simmons is playing at less than 100 percent and is the guy best-equipped to try and slow down Giannis Antentokounmpo, so I'd give the Magic little shot to hang around here. Lay the points and ride Milwaukee, guaranteed.

Result: The Magic hung around all night, leading at the break atnd pulling within 102-100 on a Smmons 3-pointer with 1:49 left, but the Bucks got a huge 3-point play from Antetokounmpo and put the game away at the stripe, winning 111-104.



SATURDAY'S OTHER LOCK

The pick: Texas A&M -5.5
Look for the Aggies to dominate this home game against the 'Cats, who won't be able to win the rebounding battle here. A&M is typically excellent in College Station and gets to set the tone here on both sides of the ball since John Calipari's team has yet to prove it can excel on the road against tough competition. Ride Texas A&M, guaranteed.

Result: The Wildcats hung tough in the first half and got into the locker room with a lead, but A&M took the game over in the final 20 minutes, building up a lead that got a high as 23 points. The Aggies shot 7-for-9 from 3-point range and hit two of every three shots in rolling to an 85-74 win.

TOTAL RECALL

The pick: St. John's/Marquette OVER 150.5
Coming off two excellent performances against Duke and Villanova, St. John's appears vulnerable and this is a spot the Golden Eagles should capitalize to get a win in, but that's not guaranteed. Expect Marquette to push tempo in what will end up a high-scoring affair regardless of who wins. Back the over in this one.

Result: The Red Storm did it again, riding Shamorie Ponds' 44 points over visiting Marquette 86-78. Steve Wojciechowski admitted not having an answer for him, which was obviously the key in overcoming a low-scoring first half to secure this total.

SWING AND A MISS

The pick: Northwestern +4.5
This is a fantastic opportunity to fade the depleted Terps. The Wildcats pulled off the win they absolutely had to have against Michigan and now have the ultimate weapon in college basketball this time of year. Belief. We're about to go on a run. Except next week. Next week, everyone loses their minds. Maybe it's Valentine's Day-related.

Result: This was the lone blemish, and it got me twice since I went in for a second half I expected would go my way and got turned away. Maryland won both halves in a 73-57 victory over the fading Wildcats, who never even led.

PROOF OF CLAIRVOYANCE

The pick: Warriors -10.5
Look for the Warriors to run away and hide here. Although Steve Kerr has cried out that his team is exhausted, they were able to beat the Mavs badly the other night on the strength of a third-quarter run and are still capable of blowing past teams when they lock in. Without Kawhi Leonard, the Spurs aren't going to be able to hang around and defend here. Lay the points and ride Golden State.  

Result: San Antonio dominated the first quarter, leading 37-27, but the Warriors then got serious and won the second and third quarter by 13 points each time. The Spurs shot 5-for-27 from 3-point range, while Klay Thompson matched that output in just six attempts. Golden State rolled rather easily, 122-105, and we can only hope Kawhi can get healthy so that the Spurs can once again be relevant in a few months.


Follow Tony Mejia on Twitter at @TonyMejiaNBA or e-mail him at mejia@vegasinsider.com

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