Game 1 Predictions & Odds: Heat vs. Pacers

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Tuesday, August 18, 2020

• August 17, 2020
• By Michael Crosson
• VegasInsider.com

Red-hot TJ Warren and the (4) Indiana Pacers will take on Jimmy Butler and the (5) Miami Heat in the second game of Tuesday’s NBA Playoff slate in Disney’s Wide World of Sports in Orlando, Florida.

Betting Resources

• Matchup: Eastern Conference Game 1
• Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
• Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
• Location: Orlando, Florida
• Date: Tuesday, Aug. 18, 2020
• Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
• Bet: BetMGM | BetRivers | FanDuel | PointsBet | All

Betting Odds – Pacers vs Heat

Despite Indiana being the higher seed in this matchup, Miami entered Game 1 as a five-point favorite after splitting its games in the bubble, but that line is slowly starting to swing back towards the Pacers direction as it now sits at -4 at most books as of Tuesday morning.

The total opened at 217.5, but that number is slowly falling. The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas was the first major book to drop the line down to 216 on Monday night.

Line Movements

Point-Spread Odds

• Indiana +4
• Miami -4

Money Line Odds

• Indiana +148
• Miami -177

Total Odds

• Over 216.5
• Under 216.5

Series Odds

• Indiana +250
• Miami -325

Despite being the higher seed, the Miami Heat have been installed as favorites over the Indiana Pacers in their opening round series. (AP)

Inside The Betting Stats

(Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS)

Overall

• Miami: 44-29 SU, 36-36-1 ATS
• Indiana: 45-28 SU, 39-29-5 ATS

Bubble

• Miami: 3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS
• Indiana: 6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS

Indiana enters this series as a healthy underdog, despite its typical key players getting healthier by the day and the explosive emergence of TJ Warren onto the scene in the bubble.

The Pacers enter Game 1 of this first round series boasting a 6-2 SU record in the bubble, with their only losses coming in contests against Devin Booker and the untouchable Phoenix Suns, and in Jimmy Butler’s grudge match with TJ Warren following their fireworks pre-quarantine.

Miami enters this contest on a 3-5 SU skid, which ultimately led to its fate as the 5th seed in the East, but there is no need for concern as Jimmy Butler sat out during four of Miami’s eight reseeding games and is healthy now along with other additional key players for Miami.

Pacers vs Heat – Head-to-Head

Prior to the NBA shutdown, fireworks erupted as Warren and Butler exchanged words, resulting in the ejection of the Pacers forward and Butler calling him “trash” in and interview.

Miami and Indiana split two games in the bubble. Butler and company dominated in the long-awaited grudge match before Indiana captured its 8th and final game against the Heat that would ultimately determine who gets to wear home jerseys for Game 7 if there is one.

Warren has been phenomenal for the Pacers inside the bubble thus far, scoring 32+ points in four of his six contests in the restart, but was only able to muster up 12 points against Butler in his matchup with the Heat. If he receives a player prop total stats line similar to his averages in the bubble, look for him to stay under in this Game 1 contest.

Over-Under Total Notes

Overall

• Miami: 43-30 O/U
• Indiana: 37-34-2 O/U

Bubble

• Miami: 4-4 O/U
• Indiana: 3-5 O/U

The total between the Pacers and the Heat this season split 2-2, and Tuesday's number has stooped down to 216 for this Game 1 contest after countering consecutive ‘overs’ with consecutive ‘unders’ in four matchups between these teams.

The first matchup between these teams in the bubble was set at 224 based on their first two matchups in the regular season. Both matchups between these two teams in the bubble went 'under' as the first matchup resulted in a blowout win for the Heat in which the Pacers tallied just 92 points, similarly to the Heats total of just 92 points in the final game between these teams.

On the contrary, the two regular season matchups between these teams went 'over' their totals, and both games would’ve cleared the total of 216 as well.

Key Injuries

• Derrick Jones Jr.: Neck Questionable

Pacers

• Domontas Sabonis: Foot – Out

There is a handful of guys listed as game-time decisions for this Pacers-Heat series opener, but the only one that appears to actually be missing this game is Domantas Sabonis, who is a huge gap to fill for the Pacers inside. Don’t necessarily look to the Pacers big men to receive the missing volume for Sabonis, it should be sprinkled across the Pacers electric guard tandem.

Game 1 Best Bet Pick

I am rolling with the low side here in this game, as I expect to see and old-school defensive matchup between these two teams with great defense from both sides. Points should come at a premium in Game 1, as I expect Warren and Butler to be going at it the whole game, wearing each other down defensively.

Aside from Warren and Duncan Robinson, these teams have struggled to shoot the 3-ball well in Orlando. Look for this opening matchup between Miami and Indiana to stay Under for a 3rd straight contest.

Prediction: Heat 104, Pacers 99