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Pacers at Nuggets Preview

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
4 minute read
Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS)

Betting Odds Breakdown

Denver opened as a 1 ½-point home favorite with a total of 211 ½.

Eye Test

The Pacers were expected to finish second in the Central Division this season and despite not having their best player, Victor Oladipo, the club has lived up to the expectations and sits in second place. Indiana is currently the No. 5 seed in the East but its record has been helped with a 16-5 mark at home and an 18-7 record vs. teams below .500.

Denver currently sits in the first place of the Northwest Division and if the playoffs started today, the Nuggets would be the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. The Nuggets have stepped up against winning teams this season, going 9-5 and a 5-0 record in the division has helped their rise.

Current Form

Indiana has won four straight and five of its last six games while going 4-2 ATS during this span. Four of the wins came against losing clubs but a 101-95 win over Philadelphia on Jan. 13 was certainly a confidence booster although the 76ers didn’t have All-Star Joel Embiid in the lineup.

The Nuggets have gone 7-3 over their last 10 games and they enter Sunday’s game with a 5-1 record in their last six. The one loss during this span was surprising, a 111-103 setback to Cleveland on Jan. 11 as a 12 ½-point home underdog.

Head-to-Head

The pair just met at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis on Jan. 2 and the Nuggets (-1) captured a 124-116 road win over the Pacers.  Including that loss, Denver has gone 7-3 in the last 10 encounters in this series. At home is where the Nuggets have really thrived, winning nine in a row against the Pacers dating back to 2009. Make a note that the last four outcomes at the Pepsi Center were decided by three points or less.

Inside the Stats (Home/Away)

Points Per Game:
Indiana 109.2 (107.8)
Denver 108.8 (108.5)

Points Allowed:
Indiana 106.1 (107.2)
Denver 104.9 (103.1)

Home-Away Records

-- Denver 17-5 SU, 9-11-2 ATS
-- Indiana 10-10 SU, 11-9 ATS

Situational (Non-Conference Matchup)

The Pacers are a respectable 8-4 both SU and ATS against the Western Conference this season and that includes a 2-2 record away from home.

The Nuggets have gone 12-6 SU and 8-8-2 ATS versus the Eastern Conference this season, which includes an 8-2 mark at home. Even though the Pepsi Center is a tough out due to the high altitude, the Nuggets are just 4-5-1 ATS for bettors.

Score Projection

Denver 105 Indiana 103

The VegasInsider.com Score Projections are produced daily for all NBA matchups. More...

Betcha Didn’t Know

Denver has been favored in 21 of its 22 home games this season and the point-spread was greater than three points in 19 of those matchups. The two games at the Pepsi Center expected to be tight came against Houston (-1) and the L.A. Lakers (-2.5). The Nuggets went 1-1 in those games, beating the Rockets (105-95) and falling to the Lakers (96-105).

NBA Expert Picks – Tony Mejia

Indiana opens the second of its season-long three five-game road trips in Denver and must be ready to face a challenging back-to-back since it will play in Salt Lake City on Martin Luther King Day. I believe his is going to be the Pacers’ best chance to grab a win given that they haven’t prevailed on the second night of a back-to-back in each of their last four tries. At first glance, this spread is awfully surprising given the venue and it’s clear that the books don’t expect the Nuggets to overcome the absence of point guard Jamal Murray, shooting guard Gary Harris and forward Paul Millsap. Best Bet: Indiana

VI Prediction Tool

The VegasInsider.com Prediction resource gives an edge to either team in eight specific categories listed above and there are instances where both clubs receive a positive edge (). Depending on how you weigh the below factors could provide more reason to fade or follow those teams in your wagers.

VI Edge Predictions
Categories Indiana Pacers Denver Nuggets
Eye Test
Current Form -
Head-to-Head -
Inside the Stats -
Home-Away -
Situational -
Score Projection -
Betcha Didn't Know -
Expert Picks -

Total Talk (Over-Under)

Denver: 18-23 (Home, 14-8 Under)
Indiana: 20-20 (Away, 10-9 Under)

The Nuggets have seen the ‘under’ cash in three straight games at the Pepsi Center and five of the last seven.

The Pacers are on a 4-1-1 ‘over’ run in their last six games away from home.

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